The Problem with Traditional Golf Statistics

Niblicks of Truth is all about the right and wrong answers that can result from the use - and misuse - of golf statistics. One of the most frequently-asked questions from prospective users of our ShotByShot golf game analysis program is: “How can you tell me what I need to know about my tee game if you don’t track Fairways Hit?” At the risk of harping, whenever I hear this question I know that it's time to point out some of the flaws in traditional golf statistics.

In my view the main reason that traditional statistics don’t work is because golf is a multifaceted game, played in three dimensions – up, down, right, left, long and short. It cannot be properly represented by flat, YES or NO answers to one-dimensional questions. Here are some of my favorite examples:

Fairways Hit
This may be the best example of the shortcoming of traditional stats. Did a golfer hit the fairway – or not? With traditional stats, a YES answer is always presumed to be a better outcome than a NO answer. But is this correct? Which would you rather have – a drive that ends up only 175 yards out but in the middle of the fairway, or a 275 yard rocket that ends up in the first cut of rough? And if you miss the fairway, wouldn’t you prefer the 275 yard rocket over a ball hit Out of Bounds or Lost? The Fairways Hit stat treats those two misses equally.

Greens-in-regulation (GIR’s)
This is by far the most useful of the old-world stats because a YES tells us something definite and positive about the way that hole was played. There are two problems, however. First, most amateurs do not hit very many greens. The average, male 18 handicapper will hit less than 4 of 18 greens each round. Along with this, there is no indication of what happened - or how bad the miss was - on all of those other holes. So a big part of the story goes untold.

Sand Saves
Also known as a 1-putt following a greenside sand shot, the Sand Save stat actually encompasses two facets of the game – sand play and putting. Because it is a blend of the two, it can mask an unusual strength or weakness in one area or the other.

Unfortunately traditional stats ignore the rest of the short game, which usually comprises a far greater number of shots per round. And again, traditional stats tell a golfer nothing useful about the shots that miss the green.

# Putts per Round
This statistic is relatively easy to keep but has a major flaw in that it ignores the distances of the putting opportunities. A 2-putt from 3 feet counts exactly the same as a 2-putt from 75 feet. It’s like balancing your checkbook based upon the number of checks you wrote, and ignoring the amount. Not very helpful…

If anything I am saying here makes sense, and you believe that the ability to measure performance is a key component to improving your golf game, then the ShotByShot game analysis program is for you. Go to http://www.shotbyshot.com/ and check out the Free Trial.

How Has Tiger Woods Changed Golf - and Tiger?

With apologies to UJ, here's another entry about Tiger Woods. Hey, he is #1 in the WORLD!

Tiger clearly changed the look of the landscape in golf when he escalated the concept of training and fitness in golf to a new level. I remember when we were told by the "experts" that weight training would destroy our flexibility and inhibit our ability to make full swings. Today the winners are extremely fit. A good example is Lee Westwood. Five years ago Lee was a rolly-polly dough boy compared to the athlete that we saw contending for the Open title. This level of complete commitment to the sport is now much more the rule than the exception.

I am not the first to write about Tiger's routine but I did some research and found some interesting niblicks about what he has accomplished physiologically, and what he does to maintain his physical edge.

As a baseline, I learned that Tiger left Stanford in 1996 standing 6 foot, 2 and weighing 158 pounds. He has since put on 30 pounds of muscle. According to Tiger's website, his daily routine is as follows, and I have read elsewhere that it is repeated six days a week:

6:30 a.m. - One hour of cardio. Choice between endurance runs, sprints or biking

7:30 a.m. - One hour of lower weight training. 60-70 percent of normal lifting weight, high reps and multiple sets

8:30 a.m. - High protein/low-fat breakfast. Typically includes egg-white omelet with vegetables

9:00 a.m. - Two hours on the golf course. Hit on the range and work on swing

11:00 a.m. - Practice putting for 30 minutes to an hour

Noon - Play nine holes

1:30 p.m. - High protein/low-fat lunch. Typically includes grilled chicken or fish, salad and vegetables

2:00 p.m. - Three-to-four hours on the golf course. Work on swing, short game and occasionally play another nine holes

6:30 p.m. - 30 minutes of upper weight training. High reps

7:00 p.m. - Dinner and rest

(see http://web.tigerwoods.com/fitness/tigerDailyRoutine)

Does this make you rethink your routine? I know I am rethinking mine!

How Does Tiger Do It?

Any way he can! As an admitted statistical stalker of the World's #1, I have studied Tiger's Shot By Shot golf performance closely since he established his dominance in 1999. At the risk of restating the obvious, his win at Congressional was another example of Tiger's winning blueprint:

Long Game Efficiency
Tiger hits more greens in regulation and uses fewer long game shots in the process than his peers. At Congressional, Tiger averaged 13.75 GIR's and needed 33.15 long strokes (shots from outside 50 yards). Our PGA Tour Winner's profile averages 13 GIR's and 33.5 long strokes - and Congressional was a far cry from Tiger's best long game performance.

