How good is Jordan Spieth's Distance Control?

Read my article in this month's Masters issue of Golf Digest

How difficult were the poa greens at Riviera

I recently did a detailed Putting - Distance Control study comparing Jordan Spieth's 2015 year to the most recent five, year-end, Strokes Gained leaders and the 2015 Tour average (please look for my article in the next issue of Golf Digest).  Something jumped out in that there were 88 4-Putts and five 5-Putts on Tour in 2015.  We obviously don't see these on TV.  I typically have one 4-Putt every season so like to get it out of the way early in the year.  Have never recorded 5 putts yet - WHEW!  In 27 years of Shot By Shot data, we see very few 4-Putts.  Why?  The vast majority of our rounds are match play format and players tend to very appropriately pick up that 3rd putt.

Not only did the fairly large number of 4+ putts stand out but two courses owned more of them than any of the others:

• CC of Jackson had the most with EIGHT 4-Putts in 2015.  
• Riviera was 2nd with SEVEN 4-Putts and, even more surprising, was that FIVE of the seven fell on the 1st hole - a very reachable Par 5.  

There was quite a bit of discussion during the Norther Trust telecast about the difficulty of the poa greens so I decided to see HOW difficult and WHY; as well as, see if the 4-Putts were repeated. 

The greater difficulty is not a surprise and was specifically pointed out by Nick Faldo - specifically the ability, or lack thereof, to make the 4-5 ft. putts.  Good get Sir Nick!  To support your point, the biggest difference between the 2015 Tour average and Riviera performance was the 4-5 ft. range (see graphic above).  This key distance led to the highest rate of 3-Putts that I have seen in a PGA Tour event.  Riviera = .72/round vs. 2015 Tour avg. = .51/round. 

Was it the Lag difficulty?

No!  The average start distances and leaves/results were close enough to be a wash but the average leave distances for 3-Putts was telling.  In 2015 the Tour's average leave  on 3+ Putts was 6.1 ft. (the distance for their 2nd putt).  At Riviera the average 3+ Putt leave distance was 5.7 ft.  In short, the Riviera field 3-Putted with far greater frequency by missing shorter 2nd putts - on average 5 inches closer to the hole. 

What about the 4-Putts? 

There were TEN in 2016 - up from the SEVEN in 2015.  They were obviously caused by unusually difficult pin placements:

• Round 1, THREE 4-Putts, on three different holes.
• Round 2, FOUR 4-Putts, 9th hole.
• Round 4, THREE 4-Putts, 6th hole.

I wonder if the Tour officials review their numbers to identify, and avoid, these overly difficult placements? 

Putting: Two important but different skills

Putting is 40% of the game at virtually every handicap level.  The higher the scoring level, the more putts are needed, but the ratio of # Putts/Score holds steady.  That is, up until the 20+ handicaps when the pickup holes, with no putts recorded, slightly lower the percentage.

So what are the two skills?

1.  Short putts:  Line and accuracy are crucial inside 10 feet.  Practicing a solid setup and alignment routine will help insure consistent accuracy.

2.  Distance control:  In longer, lag putts, the most important skill to develop is feel because distance is more important than line.

How much to practice each skill

A study of putting distances faced by the average golfer (15-19 handicap) reveals that practice time should be split 80% short putts / 20% distance control.  That's because 83% of total putts during an average round occur inside 10 feet (this is all putts:  1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd …).  When looking at just first-putt opportunities outside 10 feet, 88% fall between 11 and 40 feet; only 12% at 41+ feet.  

  

To practice your distance control, I recommend spending time gaining confidence in your 30 foot lag.  You can then make all other lag putts a function of that stroke.  It is very important when playing away from home to set up 30 foot tees and putt back and forth (I use two balls) until that distance becomes almost automatic.  When you hit the first green, you will be ready to stroke the first putt with confidence.

Work with your instructor on the specific practice drills for each skill, but your goals should be:

Short putts:  Increase your 50% Make distance – the distance from which you hole 50% of your putts.  See where you are on the graph below.

Distance control:  Work to expand your 2.00 Putt distance – the distance from which you two-Putt the vast majority, but one and three-putt with the same frequency on the rest.  Again, see where you fit on the graph below and work to extend your 2.00 distance.

You will need a way of accurately recording and analyzing your putting distances.  I recommend ShotByShot.com.  Self-serving?  Perhaps, but it's the only place I know where you can easily and accurately get the information you need to determine your exact strengths and weaknesses, and why. 

Determining your putting distances? I recommend that you build this into your pre-shot putting routine.  When you reach the green, you need to mark your ball and walk to the flag.  Simply count your steps.  For the longer putts, get to the midpoint - check the break - and count your steps back to your ball.  Then double the number.  Finally, know the distance of your average stride – heel to heel.  I am 6’ 1” and my average, walking stride is 28 inches.  I have to stride out a bit to average 3 feet, something that I actually practiced in my living room until it became automatic.

Strokes Gained Putting - Why is Jordan Spieth NOT #1?

How many times have we heard the TV announcer proclaim that Jordan is the best putter in the game?  Jordan is a GREAT putter, ranked #8 for the year in Strokes Gained and is clearly a PHENOMENAL clutch putter.  For the record, I believe Jordan is the best putter in the game and that he would be appropriately ranked #1 if the Majors were included in the ShotLink stats.  

