Is Tiger Back? His Putting certainly is!

As an admitted statistical stalker of Tiger, I have good perspective on the parts of his game that separate him from the rest and punctuate his wins.  Until his two most recent wins, the dominant facet of his game has not been his putting.  An outrageous statement?  Let me explain:

It has been his Long Game Efficiency!  Tiger consistently hit more greens in regulation in fewer long game strokes than anyone in golf.  When I discovered this 2000 and 2001, I created my patented Long Game Efficiency Index to quantify his prowess.  The index also works well for amateurs, and is the foundation of the Long Game analysis contained in ShotByShot.com and fully explained in: A Better Way to Track Long Game Improvement.

This is not to in any way diminish Tiger's putting.  His has been consistently ranked near the top since Strokes Gained Putting has been used to analyze putting by the PGA Tour.  Further, we have all witnessed over and over that Tiger is one of the best clutch putters of all time.  So what is my point?

In my analysis of the Winners on the PGA Tour, putting is more often than not the difference maker and the Winners often record 'Strokes Gained' totals above 2.00 and even 3.00 (meaning that they have "gained" 2+ or 3+ strokes on the field PER ROUND.  Not so with Tiger.

Since 2004, Tiger has recorded 29 wins in which Shotlink captured his putting and Strokes Gained numbers were published.  Here are the Strokes Gained putting highlights of his prior 28 Wins:

• 2013 Bay Hill was the first event with a SG total above 2.00 (an impressive 2.798)
• Tiger's prior high was 1.981 @ 2013 Honda - just 2 weeks ago.
• The average of his 28 prior wins was 1.087 vs. 1.398 and 1.360 for 2012 and 2011 winners respectively.
• Tiger posted a win at the 07 WGC Cadillac Champ. with a -.793 SG Total.  This means that he won despite giving back over 3 strokes to the field in four rounds.  I have seen this once before BUT in a much reduced field.  It was Rory McIlroy's -.21 in the BMW Championship semi-finals of the FEDEX Cup.  

Perhaps Tiger simply putts as well as needed when he feels a win coming.  He needed to putt well this week because he made FIVE driving errors (1-Penalty, 4-No Shots) and only hit 11.5 GIR's.  Not his, or ANYONE's typical winning numbers.

 

Finally, it should be noted that two of his best statistical putting performances EVER came in very close succession in his most recent two wins.  If Tiger has found something and can hold onto it for a couple of weeks, I make him a clear favorite at the Masters.  Ignore this if you are part of my Master's Weekend Pool!      

How Good Was Tiger's Putting at Trump Doral?

The announcers and analysts raved about Tiger's putting this week, and rightly so.  Over the last few years I have noticed that the winners on the PGA Tour tend to separate themselves in the ranges between 10 and 20 feet.  Certainly 4 - 10 foot putts are important but all the contenders putt well inside 10 feet or they would not be there.  It is consistently making the longer 1-putts that earmarks the winners.

Tiger exemplified this trend in his win at Trump Doral this week.  The graph above displays Tiger this week, my 2012 Winner's profile and a large sample of Tiger's rounds - mostly wins - that I have collected over the past several years (Tiger Past).

I find three things of particular note about Tiger's putting:
1.  Tiger made 6 of 11 putts, or 55%, in the 16 - 20 foot range this week.  Try this at home!  Here are some comparative number for perspective on just how good this was:

• 2012 Winners:  made 23% (or less than 3 of 11);
• PGA Tour Average for 2013:  made 17% (or less than 2 of 11); 
• 15-19 Handicap:  makes 6% (or less than 1 of 11).  This group will actually 3-Putt from this range almost TWICE as often as 1-Putt.

2.  What is going on in the 11 - 15 foot range, Tiger?  At just 3 of 13 (23%), Tiger is quite a bit below the 2012 Winners, and it seems to be a pattern.  More comparative data:

• PGA Tour Average for 2013:  30%
• Event average:  31%
• 15-19 Handicap:  11%
• @ 23% Tiger is about a 0 handicap.

3.  Tiger 1-Putted 61% of the 71 holes where he had a putting opportunity (One "off shore" chip in).  This is exceptional:

• 2012 Winners:  46%
• PGA Tour Average for 2013:   39%
• Event average:  44% (remember, a reduced field of Top players)
• 15-19 Handicap:  21%  

Congratulations Tiger!  Nice to see you smile - it's good for the game.

Why didn't Josh Teater WIN at Torrey Pines?

First - More Blog Posts?