The difference goes beyond just hitting on or close to more par 5's in two. It is also Tiger's unique ability to avoid or mitigate mistakes. It is not that he hits no wayward shots in his long game - he does. But what separates him is his combination of power, creativity and shot-making. Outcomes that are errors for most of his peers just aren't for Tiger. More often than not, he is able to come up with the recovery shot that puts him back in position to make par or better.

Avoid the Bad Round
Rarely does a player cruise through an event hitting on all cylinders for four rounds like Kenny Perry did last week at the Travelers. Over and over again, Tiger has shown the ability to manage his "bad" rounds into a acceptable number. This week it was his 3rd round 70 that kept him in contention.

The "Shot"
This is the intangible that Tiger seems to own. It is the impossible chip that topples in the hole on the 13th green at the Masters, and all the long putts to win on the 18th green at Bay Hill. The list is long and growing. These game-changing shots happen for or to others once or twice in their careers. Greg Norman's string of bad luck on the receiving end of these shots comes to mind. But I can't remember Tiger ever being the victim of a miracle shot - please let me know if I missed one. On the contrary, Tiger does it to the field routinely.

In my opinion, this week's "Shot" came in the form of a 20 foot putt on the par-5, 16th hole. Hunter Mahan was in the house at 12 under where he had been since Tiger bogeyed the 11th hole, leaving him in a tie with Mahan. Tiger's best opportunity to regain the lead was the reachable 16th, but when he missed the green with his 2nd, he was confronted with a terrible, green-side lie in deep rough. His chip stopped 20 feet short and we know the rest - he rolled it in for birdie to snatch the lead.

That putt will not take a place at the top of Tiger's miracle list but - situation aside - let's examine the odds. Here are some niblicks from the Tour putting stats: 1) The average percent of putts made on the PGA Tour from 20 to 25 feet is 1 in 8, or 12%. 2) The 2009 YTD leader from this distance (Kevin Na) is 1 in 5, or 21.5%. 3) Of very little significance is that YTD Tiger is 2 of 30 (6.7%) - half the Tour average. Wouldn't we like to see Tiger's numbers filtered by WHEN IT REALLY COUNTS? Maybe I will take that statistical analysis on one of these days.

Kenny Perry Sets a New Putting Bar

Despite a 3-putt - albeit from 53 feet - Kenny Perry's putting performance was the best yet logged into our 2009 Tour Winner's database. Brian Gay set the previous mark by making 53% of the 70 1st-putt opportunities that he faced at the St. Jude Golf Classic in Memphis AND without a 3-putt.

Kenny had 71 1st putt chances and only made 46% and, as stated, recorded a single 3-putt in his final round. How then could his putting performance be considered better? As I have written many times, it is the DISTANCE that counts NOT the total number of putts. The average starting distance of Kenny's putts for the week was almost 7 feet further from the hole than Brian Gay's.

Kenny Perry 17 feet vs. Brian Gay 10 feet
This 7 foot difference is extremely important because even the best of the best golfers on the PGA Tour see their "make" percentage fall off rapidly outside 10 feet. Kenny Perry separated himself in the 11 - 30 foot range where he made 12 of 35 attempts (34%). The Tour average would be 9, or 26%. Coincidently, Kenny's three stroke difference exactly matches his margin of victory.

Two key niblicks of truth about Kenny's 3-putt: First, it is not at all unusual for the winner on the PGA Tour to have one. Our 2009 Winners 3-putt once in every 100 attempts (1%). Most of the 3-putts fall in the 50+ foot range like Kenny's. Second, more than one 3-putt, however, generally results in not winning a tournament. Our 2009 Top-10 profile, comprised of players usually only 2 or 3 shots away from winning, 3-putts 2% of their opportunities.

What should we mere mortal golfers take from all this? Nothing too profound, except the advice that on those days when your putter is "hot" and you are seeing and feeling the line, take advantage of it - they don't come along very often.

Nick Taylor is Low Amateur at Bethpage

Congratulations to Nick Taylor, the low amateur in last weekend's US Open golf tournament at Bethpage Black. Nick, one of only three amateurs to make the cut thanks to an impressive second round score of 65, finished +8 overall for the tournament, and tied for 36th place. Well done, Nick!

Nick is a member of the Canadian National golf team, and his stellar performance at Bethpage solidifies his #1 standing in the R&A World Amateur Golf rankings. Nick is a long-time student of Henry Brunton, a Master Professional and Top 100 Instructor. Henry is also one of the world's leading experts in the development of junior golfers. He preaches that measurement is an important part of development and improvement in golf, and has over 200 private students actively using the ShotByShot.com game analysis program. In addition, all of the Canadian National teams have used ShotByShot.com since its inception.

ShotByShot.com is proud to think that our game analysis program has played a part in the development of such fine young players as Nick Taylor, and his Canadian National teammate, Matt Hill, who recently won the NCAA golf chamionship.