[It is often overlooked that ShotLink stats are not captured for non-PGA Tour events, notably the Masters, US Open and British Open.  If Jordan's putting performance in these Majors were included, it would add 12 rounds (18%) of superior putting to the his 67 ShotLink rounds for 2015.  In case anyone forgot, Jordan's finishes in the three missing majors were:  Masters - #1, US Open - #1, British Open - #2.]

All that said, using the stats at my disposal:  Why is he not #1?  The simple answer turns out to be consistency.  When compared to the #1's that I have studied over the last four years, Jordan's WORST putting events (those with negative Strokes Gained totals) are slightly more frequent than these other players' (@ 5 of 20 (25%), but more importantly, his are more negative.  Jordan's five negative Strokes Gained events averaged -.99/round while the four most recent Strokes Gained #1's averaged only -.44/round on their negative Strokes Gained events.

The follow-up question is:  What changes about Jordan's putting to produce these negative SG events?   To answer this, I ran my BEST vs. WORST analysis on Jordan's 2015 ShotLink rounds.  [The BEST being the 15 events where Jordan recorded positive SG totals, and the WORST - the five events with negative SG totals.] 

The answer?  It is NOT an uncharacteristic flood of 3-Putts.  In fact, Jordan's 3-Putt numbers are good across the board and slightly better in his WORST putting events.  Jordan ranked 37th in 3-Putt Avoidance - only 3-Putting 2.4% of holes played.  The Tour average is 3.15%, and Aaron Baddeley (#1 Strokes Gained 2015) ranked 22nd @ 2.25.  Further, one of Jordan's strengths is his impressive distance control - but that is a topic for another day.    

The major difference was logically a drop off in 1-Putts almost across the board but specifically in the always critical 6 - 10 foot range.  As you can see from the chart above, this important range involves more 1st Putt opportunities than any other range - just under one in every four.  In his WORST putting events, Jordan fell significantly below his BEST performance AND the PGA Tour average in this range.  Not just coincidently, Jordan missed only four cuts this year.  Three of the four were also included in the WORST putting events.

Congratulations on a spectacular year, Jordan!  Tighten up that 6 - 10 foot range a bit and I look forward to studying you as the #1 ranked putter next year.     

How bad could Jordan Spieth's putting be in ANY range?

This year's Open at St. Andrews was by far the most exciting that I have watched.  Forgive me for being a big Zach Johnson supporter - I've been the stat advisor to Zach and his team for the past four years.

Please don't tell Zach, but I was also pulling for Jordan Spieth.  It bothered me to hear the commentators continually refer to Jordan as a poor putter in the important 5-10 ft. range.  I understand that this was intended to build suspense as Jordan stood over these critical putts.  But let's put the record straight.  First, Jordan is by no measure a "poor" putter.  Second, the rationale cited was  Jordan's Tour ranking of #87 in that range, which is just WRONG.  The ranking number is not wrong, but its use to support the assertion is dead wrong.  I decided to write this blog when a good friend (a very knowledgeable golfer - but not a ShotByShot.com subscriber?!) quoted this stat in the context of "... can you believe how bad Jordan is with these short range putts?" I did some homework to set him straight, and realized it was worth sharing.  I hope you agree.

Compaction

First, the Tour maintains a total of 649 Tour Stats.  With the exception of the two Strokes Gained stats (Putting and Tee-to-Green), the remaining 647 stats are one-dimensional snapshots of a small slice of performance and can be very misleading.  The rankings represent where the player stands relative to his peers.  But at this level - the very top of the game - differences are very slight.  I refer to it as "compaction."  For example, let's examine exactly what Jordan's 87th ranking in the 5-10 ft. putt range really means.

• The #1 ranked player is Troy Merritt (who?) makes 65.15% of his opportunities in this range.
• Jordan's 57.3% is better than the Tour avg. of 56%.
• This stat does not drop below 50% for any player until #190
• The worst player in this range, ranked #196, makes 45% of his opportunities.
• Like most players, Jordan averaged less that three putts (2.7) in this range per round.
• Finally, the range should be 6-10.  There is way too much difference in the average make % between 5' 4" and 8 or 9+ ft. so each player's actual spread of distances will influence the result.

Bottom line, Jordan's 57% is not bad at all - he's better than average in a very small slice of the overall putting pie.

Strokes Gained

Jordan Spieth is ranked #6 in this MOST IMPORTANT putting stat.  I don't recall this stat being mentioned in the telecast.  For those that are unfamiliar, this stat compares the player's performance for the distance of each putt opportunity to a model of the average performance of the entire Tour for that distance.  It is as close to perfect as a golf stat can get.  For a more complete explanation see:
 How Good is Strokes Gained Putting

The graph above displays Jordan's current Tour rankings from each distance range.  For perspective, I added his Strokes Gained Putting ranking (6) in blue.  When I average all the Tour rankings by range, Jordan would rank #48.  This makes no sense as the vast majority of putts fall into the first three ranges.  So I performed a weighted average based upon my educated estimates of the # of putts within each range.  In theory, the weighted average should approximate Jordan's overall skill level.  Instead it bumps Jordan up to #64 - a long way from his real skill level - #6.

In closing, my plea to broadcasters:  If you are going to cite statistics, please understand what they really mean.  If you need help, call me!

What is your 2.0 Putt Distance?

In studying performance at all levels for more than 25 years, I have found that there are two distinct skills needed to become a good putter:  Alignment and Distance Control.  Proper alignment is especially critical in the 1-Putt range.  Distance control is critical to avoid 3-Putts from longer range.  It is important to practice both skills.  I recommend spending 60% to 70% of your practice time on the former, or putts inside 10 ft., with special emphasis on 3, 4 and 5 footers.  I carry the SeeMore Triangulator in my golf bag, and do not let a week go by during the season without using it to sharpen my short putt alignment. 

