Fairways Hit? Fuhgeddaboudit!

Ability to hit fairways has long been the traditional measure of golf driving accuracy. It is, after all, our goal when we stand on the tee of a par 4 or par 5 hole. But, like most traditional golf statistics, it is one-dimensional. That’s because it asks for a simple Yes/No answer to a question that forces us to focus mainly on the Yes. Why? Because conventional wisdom has us believing that ‘Yes’ is the most positive outcome. But think about it – is that really the case?

Over the past 18 years we have analyzed golf performance at every level – including PGA Tour players – and have concluded that hitting or missing fairways is a statistic of limited relevance. Of far greater importance is the character and severity of the miss. Did the ball land just in the light rough, in a bunker, behind a tree (with or without a shot?), disappear in a pond, or worst of all – go lost or OB?

The higher the level of the player’s golf game, the less relevant is the number of fairways hit to improvement or performance. A recent study of performance on the PGA Tour conducted by two professors at Northeastern University in Boston cited the declining importance of driving accuracy due primarily to increasing driving distances. To support this, during his 2007 seven-event winning streak, Tiger Woods hit only 61% of the fairways. In the final event of that streak at Torrey Pines, Tiger hit only 46% of the fairways en route to victory. Of far greater importance was the fact that Tiger’s tee shots resulted in an ERROR in only 2% of his total attempts. (ERROR = a result that was a penalty, or in a position from which he did not have a normal advancement opportunity for his next shot.)

At the amateur level, the frequency and severity of errors tends to be directly correlated to the handicap. In a study of single-digit handicap golfers that I conducted several years ago, I determined that over 80% of double bogeys began with an error from the tee. A double bogey is the dreaded, scoring anathema for this low handicap group. I have found that these errors have much more to do with long game effectiveness. And developing a strategy to avoid errors is much more important to the improvement process than focusing on the number of fairways hit.

Test your game:
•Step #1: Play your normal game and track your tee shot errors (Remember, ERROR = a penalty, or in a position from which there is not a normal advancement opportunity for your next shot) in your next few rounds to see where you stack up on the chart below. In a typical round, you will have 14 driving opportunities. One error would be 7% (1/14).

PGA Tour 5% errors
0-5 hcp 10%
6-10 hcp 19%
11-15 hcp 30%
16-25 hcp 42%
26-35 hcp 57%

Step #2: Next, play a few rounds where you make conscious choices to avoid these errors and see what effect it has on your score. This means selecting both the club and target that provides the greatest guarantee of success. It might mean using 3-wood or even 5-iron off the tee and playing away from potential trouble. It will take discipline. But if mistakes off the tee are a problem, you will be surprised at the improvements you will see.

(For more detailed information on your own personal Driving Performance, check out the game analysis options available at http://www.shotbyshot.com/.)

Avoid mistakes and improve your golf game - DUH!

Avoid mistakes? No S _ _ T, Sherlock!

Go ahead and say it. But before you click away, let’s take a look at the profile of “Average Joe” golfer, his scoring tendencies, and see how mistakes impact his scores.

Joe is a 15-19 handicap whose average score is 90. On the plus side of Joe's performance, he makes five pars a round and throws in an occasional birdie every 2.5 rounds. These good holes obviously indicate some talent, and enough good shots to keep him coming back. He has a solid game, often refered to as “Bogey Golf.”

This label is only accurate as it refers to Joe's total score. If he could limit his bad holes to no worse than bogey, he'd actually be a significantly better player – six shots better, to be exact. These six shots come in the form of four double-bogeys and one triple bogey per round. “Improve” these five bad holes to bogeys – and presto! – Joe is improves to the 10-14 handicap range.

What mistakes should be avoided?

That’s simple, avoid them all. But that’s just not realistic. I have found that every golfer is unique in how they find their way to the end score. But if you fall into Joe’s handicap range and/or routinely spoil your card with the big numbers mentioned above, I suggest you start analyzing your bad holes to identify your mistakes. Over a series of rounds, I promise you will see a pattern emerge. Once you do, discuss it with your pro and develop a strategy, practice regimen and mental approach to avoid them.

Try this:

Whenever you record a double-bogey or worse, indicate the type of shot or major facet that was the main cause or that led to the score. I recommend you use the following notation system. You can record these statistics on a blank line of your scorecard or in the margin under the appropriate hole(s).