For more about Henry Brunton's innovative approach to developing junior golfers, see http://www.henrybrunton.com/index.php.

To learn more about how the ShotByShot.com game analysis program can help you shape and achieve your own personal golf improvement goals, go to www.ShotByShot.com.

Glover's 16 Seconds to US Open Victory: The Importance of a Pre-Shot Routine in Golf

Lucas Glover's win at BethPage was an excellent example of the importance of a solid pre-shot routine, and the pay-off for golfers who have a consistent regimen. He had a few stumbles early in round 4, but hung on and played well on the final holes under extreme pressure. I paid close attention to his pre-shot routine, noted how well he stuck with it down the stretch, and believe that it was the difference at the end.

A well constructed pre-shot routine accomplishes two important purposes. The first is physical. It creates the platform for a successful shot - proper setup and alignment. The second is mental in that the routine occupies the conscious mind with a rehearsed set of positive thoughts that lead to a trigger. This is the part that helps ward off the negative effects of pressure. It creates a mental suit of armour against the doubts that can creep in and derail the shot-making process. Lucas took a consistent 16 seconds from the time he stepped forward from behind the ball until he struck each shot - full swings and putts.

While I do not pretend to know what he was thinking, here is what it looked like to me:

Shot selection - First, Lucas and his caddie would go through the decision making process and agree on the exact shot called for.

Visualization - Then from behind the ball, looking down the line at the target he would visualize the exact flight of the ball as planned.

Start - Next, he moved forward to address the ball - tick tock, tick tock.

Alignment - (to the target and proper ball position) 1) He'd place the club behind the ball aimed directly at the intermediate target. 2) Then he set up to the club and the ball.

Posture - Check posture and balance: spine straight, head high, arms relaxed and hanging.

Trigger - One quick waggle to loosen the hands and forearms & GO!

Coincidently, a close friend with whom I play a lot of golf recently asked if I would help him develop a routine in preparation his club championship. We spent two separate sessions at the range working on just this. Together, we developed a pattern of well-choreographed moves to insure that he is properly lined up to the target; standing tall to give him plenty of room to swing freely and release the club; and a waggle-trigger to start his backswing with his torso. While I did not subject him to a stop watch, I did tap my foot and count the seconds so that he could become comfortable with the tempo and timing of his new routine.

So far, he has qualified and won 3 matches and has the 36-hole finals this weekend. Two of the three matches were against better players, at least according to the USGA, and Tom credits the confidence in his routine for helping him prevail. I will be able to observe our work closely while I caddie for him in the finals. Good luck Tommy and stick to your routine!

Brian Gay: Putting for Dough!

Throughout the telecast of the St. Jude Classic on Sunday, Ian Baker Finch, once known as a great putter himself, commented on how the strength of Brian Gay's game was clearly putting. Ian made an excellent point to note that Brian had NO 3-Putts at that point in the telecast, and, true to his reputation, Brian did not let this comment jinx him into a stumble down the stretch.

Brian Gay finished five shots clear of his closest rivals and it was clearly his putting that was the difference. He was ranked #1 and #2 respectively in the old standby golf statistics - Putts per GIR (1.538) and Total Putts Per Round (25.0). I am no fan of these stats, but in this case Brian's performance was outstanding enough to drag them into relevance. Before we look more closely at his putting, his other stats support the point that the remainder of his game was solid but not spectacular.

As was said over and over again during the telecast (there was no drama to this ending so they had to fill the last 2 hours of air time with something), "Brian's game is not long but very accurate and consistent and he is a great putter." And the Tour stats bear this out.

• Driving Accuracy: T9th - (71%), quite good, averaging 10 of 14 fairways. More importantly, none of his missed fairways could be considered an ERROR (Penalty situation or poor enough result that it required a pure advancement shot to recover.)
• Driving Distance: 76th (266 yards - short by today's standards.)
• Greens in Reg.: T19 (12.25/round). I am more accustomed to seeing 13+ from the winner.
• Sand Saves: T24 (6/9, or 66.6%) with 1 ERROR (a shot left in the bunker). Winners are usually 70% or better with no errors.
• Scrambling: 65%, and again, lower than the usual Winner's profile.

Thus far, Brian's profile is not matching up to what I would expect from a Winner on the PGA Tour. This is where his putting prowess separates him and particularly from outside 10 feet where the averages for EVERYONE including the PGA Tour fall off rapidly. Note, in the above graphic which compares Brian's 1-Putt % to the average for the Tour (YTD 2009). Combine the fact that he had ZERO 3-Putts, his putting accuracy from 11 to 30 feet was remarkable. Had Brian putted no better than his peers in this range alone, he would have finished six shots higher and tied for 3rd.

Big Ben's the Boss

Golf Digest's US Open Challenge was held yesterday at Bethpage Black. This now-annual event grew out of a comment made by Tiger Woods several years ago after the US Open was held at Oakmont. Tiger, so impressed by the difficulty of the course, challenged that a 10-handicap golfer couldn't break 100 there. Three celebrities known to be accomplished golfers, and a contest winner from Arizona, put Bethpage to the test.