I like to measure skill levels in these two important skills in terms of the 50% Make distance - the distance at which a player consistently makes 50% of their putts; and, the 2.0 Distance - the distance from which a player averages 2.0 putts.  Simply stated, from your 2.0 distance, you 2-Putt the vast majority.  But when you don't, you 1-Putt and 3-Putt with the same frequency. 

The graph above displays the 2.0 Putt distances for an array of handicap levels.  The 50% Make distances are:

Tour - 8 ft.,  0 Hcp - 7 ft.,  5 to 15 Hcp - 6 ft.  20 Hcp - 5 ft.

Over your next few rounds try to get a feel for where your skills stand.  If you would like to know precisely, log on to www.ShotByShot.com and register for our FREE Trial.  We have been providing Strokes Gained Analysis to all golfers since 1992. 

Kuchar's improbable finish at Harbour Town

A good friend texted me after Matt Kuchar's improbable closing holes to ask:  "Which is more likely, a 3-Putt from 4 ft. or to hole out from a greenside bunker?"  I do not have this stuff on the top of my head but was intrigued, so looked into ShotLink.

The greenside bunker shot holed is not that uncommon on Tour.  In 2013, there were 252 instances in 20,741 attempts or one in every 82 attempts. 

Since 2003, there have been 499 3-Putts from 4 ft. in 143,788 attempts or one in every 288 attempts. 

If my math is correct, the bunker holed is 3.5 times more likely.  I was not able to calculate the odds that one player would do both on consecutive holes.

Nice to see Kuchar close this one out.

It is interesting to note how the tables turn on these two outcomes as we move into the amateur ranks.  Let's take the average 10 handicap - The 3-Putt from 4 ft. becomes 2.4 times more likely than the hole out from the greenside sand.

3-Putt from 4 ft.:  1 in every 170 attempts

Hole out from greenside sand:  1 in every 408 attempts

What makes a great putter?

Brandt Snedeker ranked #1 in Strokes Gained Putting for the 2012 PGA Tour year.  Quite an accomplishment to be considered the best of the best.  I decided to see if I could find the key to his putting prowess - was there something that clearly separated Brandt from the rest?  My conclusion:  Two things stand out.
     1.  Consistency
     2.  Distance control

Consistency
In 18 events covered by ShotLink, Brandt recorded a negative Strokes Gained total in only five (28%).  While negative, these five poor putting events were not horrible.  The average of the five was only -.325 (only giving up .325 shots per round to the field) and his worst was only -.64.  

Brandt's other 13 events were positive SG numbers and for the year Brandt averaged .860 strokes gained on the field.  This profile is the picture of putting consistency.

But what exactly does he do to achieve this high level of consistent performance?  The answer does not exactly leap out of the Tour stats.  Speaking of the ..., there are NINE putting stat categories and 110 individual putting stats.  Each is expressed in a number or percentage with a ranking for perspective.  Further, there is a high degree of compaction which causes the rankings to sometimes be misleading.  That said, rankings in the TOP-20 on Tour are good in ANY stat.  The Tour average tends to be around 75.

Brandt's ranking for the year in a few stats stood out and lead me to my conclusion:

• 1 Putts 10-15 feet - rank 4 (this range consistently shows up in the Winners on Tour)
• 1-Putts > 25 feet - rank 8
• Putts made over 10 feet - rank 3
• Putts made over 20 feet - rank 4  

I believe that Brandt's high level of success in the four stats mentioned above comes from a great confidence in his distance control and the relative absence of fear about the length of the next putt.

Distance control
In 2000 and 2001, when Tiger was the dominant player on tour, I did a study of his distance control as it related to the other top players at the time.  I found that they all tended to average 7% of their start distance (40 foot start ==> inside 3 feet = 7%).  I also found that Tiger set himself apart by getting a higher percentage of his long distance lag putts to or past the hole.

ShotLink makes this exercise quite a bit easier and precise.  A study of Brand Snedeker's 2012 putts of 25 feet and greater revealed a similar result:

• His overall average lag distance - 6.5%
• 2-Putts - 5.8%
• 3-Putts - 14.2%

In both instances above (2 and 3 Putts), Brandt got 63% of these long putts to or past the hole.  I can't help but think of the annoying refrain:  Never up, never in!  Obviously, Brandt has taken it to heart.

Finally, we amateurs should take heed and work on distance control.  I like to focus on 10% of the start distance as my goal and highly recommend it.  First, we don't do this for a living and second, the math is much easier.

Muirfield brings out the worst in most - not Matt Kuchar

I have said for years that the frequency and severity of our mistakes in golf have a far greater influence on our score and handicap level than do our good shots.  Jack's event this weekend proved to be a great example of my point.  The table below displays the errors (mistakes) made by Matt Kuchar in his four rounds on Muirfield Village as compared to the average of the field.  For perspective, I added the average number of errors made by the PGA Tour in 2012 for an equivalent four rounds.

Muirfield Village is, without question, one of the most difficult courses visited by the Tour.  It is ranked the 3rd most difficult this year, based upon score over par, just behind PGA National - Champion (#2) and Augusta National (#1).  While I have yet to be invited to play Muirfield, I did walk (actually run) the course some years ago to record Shot By Shot data for Jack and his three pro am partners.  Not quite as much fun as playing but I did not lose a single ball.  