Just returned from the PGA Show in Orlando.  I had the pleasure of connecting with quite a few of my instructor/clients.  I am most gratified that they all: a) read this blog avidly; and b) expressed an interest in more posts.  I discussed this with my great friend, Henry Brunton, (now a bona fide instructor/coach Rock Star) as he echoed this sentiment.  Understanding the work that goes into each blog post, Henry suggested posting weekly, but making three of every four much shorter.  As I do with all of Henry's wise advice, I will take it.  Further, if YOU have a statistical topic that you would like me to explore, please let me know!

What about Josh Teater?  

Tied for 2nd, Josh finished six shots behind Tiger.  Just try to find those six shots in the stats...

Using some of my favorite statistical barometers [Stack-18 (explained) and the 70% Rule (70% Rule explained)], Josh's performance was clearly better than Tiger's.

I can only conclude that Josh sprinkled more than a few of those pesky ERRORS into his game - the ones that cost strokes but disappear in the Tour stats.  As the Tour's Shot Tracker data also disappears from its website at some point each Tuesday night, I cannot answer my own question.  But true to my word, it certainly makes for a much shorter blog....

I really did look for clues:

1.  Missed Fairway Percent - Other:  (The % of missed fairways that result in a location other than the fairway or rough.)

Josh had one of these "Others."  If it were an OB/Lost, it would account for at least 2 of the 6 lost shots but we'll never know.  BTW, this could also have been a par 4 drive that reached the putting surface.
According to the stats, Tiger had NONE of these Others but I don't trust this stat because on the 15th hole in the 4th round, Tiger drove into an "Unknown" location and incurred a penalty (drop).  If that's not an Other, what is?

2.  Proximity ARG - (How close to the hole on average for all shots starting within 30 yards of the edge of the green.)
I generally like this stat as it tends to correlate fairly closely to ShotByShot.com's short game proximity.  Josh ranked 53rd at 8' 2" average proximity.  This compares to Tiger's 7' 1" and the field's 7' 11".  My guess: Josh made some errors in this part of his game - but again, the proof is lost in the Tour stats.

Finally, if I were Josh Teater's coach, and spent the time to go through this exercise, I would be extremely frustrated with not being able to answer the important question:  Why didn't Josh Teater WIN at Torrey Pines?     

How Close is Tiger?

 

TIGER's SHOT BY SHOT.com PUTTING HANDICAPS

2012 Honda Classic

I had almost forgotten how much fun it was to see Tiger charging at the end of a PGA Tour event.  My peaked interest in this week's Honda Classic motivated me to watch the action LIVE, which I almost never do - I hate the commercials.  I prefer to record the telecast and tune in about half way.  This allows me to  fast forward through the commercials and "fluff" to finish in time to catch any playoff live.  But this event was exciting from the beginning of the Golf Channel telecast thanks to Tiger's early tee time and great play.

My extended viewing caused me to hear lots of pundit-speak about how close Tiger was, and opinions on what he needed to return to form.  I will admit that the Sunday morning experts alluded to Tiger's putting, but once again showed their lack of sophistication (or their AGE) by citing the number of putts spent in the first three rounds - COME ON PEOPLE!  Tiger's Strokes Gained - Putting stats laid it out clearly.  He gave up 2.35 strokes to the field in the first two rounds (3.6 strokes to Rory McIlroy).  His putting improved in the third round to gain 1.43 strokes on the field but still .6 strokes behind Rory.  Tiger's putting in the final round was exceptional but so was Rory's.  Overall, Tiger gained .56 strokes on the field, but LOST 3.9 strokes to Rory.  Bear in mind, this is putting alone - the one part of the game where we no longer need to guess.

Considering Tiger fell short by just two strokes, it would indicate that the rest of Tiger's game stands up well to the World's new #1.  I looked more closely and agree that it did, at least in this event.

Long Game

Tiger needed only 32.9 long game strokes to achieve 12.5 GIR's  per round while Rory needed 32.2 long strokes to reach 12 GIR's.  In addition to hitting two more GIR's, Tiger's average proximity to the hole was 20 feet - four feet closer than Rory's 24 foot avg.  I give the long game edge to Tiger.

Short Game

Tiger had 26 short game opportunities to Rory's 30.  While Rory clearly won the "Up-and-Down" battle (73% vs. 62%), as I have preached for years - that stat is a composite of short game + PUTTING.  A better measurement would be proximity to the hole.  Rory also won this one but only by one foot (5' 10" vs. 6' 11").  When I think about standing over it, that is an important 13 inches.  That said, we can give the short game edge to Rory - but not by much.

Bottom line, it was clearly Rory's putting prowess that won the day.  Congratulations Rory!  Tiger, welcome back!  Whatever you and Sean Foley worked on after Friday's round did the trick.  Keep up the good work and I look forward to  watching more live TV - it's good for the game.