Here's how they did:

Roethlisberger +11
Jordan +16
Timberlake +18
"Larry" +31

Roethlisberger led the group shooting 81 on the par 70 Bethpage Black course yesterday, but was awed. "Every golf course we play from now on will seem easy," he said after the round. Jordan was second with an 86, and Timberlake followed with an 88. Larry - representing all earthly golfers - shot 101. Had it not been for a fateful 10 on the 16th hole, Larry would have broken 100 as well. "But that's the way it is. Life goes on," was his philosophical post-mortem. We feel you, Larry!

For more insights on the day of fun at Farmingdale, go to: http://www.golfdigest.com/magazine/usopencontest/2009/06/usopen_challenge_weinman_0612

For more perspective on how the course and the set-up at Bethpage Black differs from your weekend track, check out my prior post on this blog:

http://niblicksoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/06/how-tough-will-bethpage-black-be.html

Three-Putts in Golf: How Many are Too Many?

We've talked about how putting well is critical to scoring well in golf. Most golfers know that 3-putts are the enemy when you are trying to pull together a good score. It is important, however, to set realistic goals and expectations based on your skill level. Before you beat yourself up excessively, use the chart below to tell you how many three-putts a round are made by the average golfer in your handicap band.

HANDICAP RANGE	# 3-PUTTS/ROUND
0 to 5	0.8
6 to 10	1.1
11 to 15	1.4
16 to 25	2.1
26 to 35	3.4

If you are at or below that number on average, relax and move on when it happens. If you are above the target, consider taking a putting lesson from your pro. Get a simple basic stroke that you can repeat over and over, and ask for a few practice drills that you can use to work on your own.

How Tough Will Bethpage Black Be?

As we are about to watch the second US Open at Bethpage Black, I bet a lot of viewers will be wondering: “How much more difficult is this golf course that what my group plays on weekends?”

Golf Digest picked up on this last year and started the US Open Contest wherein four celebrity amateur golfers attempted to break 100. This contest grew out of a comment by Tiger Woods that the previous year’s course (Oakmont) was so hard that “… a 10 handicap couldn’t break 100 there.” Tiger was right – the 10 handicap shot 114. Tiger is clearly the best at his craft, but is he also clairvoyant? I’ll try to describe why this was a very safe prediction for Tiger to make.

Personal experience

In 2002, I played Bethpage Black on the last day before it closed for US Open grooming – boy, do I have some good friends. My group consisted of four low handicap golfers ranging from 2 to 5. We approached the round with great confidence, each anxious to see how well we would do. Five+ hours later, we emerged battered and exhausted and were all shocked at how brutal and relentlessly difficult we found the course. One of my friends said it perfectly: “I have never played so many par 5’s in my life!”

What makes an Open so hard?

Let’s do a statistical comparison of US Open venue, Bethpage Black (BPB) to the average courses played by ShotByShot.com’s male subscribers (AVG):

Total Yards / Par

· BPB: 7,426 / 70 = 106 yards per par stroke

· AVG: 6,400 / 71.5 = 89 yards per par stoke

Course rating: (The score that the scratch golfer should shoot)

· BPB: 78 (an educated guess as I have not seen it published)

· AVG: 71.5

Slope rating: (The relative difficulty for the “average” golfer)

· BPB: 155 (another educated guess but with confidence)

· AVG: 131

What do these numbers mean?

Chew on these niblicks: Bethpage Black is at least 6.5 shots harder for the scratch golfer and 11 shots harder for the bogey golfer. This means that the average male 18 handicap golfer that averages 92 with his group on weekends would average 103, and I believe this may be significantly understated.

In addition to the obvious difference in length, there are several other important conditions (that most of us will, thankfully, never see) to consider:

1. The typical fairway width of 30-40 yards is cut in half for a US Open setup (30 - 40 yards).
2. The rough height is generally twice the height that we amateurs face (from 2.5 – 3 inches and up in places vs. 1 to 1.5 inches at home).
3. Finally, the greens at an Open are usually very firm and fast making them unreceptive to shots from the rough, not to mention difficult to putt.

While you enjoy watching the professionals struggle for pars in a US Open, bear in mind how much more difficult the conditions are than what we typically play on weekends. Finally, if you ever get the chance to test your game on a US Open prepared course, get ready for the shock of your golfing life.

More on Short Putts

Practice makes perfect. Too bad it is so tedious. But it is really important if you want to improve your golf game. And there is no area of the game where your time and effort will yield more pay-off (in every way!) than with short putts. Confidence in this area will take pressure off of the rest of your golf game, and consistent success will drive your opponents crazy!

Here's a statistic you can use: for golfers at every level putting represents approximately 40% of their strokes per round. Putting offers a premium improvement opportunity because of the relatively low correlation between proficiency and physical strength/flexibility/coordination. With regular and focused work on the practice green, most golfers can shave 3-5 strokes off of their average golf score.