What did I learn?

• Playing is more difficult than walking.  The three amateurs, not bad golfers, picked up almost as often as they finished holes.
• Muirfield has lots of water that comes into play around the greens.  (Note the approach shot penalties are more than 2x the 2012 Tour average.)
• The greens and green complexes are very severe and present difficult short game shots. 

 In my study of the event this week, I was surprised to see that aside from the difficulty of the approach shots to the greens, it was the greens and their surroundings, especially the bunkers, that presented the greatest relative difficulty.  (Note the average number of short game errors were more than 50% higher than the 2012 Tour averages.) The Muirfield field made an error from the greenside sand 19.5% of the time - one in every five attempts.  This compares to 12%, or one in every nine attempts in all of 2012.

Matt Kuchar obviously had his sand game ready for Muirfield's test.  In seven attempts, his average putting distance was 6.7 feet (1.3 ft. closer than the field).  And he saved all seven (100% vs. 49% for the field), obviously with ZERO errors.  Well done, Matt!

How do your errors match up?  

Is Tiger Back? His Putting certainly is!

As an admitted statistical stalker of Tiger, I have good perspective on the parts of his game that separate him from the rest and punctuate his wins.  Until his two most recent wins, the dominant facet of his game has not been his putting.  An outrageous statement?  Let me explain:

It has been his Long Game Efficiency!  Tiger consistently hit more greens in regulation in fewer long game strokes than anyone in golf.  When I discovered this 2000 and 2001, I created my patented Long Game Efficiency Index to quantify his prowess.  The index also works well for amateurs, and is the foundation of the Long Game analysis contained in ShotByShot.com and fully explained in: A Better Way to Track Long Game Improvement.

This is not to in any way diminish Tiger's putting.  His has been consistently ranked near the top since Strokes Gained Putting has been used to analyze putting by the PGA Tour.  Further, we have all witnessed over and over that Tiger is one of the best clutch putters of all time.  So what is my point?

In my analysis of the Winners on the PGA Tour, putting is more often than not the difference maker and the Winners often record 'Strokes Gained' totals above 2.00 and even 3.00 (meaning that they have "gained" 2+ or 3+ strokes on the field PER ROUND.  Not so with Tiger.

Since 2004, Tiger has recorded 29 wins in which Shotlink captured his putting and Strokes Gained numbers were published.  Here are the Strokes Gained putting highlights of his prior 28 Wins:

• 2013 Bay Hill was the first event with a SG total above 2.00 (an impressive 2.798)
• Tiger's prior high was 1.981 @ 2013 Honda - just 2 weeks ago.
• The average of his 28 prior wins was 1.087 vs. 1.398 and 1.360 for 2012 and 2011 winners respectively.
• Tiger posted a win at the 07 WGC Cadillac Champ. with a -.793 SG Total.  This means that he won despite giving back over 3 strokes to the field in four rounds.  I have seen this once before BUT in a much reduced field.  It was Rory McIlroy's -.21 in the BMW Championship semi-finals of the FEDEX Cup.  

Perhaps Tiger simply putts as well as needed when he feels a win coming.  He needed to putt well this week because he made FIVE driving errors (1-Penalty, 4-No Shots) and only hit 11.5 GIR's.  Not his, or ANYONE's typical winning numbers.

 

Finally, it should be noted that two of his best statistical putting performances EVER came in very close succession in his most recent two wins.  If Tiger has found something and can hold onto it for a couple of weeks, I make him a clear favorite at the Masters.  Ignore this if you are part of my Master's Weekend Pool!      

How Good Was Tiger's Putting at Trump Doral?

The announcers and analysts raved about Tiger's putting this week, and rightly so.  Over the last few years I have noticed that the winners on the PGA Tour tend to separate themselves in the ranges between 10 and 20 feet.  Certainly 4 - 10 foot putts are important but all the contenders putt well inside 10 feet or they would not be there.  It is consistently making the longer 1-putts that earmarks the winners.

Tiger exemplified this trend in his win at Trump Doral this week.  The graph above displays Tiger this week, my 2012 Winner's profile and a large sample of Tiger's rounds - mostly wins - that I have collected over the past several years (Tiger Past).

I find three things of particular note about Tiger's putting:
1.  Tiger made 6 of 11 putts, or 55%, in the 16 - 20 foot range this week.  Try this at home!  Here are some comparative number for perspective on just how good this was:

• 2012 Winners:  made 23% (or less than 3 of 11);
• PGA Tour Average for 2013:  made 17% (or less than 2 of 11); 
• 15-19 Handicap:  makes 6% (or less than 1 of 11).  This group will actually 3-Putt from this range almost TWICE as often as 1-Putt.

2.  What is going on in the 11 - 15 foot range, Tiger?  At just 3 of 13 (23%), Tiger is quite a bit below the 2012 Winners, and it seems to be a pattern.  More comparative data:

• PGA Tour Average for 2013:  30%
• Event average:  31%
• 15-19 Handicap:  11%
• @ 23% Tiger is about a 0 handicap.

3.  Tiger 1-Putted 61% of the 71 holes where he had a putting opportunity (One "off shore" chip in).  This is exceptional:

• 2012 Winners:  46%
• PGA Tour Average for 2013:   39%
• Event average:  44% (remember, a reduced field of Top players)
• 15-19 Handicap:  21%  

Congratulations Tiger!  Nice to see you smile - it's good for the game.

