Unfortunately 3 Handicaps Don't Win Major Golf Tournaments

It almost seems cruel to dwell on what undoubtedly cost Tom Watson the British Open instead of all the positives about his amazing golf accomplishment. But as always, the numbers tell an interesting story - loudly and clearly!

First, I really am (and long have been) a fan of Tom Watson. We are contemporaries and I watched and cheered for most of his victories. As a 14 handicap golfer, I bought and devoured his book "Getting Up and Down with Tom Watson" and it changed my game, my attitude and my handicap, dramatically. On 9/10/2002, I played in a golf event that featured Tom, and I had the thrill of a lengthy chat with him during an extended rain delay. In my opinion, he long ago set a new standard for performance and behavior on and off the golf course. Further, the way he handled everything about this Open week should be carefully documented and studied by everyone in and out of golf, but especially those that aspire to compete in the public's eye.

As the Open is the purview of the R & A, there is no ShotLink data, and even the traditional Fairways, Greens and puttting statistics are unavailable. No worries - due to his outstanding play, the telecasts treated us to every shot Tom hit in the final round, so I recorded it and captured his Shot By Shot data for analysis.

Tom's long game was easily that of a champion. In the final round, he made no real mistakes (until the playoff) and hit 12 Greens-in-Regulation (I counted 2 routine putts from the fringe as GIR's). Handicap: +5

Chip/Pitch shots - Certainly not the Tom Watson of old, his six opportunities averaged just over 10 feet from the hole with only half hit to within 5 feet of the cup. Handicap: 0

Sand shots - Only 1 shot hit to 9 feet. Handicap: +1

Putting - Tom had no 3-putts in the final round and made a relatively long one from 28 feet on the par 3 11th hole. He also did not miss any short putts but his undoing was in the "makeable" ranges from 4 to 20 feet where he made only 1 of his 10 opportunities. Wisha-coulda-shoulda, but if he had just made one more of these putts he would have completed the miracle. Here's a sad niblick of truth: If Tom's performance had only been equal to the average putting performance of the PGA Tour, he would have made 4 out of those 10 putts, and finished the British Open with a two-stroke margin of victory. Handicap: 3

How Tough Will Bethpage Black Be?

As we are about to watch the second US Open at Bethpage Black, I bet a lot of viewers will be wondering: “How much more difficult is this golf course that what my group plays on weekends?”

Golf Digest picked up on this last year and started the US Open Contest wherein four celebrity amateur golfers attempted to break 100. This contest grew out of a comment by Tiger Woods that the previous year’s course (Oakmont) was so hard that “… a 10 handicap couldn’t break 100 there.” Tiger was right – the 10 handicap shot 114. Tiger is clearly the best at his craft, but is he also clairvoyant? I’ll try to describe why this was a very safe prediction for Tiger to make.

Personal experience

In 2002, I played Bethpage Black on the last day before it closed for US Open grooming – boy, do I have some good friends. My group consisted of four low handicap golfers ranging from 2 to 5. We approached the round with great confidence, each anxious to see how well we would do. Five+ hours later, we emerged battered and exhausted and were all shocked at how brutal and relentlessly difficult we found the course. One of my friends said it perfectly: “I have never played so many par 5’s in my life!”

What makes an Open so hard?

Let’s do a statistical comparison of US Open venue, Bethpage Black (BPB) to the average courses played by ShotByShot.com’s male subscribers (AVG):

Total Yards / Par

· BPB: 7,426 / 70 = 106 yards per par stroke

· AVG: 6,400 / 71.5 = 89 yards per par stoke

Course rating: (The score that the scratch golfer should shoot)

· BPB: 78 (an educated guess as I have not seen it published)

· AVG: 71.5

Slope rating: (The relative difficulty for the “average” golfer)

· BPB: 155 (another educated guess but with confidence)

· AVG: 131

What do these numbers mean?

Chew on these niblicks: Bethpage Black is at least 6.5 shots harder for the scratch golfer and 11 shots harder for the bogey golfer. This means that the average male 18 handicap golfer that averages 92 with his group on weekends would average 103, and I believe this may be significantly understated.

In addition to the obvious difference in length, there are several other important conditions (that most of us will, thankfully, never see) to consider:

1. The typical fairway width of 30-40 yards is cut in half for a US Open setup (30 - 40 yards).
2. The rough height is generally twice the height that we amateurs face (from 2.5 – 3 inches and up in places vs. 1 to 1.5 inches at home).
3. Finally, the greens at an Open are usually very firm and fast making them unreceptive to shots from the rough, not to mention difficult to putt.

While you enjoy watching the professionals struggle for pars in a US Open, bear in mind how much more difficult the conditions are than what we typically play on weekends. Finally, if you ever get the chance to test your game on a US Open prepared course, get ready for the shock of your golfing life.

More on Short Putts

Practice makes perfect. Too bad it is so tedious. But it is really important if you want to improve your golf game. And there is no area of the game where your time and effort will yield more pay-off (in every way!) than with short putts. Confidence in this area will take pressure off of the rest of your golf game, and consistent success will drive your opponents crazy!