• T = a drive or tee shot on a par 4 or 5
• A = approach shot; any attempt to hit a green from 50+ yards
• C = chip of pitch shots
• S = shots out of the sand within 50 yards of the green
• P = a 3-putt or worse from inside 25 feet

Do you find that you make a similar mistake each time you play a certain hole on your home course? Perhaps you can’t seem to miss a prominent water hazard or are drawn to the same OB stakes. Whether it is a given type of shot, a demanding hole or a combination thereof, once isolated, you and your pro will be able to address the problem. If you are good enough to make five pars a round, you are good enough to shape your game or your strategy around your most common mistakes and improve to the next level.

(If you find that Tee Shots are an issue for you, I have built a new feature called Driving Miss Diagnosis into the game analysis provided at www.ShotByShot.com. I recommend that you give it a try.)

What's wrong with Golf Stats?

When I took up golf seriously, I started keeping track of the “stats” that I read about in Golf Digest: Fairways Hit, Greens-in-Regulation, Sand Saves and Total Putts. I saved each round, created a simple spreadsheet and set about to learn exactly where I needed to improve. I became frustrated quickly as I encountered two major problems. First, the only stats that I had for comparison were those published on the PGA Tour. As a 14 handicap, the pros were obviously playing a dramatically different game. Worse than that, I could not draw any definitive correlation between my best and worst rounds using these traditional performance barometers. The good news: this experience motivated me to scrap these statistics and start over with data that would provide real insight.

In my view traditional statistics don’t work because golf is a multifaceted game, played in 3-dimensions – up, down, right, left, long and short. It cannot be properly represented by flat, YES or NO answers to 1-dimensional questions. What follows are the problems as well as the solutions that SHOT BY SHOT offers.

Fairways Hit:

Problem: The best example of the problem with traditional stats is the question of whether a player hit a fairway – or not. With traditional stats, a YES answer is always presumed to be a better outcome than a NO answer. But is this correct? Which would you rather have – a drive that ends up only 175 yards out but in the middle of the fairway, or a 275 yard rocket that ends up in the first cut of rough? And if you miss the fairway, wouldn’t you prefer the 275 yard rocket over a ball hit Out of Bounds or Lost? This stat treats the two misses equally.

Solution: To address this obvious flaw, SHOT BY SHOT.com will soon release a new feature: Driving “Miss Diagnosis.” Our users will categorize each of their missed fairways as one of five degrees of severity ranging from Best (a good lie/opportunity) to Worst (OB or Lost ball). We believe the insight presented will set a new standard in golf statistics and analysis.

Greens-in-regulation (GIR’s):

Problem: This is by far the most useful of the old-world stats because a YES tells us something definite and positive about that hole. There are two problems: First, most amateurs do not hit very many. The average, male 18 handicapper will hit less than 4 of 18 greens each round. Along with this, there is no indication of what happened, or how bad it was, on all those other holes.

Solution: To address this flaw, SHOT BY SHOT created our patented, Long Game Efficiency Index. We evaluate the ratio of total long game strokes to GIR’s that results in a complete overview of a player’s long game. An article was published on this innovation in the May 2006 Golf Digest.

Sand Saves:

Problem: Also known as a 1-putt following a greenside sand shot, this one stat actually encompasses two facets of the game – sand play and putting. Unfortunately traditional stats ignore the rest of the short game, which usually comprises a far greater number of shots per round but it also ignores Errors (shots that miss the green).

Solution: SHOT BY SHOT evaluates both Chip/Pitch and Sand facets by a combination of how close shots are hit to the hole and errors. We were the first to recognize the impact that errors had on the game and to build it into our analysis.

# Putts per round:

Problem: This stat is relatively easy to keep but has a major flaw in that it ignores the distances of the putting opportunities. A 2-putt from 3 feet counts exactly the same as a 2-putt from 75 feet. Would you balance your checkbook just based upon the number of checks you wrote? Let’s hope not!

Solution: SHOT BY SHOT was the first to include the distance of the first putting opportunity on each green, over 18 years ago. We have developed proprietary models for the accurate analysis of every putting opportunity. We can compare each player’s putting performance by distance range to that of their peer/target group and point out exactly where they need to practice.

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