Putting IS for Dough!

The Snedeker - Hahn final round pairing at Pebble was refreshing as Jim Nantz remarked: "...they smiled their entire way around the course."  One can only hope that their example sets a new trend on Tour.  As likeable as Brandt Snedeker is, James Hahn gives him an honest run...  His now famous dance on the 16th green at Scottsdale was not only artfully done but seemed genuinely spontaneous and joyous.  I actually watched his post, 3rd round interview online this week - I never do that.  Again, he is refreshingly happy to be there.  I learned that his nick name is "The Asian Brad Pitt."  Good to know!  James, you just may be my new favorite player on Tour.

Given that it was your first final-round share of the lead James, you made a very good showing.  Too bad you ran into a putting buzz saw.  The relatively small, Pebble greens were designed to be one of the defenses of this relatively short course.  That is short by today's standards @ 6,900+, par 72.  The greens were firm and fast and statistically difficult for all but Brandt, who blew the field away with 3.185 Strokes Gained on the greens in his final round.  Brandt did this with a 3-Putt from only 22 feet on the 9th hole.  That green alone set him back just over a full stroke.  Were it not for this blemish, Mr. Snedeker would have been in the rare air of 4+ Strokes Gained on the field.  Phil Mickelson did this to Tiger last year posting 4.78 Strokes Gained in his final-round to Tiger's -5.288 (Strokes Lost).  For more on this and an explanation of Strokes Gained Putting see:  (How-good-is-strokes-gained-putting?)

Let's put these Strokes Gained numbers into perspective:

1.  Brandt Snedeker was the #1 putter on Tour in 2012.  He averaged .86 Strokes Gained on the field over the entire year - IMPRESSIVE!  No wonder he won the FedX Cup!

2.  The 25 Winners that I studied in 2012 averaged 1.40 Strokes Gained per round.  Typically, three of their four rounds were gaining 1 to 3 strokes on the field and most winners survived a clunker - a slightly negative putting round.
   
The best 4-round total was 3.001.  Keegan Bradley @ Firestone.  All 4 rounds were plus numbers highlighted by 5.537 final round - the best total and the best single round I have seen.

The worst 4-round total:  -.21  Rory McIlroy @ Crooked Stick.  Incredibly, Rory lost strokes to the field in 3 of his 4 rounds.  It was; however, a much reduced field - the semi-finals of the FedX Cup.

The worst single round that I saw among the winners was Tiger who survived a 3rd round -2.649 on his way to victory at Muirfield.  Not to jump on Tiger, but his aforementioned -5.288 (against Phil at Pebble last year) is the worst single round I have seen.  Bear in mind, I usually only study the winners and players with whom I am working.

So, James Hahn's -.566 Strokes Gained final round does not seem all that bad.  However, when Stacked up against Brandt's positive 3.185, simple math reveals 3.75 of the five stroke difference in their scores.  They both hit 14 Greens and each made a single bogey.  The difference, Brandt rolled in EIGHT birdies while James made only THREE. 

What effect did the wind have on the 30 champions in Kapalua?

The Plantation course at Kapalua is a bomber's paradise with ample targets and large greens.  The four par 5's as well as three of the par 4's are reachable.  It is no surprise that a player like Dustin Johnson, if on his game, would win.  I found the most interesting aspect of this event to be the severe winds and their impact on performance.

The greatest impact was on putting!

Kapalua's greens are always near the top by my measure of difficulty, but were even more so this week due to extreme winds.  [For more on my measure of relative green difficulty, see my last entry:  Were the Barclays Greens Unfair?]  I look at two stats as a measure of putting difficulty:

1.  3-Putt Avoidance - the higher the number or frequency of 3-Putts, the more difficult the greens;

2.  # of Players in the field with ZERO 3-Putts - the lower the number, the more difficult...

3-Putt Avoidance

Last year the field at Kapalua was 5.04% - the highest of all the courses that I checked in my 2012 study.  5.04% means that the entire field (only 30 player/champions) averaged 3.6 3-Putts in 72 holes.  For perspective, in a typical tournament, an average field would 3-Putt twice in 72 holes.  This year the average for the Hyundai field at Kapalua was 7.47%.  The 30 champions averaged FOUR 3-Putts in just 54 holes.  Further, Dustin Johnson (the winner) had three 3-Putts.  Most PGA Tour winners have NONE, but some sneak by with only one putting blemish.

Players with zero 3-Putts

The average for the 25 courses in my 2012 study was 12 players.  In the 2012 Hyundai, only ONE player in the field escaped without a 3-Jack.  (Guess who?*)  This year's field not only had NO such lucky players, the best were seven players that had only two 3-Putts.  None of the events in last year's study had NO players in this category.

The long game was the least affected

Greens-hit in-regulation achieved by the field were almost identical from 2012 to 2013:  14.6 vs. 14.5.  Even these numbers are high as the Tour average in 2012 was 11.3 GIR's.

Finally, I thought that approach shot accuracy would certainly be affected by the high winds - I know mine is.  Not so much!  Proximity to the hole following approach shots was also very close from 2012 to 2013:  40' 7" vs. 41' 1".  Literally only six inches or less than 1% difference in accuracy in 30 to 40 MPH gusting winds.  THESE GUYS REALLY ARE GOOD!

*Bubba Watson!

Were the Barclays greens unfair?