Here's a statistic you can use: for golfers at every level putting represents approximately 40% of their strokes per round. Putting offers a premium improvement opportunity because of the relatively low correlation between proficiency and physical strength/flexibility/coordination. With regular and focused work on the practice green, most golfers can shave 3-5 strokes off of their average golf score.

I’d suggest that you do what the pros do and divide putting into two separate categories: lag putts, and short strokes. A different mindset applies to each. Let’s tackle the short ones today.

Short Strokes
A short stroke is any putt that starts close enough to the hole that distance should not be a factor even if you miss. Practice a stroke especially for the job at hand. One of the most common causes of misses is deceleration due to last-second “result anxiety.” A good image is to picture a croquet wicket spanning the width of the hole. Make a stroke that will put the ball through the wicket. Remember this niblick of truth: 100% of putts that stop short of the hole will NOT end up in the hole.

Something that I struggle with is how to simulate the pressure of that "must make" short putt on the practice green. First, let’s define short. Even the average PGA tour golfer has to get inside 3 feet before he can expect to make 95% of his putts. The pros make just 50% of their 8 foot putts, and only 30% of their 12 foot putts, so make your improvement targets achievable.

Try placing five golf balls in a “must make” circle around a hole - preferably one with some slope. Don't let the session end until you have holed out all five balls. When you've mastered that, you can increase either the number of the balls or the distance from the hole (or both). You will be limited by your patience and the time you have available, but trust me, that final putt has a way of becoming quite real. But a key component of this drill is to build confidence, not frustration, so be sure you are starting with an achievable distance.

For more specific analysis of your putting performance, go to www.ShotByShot.com.

What if Rory Sabbatini Putted Like the Average Golfer?

The good news: with a more mortal putting performance – adding an extra eight strokes per round on the greens – Rory Sabbatini would have still made the cut last week at the Byron. The bad news: he would have finished dead last by six shots.

The point of this silliness is to demonstrate exactly how superior Rory’s putting performance was, even at his level of the game, and to put in perspective “how good these guys really are.” Let’s analyze Rory’s performance vs. the average weekend golfer:

What do the Traditional Stats Tell Us?

Total Putts per Round: Rory averaged 25.8 - think about how good that is. Our Average golfer averages 33.7. That is a difference of 7.8 per round or 31.2 strokes over a four-day tournament.

Putts per Green Hit in Regulation: Rory was an incredible 1.53. You will not see that very often. Our Average golfer would be 2.2 - again about 32 strokes over four days.

# 3 Putts: Rory had none. This is not unusual for a winner on the PGA Tour. Mr. Average Golfer, however, would have had two per round.

# 1 Putts: Rory had 37 1-putt greens. Think about it, under the pressure of a 72 hole PGA Tour event that not only means mega dollars but exemptions and invites to the Masters, Rory chipped/sanded in on two holes and then 1-putted on 37 more. That is 54% of the holes played! Mr. Average Golferwould not have holed out any of those greenside shots and would only have 1-putted four times each round, or 16 1-putts vs. Rory's 37.

Rory had 27 greenside, short game opportunities. His average putting distance was a tidy 5.8 feet and he “saved” 66% (18 of 27). Here’s a niblick: even at this close range, our average golfer can only expect to save about 40%, as his 50% “make” distance is just outside 4 feet.

Finally, putting is a skill at which there is always room for improvement – no matter at what level we play golf. Further, it does not require size or strength, merely solid technique and practice. It is at least 40% of the game for everyone. Do you spend 40% of your golf instruction and practice time with your flat stick?

For an accurate evaluation of your putting performance, as well as effective practice drills, log on to http://www.shotbyshot.com/. If your basic putting technique needs work, see your local teaching pro.

Rory's Putter Roared the Loudest

Finally, an example of “Tour Stats” bearing a direct relationship to the outcome of a golf tournament! Rory Sabbatini won the HP Byron Nelson Championship last weekend, and his phenomenal putting was ranked #1 in both Putts per GIR and Putts per round. Readers of this blog know how strongly I disagree with these two traditional gems of “statistical golf analysis,” so why now are they correct? Have you heard the one about 10,000 monkeys banging on typewriters eventually producing something coherent? No, it’s not quite that extreme. (And no offense meant to the folks at the PGA Tour - I know many of them and they are highly competent but constrained by the Tour’s traditional stat viewpoint.) But let’s take a closer look at Rory’s putting performance.

The ShotByShot.com View
When I ran the distance of each first putting opportunity and the number of putts needed to hole out on each green through ShotByShot.com’s proprietary models, Rory’s overall performance ranked better than what I typically see from the winners on the Tour. Here's a niblick of truth: of Rory's record 19 strokes under par, over 50% - approximately 10 strokes - are attributable to his fabulous putting.