I’d suggest that you do what the pros do and divide putting into two separate categories: lag putts, and short strokes. A different mindset applies to each. Let’s tackle the short ones today.

Short Strokes
A short stroke is any putt that starts close enough to the hole that distance should not be a factor even if you miss. Practice a stroke especially for the job at hand. One of the most common causes of misses is deceleration due to last-second “result anxiety.” A good image is to picture a croquet wicket spanning the width of the hole. Make a stroke that will put the ball through the wicket. Remember this niblick of truth: 100% of putts that stop short of the hole will NOT end up in the hole.

Something that I struggle with is how to simulate the pressure of that "must make" short putt on the practice green. First, let’s define short. Even the average PGA tour golfer has to get inside 3 feet before he can expect to make 95% of his putts. The pros make just 50% of their 8 foot putts, and only 30% of their 12 foot putts, so make your improvement targets achievable.

Try placing five golf balls in a “must make” circle around a hole - preferably one with some slope. Don't let the session end until you have holed out all five balls. When you've mastered that, you can increase either the number of the balls or the distance from the hole (or both). You will be limited by your patience and the time you have available, but trust me, that final putt has a way of becoming quite real. But a key component of this drill is to build confidence, not frustration, so be sure you are starting with an achievable distance.

For more specific analysis of your putting performance, go to www.ShotByShot.com.

Not the Whole Truth: The Problem with Traditional Golf Statistics

My father was an engineer. He taught me that numbers are your friend, and that they don't lie. I took up golf seriously 25 years ago and became determined to improve. I started tracking the statistics that I read about in the golf magazines: Fairways Hit, Greens-in-Regulation, Sand Saves and Total Putts.

I quickly became frustrated as I encountered two major problems. The numbers are not always your friend, and while they don't lie, they don't always tell the whole truth.

First, the only numbers I had to compare myself against were those published for the PGA Tour. As a 14 handicap, these numbers were not friendly - the tour golfers were obviously playing a dramatically different game from mine. Second, even using these statistics to compare my own best and worst rounds was of limited value. I found that there was at times a disconnect between my statistical performance and my scoring performance.
And as I said, traditional golf statistics don’t lie - they just don't give the whole truth. This is because golf is a multifaceted game, played in three dimensions – up, down, right, left, long and short. But unfortunately, traditional statistics provide flat, YES or NO answers to one-dimensional questions. Here are some niblicks of truth to nibble on:
Fairways Hit:

This may be the best example of a flawed traditional golf stat. It asks for a true/false answer to what should be a multiple choice question. Think about it. In traditional stats, a YES answer (Fairway Hit) is always presumed to be a better outcome than a NO answer (Fairway Missed). But is this correct? Which would you rather have – a drive that ends up 175 yards out in the middle of the fairway, or a 275 yard rocket that ends up in the first cut of rough? And if you do miss the fairway, wouldn’t you prefer the 275 yard rocket over a ball hit Out of Bounds or Lost? The Fairways Hit stat treats those two outcomes as equals.
Greens-in-regulation (GIR’s):
This may be traditional golf stats at their best because a YES tells us something definite and positive about that hole. As we all know, hitting a green in regulation is a true accomplishment! There are two problems, however. First, most amateurs do not hit very many. The average male 18-handicap golfer will hit less than 4 of 18 greens per round. Second, the stat gives no "color" on all those other holes - what happened? How bad was it?

Sand Saves:

A Sand Save = a 1-putt following a greenside sand shot. The problem with this statistic is that it encompasses two facets of the golf game – sand play and putting. Since the two skills are blended into one stat, it can mask issues (or excellence) in one skill vs. the other.

Unfortunately, traditional golf statistics also ignore the rest of the short game. And this is usually a far greater number of shots per round since everyone isn't always approaching the green from a sand trap - although sometimes it might not feel that way.

# Putts per Round:
This stat is relatively easy to keep but has a major flaw in that it ignores the distances of the putting opportunities. A 2-putt from 3 feet counts exactly the same as a 2-putt from 75 feet. Would you balance your checkbook just based upon the number of checks you wrote? Let’s hope not!

ShotByShot.com represents my solution to the issues with traditional golf statistics. Visit www.ShotByShot.com for friendly numbers that tell the whole truth and will help you improve your golf game.

Congratulations to Matt Hill!

Matt Hill, a member of Team Canada and a sophomore at NC State, just captured the NCAA golf championship. Matt is a long time student of our longest and largest ShotByShot.com supporter, Henry Brunton. Henry, a Master Professional and Top-100 golf instructor, has been the Canadian National golf team coach for over 10 years. Henry is also one of the world's leading experts in the development of junior golfers.

Henry Brunton preaches that measurement is an important part of development and improvement in golf, and has over 200 private students actively using the ShotByShot.com game analysis program. In addition, all of the Canadian National teams have used ShotByShot.com since its inception.