First, the Barclays felt a lot like a Major.  I give credit to Bethpage Black - with an assist from the FedEx Cup - for helping to insure that the top players remain engaged as the season winds down.  This course is hard.  With the rough long and thick and the greens fast and severe, it is every bit of its 78.1 course rating, and more.  My "A" group had the thrill of playing there just before it was closed down for the first Open.  We found it almost too hard to enjoy.

There was some whining about the greens being unfair this time, so I decided to dig into this a bit.  First, I have never seen a winner on the PGA Tour 3-putt SIX times as Nick Watney did.  Typically, a winner will have zero or one 3-putts.  Ricky Fowler survived FOUR 3-putts to win in a play-off at Quail Hollow - extremely unusual.  

I thought, "If the winner had six 3-putts, how did the rest of the field fare?  Were the greens unfair?"  For the answer, I re-read my recent blog, written after the 2012 Memorial, in which I discussed a reasonable measure of green difficulty - the age-old Tour stat:  3-Putt Avoidance:  The % of time 3 or more putts were taken for a hole (total 3 and 4-putts divided by the total holes played.)  To read this blog, click here.

According to my 3-Putt Avoidance barometer, Bethpage Black ranks right up there @ 3.51.  This says that the field averaged just over 2.5 3-Putts in 72 holes.  For perspective, the four Majors in 2012 averaged 3.91, with the Masters the most difficult @ 4.88; the British Open the most benign @ 2.53. 

Not quite satisfied, I dug deeper.  What about the number of players in any event that had ZERO 3-putts?  Surely this might provide a strong indicator as to the difficulty of the greens.  I looked at this stat for the 35 events in the books YTD:

# Players with ZERO 3-Putts by event

Fewest (Most Difficult Greens)

• 3 players (Augusta, TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill)
• 5 players (Riviera, Quail Hollow)
• 6 players (Torry Pines, TPC San Antonio)
• 9 players (TPC Four Seasons, Colonial, Olympic, Congressional, Bethpage Black)

Average for all 35 events - 13 players had zero 3-putts

Most (Easiest Greens)

• 79 players (Trump Puerto Rico)
• 27 players (TPC Louisiana)
• 21 players (Waialea, Copperhead)

Two Points:

1.   Bethpage clearly did not stand out as unfair but stood up nicely with other Major venues as challanging.

2.  Wouldn't The Donald be horrified by this analysis.  To twist the blade, the field at the Trump Puerto Rico event was smaller than the average tour field at only 132 players.  So 60% of the field did not have a 3-Putt!  And dare I say that it was not the strongest field? 

  

Which course has the most difficult greens?

Jack's Memorial looked like a mini-Major with a winning score of only -9.  A more typical winning score on Tour is -12 to -18.   I have not played Muirfield Village (...never get invited anywhere!) but I have walked/run the course (long story).  In my opinion, it is a very hard golf course - streams meander thru and around almost every hole; the woods loom large, deep and dark; and the green complexes are severe.  Remember when Jack added special rakes that created deep furrows in the sand traps?  How hard is it?  The Course rating/Slope system does a fairly good job of displaying the relative difficulty and Muirfield "Memorial" tees are rated 76.9/153, which is up there - 4.9 strokes above the 72 par for the scratch golfer.  

Watching the event, I wondered "OK, I get the difficulty of the course but what about the greens alone?  There must be a way to judge the most difficult greens on Tour."  As my readers know, I am a big fan of the Tour's new Strokes Gained Putting stat.  I am certain that the answer lies in this data but is not readily available to "outsiders" because the raw data is "normalized" each week so that all we see is how players relate to the average of the entire field for that event.  The average "Strokes Lost" to the Tour's performance model each week would clearly reveal the relative difficulty of the greens at each venue.  Until I can get this data, is there another way?

How about the relative frequency of 3-putts for the field?  For this, I looked at an old, traditional Tour stat - 3-Putt Avoidance:  The percent of time 3 or more putts were taken for a hole (total 3 and 4-putts divided by the total holes played).  I looked at all 2012 Tour events (thru Memorial) and found the following:

• The average of all 22 events:  3.31 (2.38 3-Putts per 72 holes played)
• Easiest greens:  Doral Blue Monster @ 1.95 (1.40 3-Putts per 72 holes played). 
• Most difficult:  Kapalua Plantation @ 5.04 (3.62 3-Putts per 72 holes played)

Other difficult greens:

• Augusta National:  4.88 (3.51 3-Putts per 72 holes)
• Quail Hollow:  4.33
• TPC Sawgrass:  4.32

Other easy greens:

• Harbor Town:  2.04 (1.46 3-Putts per 72 holes)
• Waialea CC:  2.19

To add some perspective on 3-Putt performance, the graph above compares the average # of 3-Putts per round for the PGA Tour Winners (2012) and Tour average to an array of handicap levels.  

No wonder Rickie Fowler hasn't WON before!

I have never paid much attention to Rickie Fowler - although he is hard to miss when he shows up dressed like a giant creamsicle.  But then, if I were paid what I can only guess he is paid, I would probably...  In what little I have seen of Rickie on TV, I have concluded that he is a poor putter.  He just seems to miss too many key putts when in the spotlight.  So when I saw him sneaking up the leaderboard on Sunday at Quail Hollow I assumed that he would fall short, again.  The fact that he hung on to win surprised me and made me question my belief that Rickie's weakness is his putting.  As I try to study the winner of every event, I looked forward to taking a close look at Rickie and what he did to get his first win.