The Common Sense View
With no 3-putts for the week, Rory managed to 1-putt better than half of the 72 greens (37 to be exact). He also chipped in from off the green twice. His longest one-putt was from 41 feet in the 3rd round, a distance from which the average Tour player will average just over 2 putts. The average distance of Rory’s 37 one-putts was eight feet – coincidently the distance from which the average Tour player will only make 50% of his putts. Finally, it is ironic that over a four day golf tournament, Rory’s only missed putt from 5 feet or closer came on the final hole of the tournament. Fortunately, he only needed a 3-putt to secure his victory.


There's a lot that mere mortals can learn about their putting performance - and the other components of their golf game as well - from ShotByShot.com's analysis. Go to www.ShotByShot.com for more information.

Driving Accuracy Redux

Apologies for some of the handicap coordinates missing from the chart in my last post on Driving Accuracy. Apparently the chart was too wide for my template. I published a similar article in Golf Digest, which can be found at http://www.golfdigest.com/instruction/longgame/accuracy/sanders_gd0809. It contains a simplified chart that may be helpful. If your handicap is missing and you'd like to know the average strokes lost specifically for you, please make a comment below and I will respond.

A Quick Test of Golf Tee Shot Accuracy

As I have stated previously, ‘Fairways Hit’ is one of my least favorite of the traditional golf statistics. This is because it oversimplifies the issue by asking for a true or false answer to what should be a multiple choice question. This stat would be meaningful if it were always true that hitting the fairway was better than not – but it isn’t! And the real problem is that much more information is needed about a tee shot that misses the fairway before it can be determined a mistake. Think about it: this stat does not differentiate between a tee shot that ends up 250 yards out in the first cut of rough and a drive that goes OB. Is that a valid measurement of golf performance?

A better way
The data that we have gathered over 18 years of analyzing the golf game at ShotByShot gives us a better way to look at this issue. A study of our extensive database, where golfers have always recorded the position of every shot along with a rating of its relative difficulty, revealed five basic types of results that follow a missed fairway from the tee:

LIGHT ROUGH
HEAVY ROUGH
NO SHOT
PENALTY (1 Stroke: hazard or unplayable)
XX PENALTY (Stroke + Distance – OB or Lost)

We applied the TEST described below to each of the handicap levels in our database to determine the approximate cost, in stokes, of the missed fairways. You can use this test to see the approximate strokes that you are losing per round. You can also compare your results to your handicap group to determine whether this is a strength or weakness of your golf game.

Try this test

Step #1
In your next few rounds, track your missed fairways. On a typical golf course you will have 14 driving opportunities on the par 4 and par 5 holes. On a blank line on your scorecard, rate each missed fairway on the scale of 0 – 4: LIGHT ROUGH = 0; HEAVY ROUGH = 1; NO SHOT = 2; PENALTY = 3; XX PENALTY = 4.

Step #2
At the end of each round, add up the points and divide the total by 2. This number will approximate the number of strokes that your missed fairways cost you in that round. Average a few rounds see how your average strokes lost per round relates to your handicap group.

For more specifics on the strengths and weaknesses of your golf game relative to yor handicap, go to www.ShotByShot.com

What really won the Texas Valero Open for Zach Johnson?

Here are Zach Johnson's “key statistics” according to the PGA Golf Tour:

Driving Accuracy: 66.1% = T 29th
Driving Distance: 295.8 = 47th
(It could not have been his driving?!)

Greens in Regulation: 76.4% = T 10th
(So much for his Long Game?)

(Maybe it was putting?)
Putts per GIR: 1.764 = 37th
Putts per round: 28.3 = T 27th
(Not if one believes these numbers!)

With these mediocre performance statistics, how on earth did Zach win this golf tournament?

A different perspective of the four rounds as seen through SHOT BY SHOT patented golf game analysis reveals this niblick of truth: the consistency and efficiency of Zach’s Long Game clearly won the day.

Driving
While Zach missed an average of 4.6 fairways each round, his misses were in fairly good spots from which he still had reasonable, if not good, opportunities to accomplish his next goal. Zach made only one true “mistake” – on the 10th hole in the final round he drove the ball into a place from which he could only advance the ball back into play.

Greens in Regulation
Zach averaged 13.75 GIR’s per round which is very good and slightly above our profile of other Winners on the PGA Tour.

Long Game Efficiency Index (LGEI, patent pending)
When we add up Zach’s long strokes (50 yards and out) and divide them by his GIR’s, we get an LGEI of 2.38. This is better than our “Winners” profile and equal to Tiger’s numbers recorded during his impressive 2006-07 win streak – to date the best I have seen.

But wait, there is more:
The greens were firm and fast and they were playing in the Texas wind – it was difficult to keep the ball on the putting surfaces. Zach had nine instances where his golf ball finished just off the green and almost all were putt-able, and he holed two of these. In six out of nine cases Zach’s ball, while off the green, was within 30 feet of the cup and definitely inside 2-putt range. If we count these six as GIR’s for the purposes of our LGEI, his index drops to 2.14. This is by far the best that I have seen and very close to the perfect “score” of 2.00.

Bottom line, Zach won the Valero Open because he managed his long game strokes nearly perfectly. He made only one error and consistently hit the greens or very near the hole.