I first met Matt Hill when he was an aspiring young high school player under Henry Brunton's tutelage. I won't claim that ShotByShot.com deserves credit for his recent success, but I am exceedingly proud that it has played a part in his development as a golfer. To read more about Matt's impressive victory, go to http://www.rcga.org/news_details.aspx?ID=1915

For more about Henry Brunton's innovative approach to developing junior golfers, see http://www.henrybrunton.com/index.php

To learn more about how ShotByShot.com analysis can help you achieve your personal golf goals, check out www.ShotByShot.com

What if Rory Sabbatini Putted Like the Average Golfer?

The good news: with a more mortal putting performance – adding an extra eight strokes per round on the greens – Rory Sabbatini would have still made the cut last week at the Byron. The bad news: he would have finished dead last by six shots.

The point of this silliness is to demonstrate exactly how superior Rory’s putting performance was, even at his level of the game, and to put in perspective “how good these guys really are.” Let’s analyze Rory’s performance vs. the average weekend golfer:

What do the Traditional Stats Tell Us?

Total Putts per Round: Rory averaged 25.8 - think about how good that is. Our Average golfer averages 33.7. That is a difference of 7.8 per round or 31.2 strokes over a four-day tournament.

Putts per Green Hit in Regulation: Rory was an incredible 1.53. You will not see that very often. Our Average golfer would be 2.2 - again about 32 strokes over four days.

# 3 Putts: Rory had none. This is not unusual for a winner on the PGA Tour. Mr. Average Golfer, however, would have had two per round.

# 1 Putts: Rory had 37 1-putt greens. Think about it, under the pressure of a 72 hole PGA Tour event that not only means mega dollars but exemptions and invites to the Masters, Rory chipped/sanded in on two holes and then 1-putted on 37 more. That is 54% of the holes played! Mr. Average Golferwould not have holed out any of those greenside shots and would only have 1-putted four times each round, or 16 1-putts vs. Rory's 37.

Rory had 27 greenside, short game opportunities. His average putting distance was a tidy 5.8 feet and he “saved” 66% (18 of 27). Here’s a niblick: even at this close range, our average golfer can only expect to save about 40%, as his 50% “make” distance is just outside 4 feet.

Finally, putting is a skill at which there is always room for improvement – no matter at what level we play golf. Further, it does not require size or strength, merely solid technique and practice. It is at least 40% of the game for everyone. Do you spend 40% of your golf instruction and practice time with your flat stick?

For an accurate evaluation of your putting performance, as well as effective practice drills, log on to http://www.shotbyshot.com/. If your basic putting technique needs work, see your local teaching pro.

Rory's Putter Roared the Loudest

Finally, an example of “Tour Stats” bearing a direct relationship to the outcome of a golf tournament! Rory Sabbatini won the HP Byron Nelson Championship last weekend, and his phenomenal putting was ranked #1 in both Putts per GIR and Putts per round. Readers of this blog know how strongly I disagree with these two traditional gems of “statistical golf analysis,” so why now are they correct? Have you heard the one about 10,000 monkeys banging on typewriters eventually producing something coherent? No, it’s not quite that extreme. (And no offense meant to the folks at the PGA Tour - I know many of them and they are highly competent but constrained by the Tour’s traditional stat viewpoint.) But let’s take a closer look at Rory’s putting performance.

The ShotByShot.com View
When I ran the distance of each first putting opportunity and the number of putts needed to hole out on each green through ShotByShot.com’s proprietary models, Rory’s overall performance ranked better than what I typically see from the winners on the Tour. Here's a niblick of truth: of Rory's record 19 strokes under par, over 50% - approximately 10 strokes - are attributable to his fabulous putting.

The Common Sense View
With no 3-putts for the week, Rory managed to 1-putt better than half of the 72 greens (37 to be exact). He also chipped in from off the green twice. His longest one-putt was from 41 feet in the 3rd round, a distance from which the average Tour player will average just over 2 putts. The average distance of Rory’s 37 one-putts was eight feet – coincidently the distance from which the average Tour player will only make 50% of his putts. Finally, it is ironic that over a four day golf tournament, Rory’s only missed putt from 5 feet or closer came on the final hole of the tournament. Fortunately, he only needed a 3-putt to secure his victory.


There's a lot that mere mortals can learn about their putting performance - and the other components of their golf game as well - from ShotByShot.com's analysis. Go to www.ShotByShot.com for more information.

A Quick Test of Golf Tee Shot Accuracy

As I have stated previously, ‘Fairways Hit’ is one of my least favorite of the traditional golf statistics. This is because it oversimplifies the issue by asking for a true or false answer to what should be a multiple choice question. This stat would be meaningful if it were always true that hitting the fairway was better than not – but it isn’t! And the real problem is that much more information is needed about a tee shot that misses the fairway before it can be determined a mistake. Think about it: this stat does not differentiate between a tee shot that ends up 250 yards out in the first cut of rough and a drive that goes OB. Is that a valid measurement of golf performance?

