Thursday, June 4, 2009

Not the Whole Truth: The Problem with Traditional Golf Statistics

My father was an engineer. He taught me that numbers are your friend, and that they don't lie. I took up golf seriously 25 years ago and became determined to improve. I started tracking the statistics that I read about in the golf magazines: Fairways Hit, Greens-in-Regulation, Sand Saves and Total Putts.
I quickly became frustrated as I encountered two major problems. The numbers are not always your friend, and while they don't lie, they don't always tell the whole truth.
First, the only numbers I had to compare myself against were those published for the PGA Tour. As a 14 handicap, these numbers were not friendly - the tour golfers were obviously playing a dramatically different game from mine. Second, even using these statistics to compare my own best and worst rounds was of limited value. I found that there was at times a disconnect between my statistical performance and my scoring performance.
And as I said, traditional golf statistics don’t lie - they just don't give the whole truth. This is because golf is a multifaceted game, played in three dimensions – up, down, right, left, long and short. But unfortunately, traditional statistics provide flat, YES or NO answers to one-dimensional questions. Here are some niblicks of truth to nibble on:
Fairways Hit:
This may be the best example of a flawed traditional golf stat. It asks for a true/false answer to what should be a multiple choice question. Think about it. In traditional stats, a YES answer (Fairway Hit) is always presumed to be a better outcome than a NO answer (Fairway Missed). But is this correct? Which would you rather have – a drive that ends up 175 yards out in the middle of the fairway, or a 275 yard rocket that ends up in the first cut of rough? And if you do miss the fairway, wouldn’t you prefer the 275 yard rocket over a ball hit Out of Bounds or Lost? The Fairways Hit stat treats those two outcomes as equals.
Greens-in-regulation (GIR’s):
This may be traditional golf stats at their best because a YES tells us something definite and positive about that hole. As we all know, hitting a green in regulation is a true accomplishment! There are two problems, however. First, most amateurs do not hit very many. The average male 18-handicap golfer will hit less than 4 of 18 greens per round. Second, the stat gives no "color" on all those other holes - what happened? How bad was it?
Sand Saves:
A Sand Save = a 1-putt following a greenside sand shot. The problem with this statistic is that it encompasses two facets of the golf game – sand play and putting. Since the two skills are blended into one stat, it can mask issues (or excellence) in one skill vs. the other.
Unfortunately, traditional golf statistics also ignore the rest of the short game. And this is usually a far greater number of shots per round since everyone isn't always approaching the green from a sand trap - although sometimes it might not feel that way.
# Putts per Round:
This stat is relatively easy to keep but has a major flaw in that it ignores the distances of the putting opportunities. A 2-putt from 3 feet counts exactly the same as a 2-putt from 75 feet. Would you balance your checkbook just based upon the number of checks you wrote? Let’s hope not!
ShotByShot.com represents my solution to the issues with traditional golf statistics. Visit www.ShotByShot.com for friendly numbers that tell the whole truth and will help you improve your golf game.

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