First, my impressions were correct - Rickie is a POOR putter - by PGA Tour standards.  In this event he simply putted well enough to squeak by.  The Strokes Gained Putting stats - by far the Tour's BEST stat -  support my point (for an explanation of this stat, see: At-last-putting-analysis-we-can-trust):

• Fowler's Strokes Gained total of .672 at Quail Hollow was the second worst of the 13 Winners that I have studied this season.  Only Justin Rose putted worse in his win at Doral (.114).  
• The 2012 Winners have averaged 1.549.  This means they have gained 1.5+ strokes on the field per round, or just over six strokes per 4-round event. 
• Rickie has recorded NEGATIVE Strokes Gained putting totals in SIX of the TEN "measured" events this season.   (Measured means tour ShotLink data is collected.)
• His average for these six events is -1.345 vs. only .695 for the three positive Strokes Gained totals.
• For the season to date, Rickie is ranked 140 in this important stat.  His overall average per round is -.235.
• This is clearly why Rickie has had trouble getting a win on Tour.  Just like the old adage that "99% of putts that don't reach the hole, don't go in" - I can add that 99% of players that give back strokes to the field on the greens, DON'T WIN!  

So how did Rickie win at Quail Hollow?
Very simply, his long game carried him to victory.  It was sharp and efficient and featured zero serious errors.  His short game complemented his long game in that it was solid and also produced no errors.  Rickie's putting - just good enough.

Driving - 2nd in accuracy, but more importantly, no penalty strokes on a very difficult driving golf course with many well-placed hazards.

GIR's - Ranked 5th with 14.25.  This is very good -  the 2012 Winners average just under 13 GIR's.

Proximity ARG - Ranked 8th @ 5' 10."  This is the stat that measures the putting distance after every shot that starts within 30 yards of the edge of the green.  The field avg. was 7' 3."

Hopefully Rickie's coach has recognized and is addressing the glaring weakness in Rickie's game.  Clearly, if he expects to contend with top tier players on the PGA Tour, he needs dramatic improvement in his putting. 

No Wonder Luke Donald is #1 in the World!

 

Last week I mentioned one of my general rules for winning on the PGA Tour:  Stack-18.  I emphasize GENERAL because as with most RULES it does not always hold true.  Such was the case with Justin Rose last week at the WGC event.  I pointed this out because Justin was the lowest "Stack" Winner that I have seen at 16.6.  By contrast, Luke Donald built the highest Stack at 20.9 when he recently won the Transitions Championship.  

What is Stack-18?

In my ongoing study of the Winners on Tour, I have observed that they consistently stack up a total of  the following three key stats for a grand total of 18:

1.  GIR's

2.  Successful Scrambles - The number of par saves when the GIR is missed.

3.  Strokes Gained - Putting

I take each of these stats (per round averages for the event) and add them together.  As you can see from the chart above, the average total for the winners of the first nine tournaments of 2012 is 18.1 (this excludes Luke Donald).  With the exception of Luke and the aforementioned Justin Rose, there is an eerie consistency among the rest as they are tightly clustered around the magic #18.  

The reason Luke Donald's stack is so high is that he actually doubles up on two pieces of the stack.  His successful scrambles (79%) are high because of his short game prowess AND his exceptional putting.  Luke's short game is strong but his putting is the best on Tour.  He was #1 in Strokes Gained Putting in 2011 and #1 in the Transitions tournament at 2.59.  This number tells us that based upon the distance of each putting opportunity, and the number of putts needed to hole out, Luke beat the average putting performance of the Transitions' field by an average of 2.59 shots per round - or over 10 strokes in total for the tournament.

Despite a lone 3-putt (50 ft.), Luke Donald 1-putted 34 of 70 holes (that's 49%!!) and OH, he holed out from "off-shore" on the other two holes.  In addition to his 17, par saving, 1-putts to achieve a 79% Scrambling stat (the Tour avg. is 58%), Luke had 17 additional 1-putt greens.   I hope my fellow Master's pool participants aren't reading this ... little chance,  only a couple of them can read.

What edged Justin Rose to #1 at Doral?

 

You = Justin Rose @ TPC Blue Monster - Doral

According to my general rules for Winners on the PGA Tour, Justin should have come up short.  He averaged only 63% when matched up to my 70% Rule and totaled only 16.6 next to my Stack-18.  I have not written about the latter yet but will soon.  Briefly, the Winners achieve a total of 18 when adding the following three key stats:

1. GIR's/per round (11.75)
2. Successful Scrambles (Non-GIR's x Scrambling %) - (6.25 x 76% = 4.75)
3. Strokes Gained - Putting for the event - (.114)

 Justin's Total = 16.64 

What did Justin do well?

Long Game - He kept the ball in play.  Justin had no penalties on a course that had its share of penalty opportunities.  The Tour does not give us penalty data but I saw a bunch during the telecast and the other players that I studied each had some. 

Short Game - Justin had 26 Chip/Pitch shots in his four rounds.  He got the ball on the green 25 times (20 / 77% finished within 5 feet of the hole) with an overall average putting distance of 3' 7".  The single short game shot that missed the green was on the 72nd hole where Justin was faced with a very difficult pitch over bunkers to a green that "ran away" toward the water.  Only needing to get down in two, he allowed the ball to barely roll past the pin and stop a foot or so off the green.