A better way
The data that we have gathered over 18 years of analyzing the golf game at ShotByShot gives us a better way to look at this issue. A study of our extensive database, where golfers have always recorded the position of every shot along with a rating of its relative difficulty, revealed five basic types of results that follow a missed fairway from the tee:

LIGHT ROUGH
HEAVY ROUGH
NO SHOT
PENALTY (1 Stroke: hazard or unplayable)
XX PENALTY (Stroke + Distance – OB or Lost)

We applied the TEST described below to each of the handicap levels in our database to determine the approximate cost, in stokes, of the missed fairways. You can use this test to see the approximate strokes that you are losing per round. You can also compare your results to your handicap group to determine whether this is a strength or weakness of your golf game.

Try this test

Step #1
In your next few rounds, track your missed fairways. On a typical golf course you will have 14 driving opportunities on the par 4 and par 5 holes. On a blank line on your scorecard, rate each missed fairway on the scale of 0 – 4: LIGHT ROUGH = 0; HEAVY ROUGH = 1; NO SHOT = 2; PENALTY = 3; XX PENALTY = 4.

Step #2
At the end of each round, add up the points and divide the total by 2. This number will approximate the number of strokes that your missed fairways cost you in that round. Average a few rounds see how your average strokes lost per round relates to your handicap group.

For more specifics on the strengths and weaknesses of your golf game relative to yor handicap, go to www.ShotByShot.com

An 'Approach' to Practice

Here are a few 'niblicks' on Approach Shots:

• An Approach Shot = an attempt to hit a green from 51 yards or more.
• Our statistical database tells us that the average golfer has 20 approach shot opportunities per round. But wait – how can this be right? Wouldn’t there have to be more than 18 holes of golf to make this true? Sadly, NO! The average golfer experiences the frustration at least twice a round of a first approach attempt that leaves them with yet another attempt, still not within 50 yards of the hole.
• The average golfer’s (first) approach distance is about 140 yards from the flag.
• The average golfer's approach shot success rate – the percent of greens they hit – is just 33%.

Better approach shot performance is clearly a great improvement opportunity for the average golfer. Pushing the average number of approach shots per round below 20 into the teens is not a lofty goal – but any progress in this area will translate into lower scores and an improved handicap.

What should you work on?
Spend your time on shorter approach shots. 60% of your total approach opportunities will fall in the 91 – 180 yard range. But our analysis tells us that your approach success rate – shots that hit the green – will fall off markedly outside 150 yards. I recommend spending your limited practice time (and/or lesson time if you are working with a pro) gaining confidence in controlling your distance and accuracy in relatively close range – 91 to 130 yards. As your confidence and success grows, you can expand your distances.

What about longer approach shots? As you work toward shorter approach shot mastery, I have two recommendations for longer approach shots:

1. Adjust your expectations

a. Visualize a large target. This will reduce the pressure you feel and reduce tension.
b. Aim away from trouble. Years ago a top touring professional confessed to me that his “…only goal when faced with a long-iron approach shot was not to make a mistake.”

2. Go hybrid! If you've not already replaced your long irons with hybrids, do it now. These newer generation weapons are designed to make the longer, more difficult approach and advancement shots much easier.

For more specific information about the strengths and weaknesses of your golf game, go to www.ShotByShot.com.

What really won the Texas Valero Open for Zach Johnson?

Here are Zach Johnson's “key statistics” according to the PGA Golf Tour:

Driving Accuracy: 66.1% = T 29th
Driving Distance: 295.8 = 47th
(It could not have been his driving?!)

Greens in Regulation: 76.4% = T 10th
(So much for his Long Game?)

(Maybe it was putting?)
Putts per GIR: 1.764 = 37th
Putts per round: 28.3 = T 27th
(Not if one believes these numbers!)

With these mediocre performance statistics, how on earth did Zach win this golf tournament?

A different perspective of the four rounds as seen through SHOT BY SHOT patented golf game analysis reveals this niblick of truth: the consistency and efficiency of Zach’s Long Game clearly won the day.

Driving
While Zach missed an average of 4.6 fairways each round, his misses were in fairly good spots from which he still had reasonable, if not good, opportunities to accomplish his next goal. Zach made only one true “mistake” – on the 10th hole in the final round he drove the ball into a place from which he could only advance the ball back into play.

Greens in Regulation
Zach averaged 13.75 GIR’s per round which is very good and slightly above our profile of other Winners on the PGA Tour.

Long Game Efficiency Index (LGEI, patent pending)
When we add up Zach’s long strokes (50 yards and out) and divide them by his GIR’s, we get an LGEI of 2.38. This is better than our “Winners” profile and equal to Tiger’s numbers recorded during his impressive 2006-07 win streak – to date the best I have seen.

But wait, there is more:
The greens were firm and fast and they were playing in the Texas wind – it was difficult to keep the ball on the putting surfaces. Zach had nine instances where his golf ball finished just off the green and almost all were putt-able, and he holed two of these. In six out of nine cases Zach’s ball, while off the green, was within 30 feet of the cup and definitely inside 2-putt range. If we count these six as GIR’s for the purposes of our LGEI, his index drops to 2.14. This is by far the best that I have seen and very close to the perfect “score” of 2.00.

Bottom line, Zach won the Valero Open because he managed his long game strokes nearly perfectly. He made only one error and consistently hit the greens or very near the hole.

Trouble Shots in Golf: Take your Medicine!

OK, so we all understand the importance of avoiding mistakes on the golf course. We also understand that, as Dr. Bob Rotella says, "golf is not a game of perfect," and mistakes do and will occur. The SHOTBYSHOT.com statistics tell us that the "Average" golfer (15 to 19 handicap) will have four trouble shots per round. If they were all played conservatively - in other words, getting the ball safely back in play - think of the strokes that could be saved. When a golf mistake happens in such a way that you have an opportunity to recover - in other words, manufacture a shot that might save the hole - here are some niblicks of advice...

Manufactured shots involve the use of a golf club in a way that is extraordinary, or outside its conventional purpose. An example would be a punch out from under a tree, or a high intentional slice to get around and over an obstacle. Since you have already made one mistake to get there, your key objective should be to avoid compounding your error. Job #1 is to get the golf ball safely back in play, so do what you can to accomplish that goal.

This may sound silly, but assessing your options from a golf ball's eye view is always a good idea. When practical, seeing the proposed flight of the ball from as close as possible to ground level will give you a different and better perspective on the opening you think you see from a standing position. Here's the chance you've been looking for to impress your friends with your Camillo move. But if you emerge from the round with dirt on your knees and branches in your hair, take this as a clue to where your golf game needs improvement.

If you are "lucky" enough to be considering an array of trouble shot options, a good rule of thumb is to pick the one that involves a close to a normal golf swing as possible. Many of the more creative shots involve something other than a conventional address position and/or a natural swing path. Only attempt such a manufactured swing when there are no reasonable options. If logistics or ego make it impossible to swing normally, try to build a positive image and feel for the shot by taking at least two realistic rehearsal swings. Then use this image as your swing thought during the execution of your trouble shot. Good luck!

Fairways Hit? Fuhgeddaboudit!

Ability to hit fairways has long been the traditional measure of golf driving accuracy. It is, after all, our goal when we stand on the tee of a par 4 or par 5 hole. But, like most traditional golf statistics, it is one-dimensional. That’s because it asks for a simple Yes/No answer to a question that forces us to focus mainly on the Yes. Why? Because conventional wisdom has us believing that ‘Yes’ is the most positive outcome. But think about it – is that really the case?

Over the past 18 years we have analyzed golf performance at every level – including PGA Tour players – and have concluded that hitting or missing fairways is a statistic of limited relevance. Of far greater importance is the character and severity of the miss. Did the ball land just in the light rough, in a bunker, behind a tree (with or without a shot?), disappear in a pond, or worst of all – go lost or OB?

The higher the level of the player’s golf game, the less relevant is the number of fairways hit to improvement or performance. A recent study of performance on the PGA Tour conducted by two professors at Northeastern University in Boston cited the declining importance of driving accuracy due primarily to increasing driving distances. To support this, during his 2007 seven-event winning streak, Tiger Woods hit only 61% of the fairways. In the final event of that streak at Torrey Pines, Tiger hit only 46% of the fairways en route to victory. Of far greater importance was the fact that Tiger’s tee shots resulted in an ERROR in only 2% of his total attempts. (ERROR = a result that was a penalty, or in a position from which he did not have a normal advancement opportunity for his next shot.)

At the amateur level, the frequency and severity of errors tends to be directly correlated to the handicap. In a study of single-digit handicap golfers that I conducted several years ago, I determined that over 80% of double bogeys began with an error from the tee. A double bogey is the dreaded, scoring anathema for this low handicap group. I have found that these errors have much more to do with long game effectiveness. And developing a strategy to avoid errors is much more important to the improvement process than focusing on the number of fairways hit.

Test your game:
•Step #1: Play your normal game and track your tee shot errors (Remember, ERROR = a penalty, or in a position from which there is not a normal advancement opportunity for your next shot) in your next few rounds to see where you stack up on the chart below. In a typical round, you will have 14 driving opportunities. One error would be 7% (1/14).

PGA Tour 5% errors
0-5 hcp 10%
6-10 hcp 19%
11-15 hcp 30%
16-25 hcp 42%
26-35 hcp 57%

Step #2: Next, play a few rounds where you make conscious choices to avoid these errors and see what effect it has on your score. This means selecting both the club and target that provides the greatest guarantee of success. It might mean using 3-wood or even 5-iron off the tee and playing away from potential trouble. It will take discipline. But if mistakes off the tee are a problem, you will be surprised at the improvements you will see.

(For more detailed information on your own personal Driving Performance, check out the game analysis options available at http://www.shotbyshot.com/.)