By way of perspective, the prior 2012 Winners that I have studied, have achieved average putting distances of 6' 7" - obviously very good.  Boy, is that a significant 3 feet!  The Tour average 1-Putt percentage jumps from just under 60% at 6' 7" to just under 90% at 3' 7".  It is no wonder that Justin's Strokes Gained Putting stat was so mediocre (he barely bested the field) .  It wasn't that he was missing putts that he should make, it was that he was rarely far enough from the hole for his 1-putts to rack up any meaningful strokes saved vs. the model.   

How Close is Tiger?

 

TIGER's SHOT BY SHOT.com PUTTING HANDICAPS

2012 Honda Classic

I had almost forgotten how much fun it was to see Tiger charging at the end of a PGA Tour event.  My peaked interest in this week's Honda Classic motivated me to watch the action LIVE, which I almost never do - I hate the commercials.  I prefer to record the telecast and tune in about half way.  This allows me to  fast forward through the commercials and "fluff" to finish in time to catch any playoff live.  But this event was exciting from the beginning of the Golf Channel telecast thanks to Tiger's early tee time and great play.

My extended viewing caused me to hear lots of pundit-speak about how close Tiger was, and opinions on what he needed to return to form.  I will admit that the Sunday morning experts alluded to Tiger's putting, but once again showed their lack of sophistication (or their AGE) by citing the number of putts spent in the first three rounds - COME ON PEOPLE!  Tiger's Strokes Gained - Putting stats laid it out clearly.  He gave up 2.35 strokes to the field in the first two rounds (3.6 strokes to Rory McIlroy).  His putting improved in the third round to gain 1.43 strokes on the field but still .6 strokes behind Rory.  Tiger's putting in the final round was exceptional but so was Rory's.  Overall, Tiger gained .56 strokes on the field, but LOST 3.9 strokes to Rory.  Bear in mind, this is putting alone - the one part of the game where we no longer need to guess.

Considering Tiger fell short by just two strokes, it would indicate that the rest of Tiger's game stands up well to the World's new #1.  I looked more closely and agree that it did, at least in this event.

Long Game

Tiger needed only 32.9 long game strokes to achieve 12.5 GIR's  per round while Rory needed 32.2 long strokes to reach 12 GIR's.  In addition to hitting two more GIR's, Tiger's average proximity to the hole was 20 feet - four feet closer than Rory's 24 foot avg.  I give the long game edge to Tiger.

Short Game

Tiger had 26 short game opportunities to Rory's 30.  While Rory clearly won the "Up-and-Down" battle (73% vs. 62%), as I have preached for years - that stat is a composite of short game + PUTTING.  A better measurement would be proximity to the hole.  Rory also won this one but only by one foot (5' 10" vs. 6' 11").  When I think about standing over it, that is an important 13 inches.  That said, we can give the short game edge to Rory - but not by much.

Bottom line, it was clearly Rory's putting prowess that won the day.  Congratulations Rory!  Tiger, welcome back!  Whatever you and Sean Foley worked on after Friday's round did the trick.  Keep up the good work and I look forward to  watching more live TV - it's good for the game.

How Good is "Strokes Gained - Putting?"

For those that need a refresher, Strokes Gained - Putting is the Tour's new putting statistic. It compares the distance of each putting opportunity to a model of the average Tour performance from that distance to calculate strokes gained or lost.  Each player's totals for each round is compared to the average of the field to reveal his strokes gained or lost.  It works!

It was great to see Phil and Tiger paired together in the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, at least for a few holes...  I cannot recall two more contrasting performances by marquee players.  Phil beat Tiger head to head by 11 strokes AND in the final round while both had their sights set on a win.  But wait, even more astounding was that ten of the eleven strokes was PUTTING alone.

How do I know this?  Their respective Strokes Gained - Putting numbers for the final round are:

    Phil:  4.799  (Phil beat the field average by almost 5 strokes.)

  Tiger: -5.288  (Tiger was 5+ strokes worse than the average performance of the field.  His ShotByShot.com Putting Handicap for the round was 21.  This is as high as I've seen for a tour player - much less one in contention to win the tournament.)

Put the two together, and Phil beat Tiger, on the greens alone, by 10 strokes!

I am a big fan of the Tour's new putting stat.  As I have trumpeted to anyone that will listen, I adopted this method of putting analysis 20 years ago and it has been the basis for ShotByShot.com's putting analysis since I launched the website in 2005.  That said, given the vast differences in the two player's long and short games, how could these game components (everything BUT putting) account for only 1 stroke?  See if you can follow my math.

First, the Putting

Tiger took 31 putts to Phil's 26 = 5 strokes.  If they had putted from the same spots (distances) on all 18 greens, these FIVE strokes would have been the extent of the difference in their putting performance, but they did not.

Tiger's average putting distance was 6 feet closer than Phil's (14 vs. 20 feet).  The Tour's model allocates another five strokes to their respective distances over the 18 holes.  It is not as simple as the difference in the averages (14 vs. 20 ft.) because the Tour's model, like mine, is not a straight line.  The five strokes are an accumulation of the differences in the values of each specific distance.  Please accept my word on this.

The Rest of the Game = 1 Stroke??

Bottom line, Tiger hit five fewer GIR's than Phil (9 vs. 14) with the same number of full swings (34).  With fewer GIR's, Tiger needed six more short game shots (10 vs. 4) to reach his 18 greens.  Subtract five because Tiger's ultimate putting positions were five strokes better/closer than Phil's, and there's the single stroke needed to make the total strokes add up.

Allocating the strokes lost or saved between Tiger's and Phil's long and short games tells another story, but for another time.  Please contact me with questions @ PSanders@shotbyshot.com.