What were the odds of a playoff at Bay Hill?

Three  things struck me as I enjoyed Arnie's Invitational at Bay Hill.  I will address them in reverse order of importance:

1.  Where's Waldo & Tiger?

I cannot remember watching a Tiger-included event in which he was not seen or mentioned in the final round, regardless of where he was in the field.  This week was no different than most others as we saw quite a bit of Tiger on Saturday despite his position 9 or 10 holes ahead of the leaders.  Could his  conspicuous absence on Sunday have anything to do with the driver that he let fly in anger on Saturday?  That's my guess as the King is all about tradition, gracious and gentlemanly conduct and what's good for the game - club throwing - NOT!  Doubt his influence?  NBC recently partnered with the Golf Channel - Arnie helped found and fund the Golf Channel. 

2.  Worst closing round EVER! 
Since I have been recording and analyzing the Tour Winners on ShotByShot.com (early 2009), this 280 (-8) is the highest 4-round total that I have seen for a non-major.  Partially due to the course - good job, Arnie - but also just poor play.  Martin Laird's final round +3, 75 should not have been good enough to win but for a major stumble by Steve Marino and the final-hole bogey by Marc Leishman.  In any case, it made for good drama - much more fun to watch than a multiple shot victory.

3.  What ARE the odds of Laird's 2-putt on 18 from 87 feet? 
Johnny Miller gave us his estimate of the odds of a 3-putt/playoff:  40% This would mean 2-putt/Win:  60%.  I was struck by how little credit was given to the great lag putt that followed Johnny's prediction - 3' 7" - especially with the win on the line.  One of the on-course commentators chimed in with the note that Martin had 3-putted from close range (23 FEET) on the final hole of the Barclays only to subsequently lose in a playoff.  Thank goodness Martin could not hear this great comment...  I was thinking it as I wrote about this in my 9/1/2010 entry:  How Hard is it to WIN on the PGA Tour?  

What are the odds?
Hard to say because the Tour does not provide detail on putting stats by range outside 35 feet, but here is what I was able to get:
a.  For all putts greater than 35 feet in 2011 (8 events) the Tour averaged 2.11 putts and Martin Laird was slightly better at 2.02 (ranked T17).  Not very helpful!

b.  The average distance from which the Tour will experience a 3-putt following a GIR is:  41 feet.  Again, Martin is a bit better - 45 feet.  Again, little help with our 87 foot challenge?

So much for the Tour, I decided to break it into pieces.  From my study of distance control on the PGA Tour, I learned that the Top-5 players' average lag from 20 feet and more was to within7% of the start distance.  From this study, I determined that 10% was an acceptable lag. Outside that could be considered an ERROR.  Martin Laird had 8 opportunities of 20 feet+ in his final round.  Five were distance control busts (13% to 19%), but three were winners (0% - holed, 2% and the final 4%).  Overall, his distance control for the final round was an acceptable 10%.

If we assume two lag results for Martin on #18 from 87 feet of 7% and 10%.  He would be left with putts of 6' 1" or 8' 6" respectively.  What are the odds of 1 vs. 2 putts from those distances?  Back to the Tour:

YTD 2011 - % 1-Putt
Lag to %     Distance (ft.)     Laird       Tour Avg.
   7%                     6 ft.               54%           70%
  10%                    9 ft.               56%           46%
  
Good job, Johnny Miller!  Your odds of a playoff (3-putt) of 40% were spot-on.  Given a good or acceptable lag, according to my study, Martin would have had been in a playoff in the 46% to 44% range.  Fortunately for Martin, his lag was OUTSTANDING - 3' 7" or 4% - well done!

Finally, as I have said before, I recommend that the rest of us use the 10% Rule when evaluating our lag opportunities.  If nothing else, the math is so much easier!

Last time with the 70% Rule - Promise!

At the risk of beating this to death, allow me to crow momentarily over the success of my 70% Rule - a simple formula for what it takes to win on the PGA Tour (originally explained here). Since the beginning of tournament golf and "stats" the experts have been searching for basic summary answers for how to describe performance that matters the most - that which wins tournaments. The old standards have been displayed and discussed FOREVER:  Fairways Hit, GIR's and Putts/GIR.  While their shortcomings are many, GIR's totally trumps Fairways Hit, and Putts/GIR leaves out all the holes where there was no GIR - consider only the Winners and this ignores a third of the holes played.  No wonder they did not work.

Over the past two months I have demonstrated that my 70% Rule, when applied to the three summary stats above, clearly works.  It is not perfect because nothing simple, or summary in nature,  could ever accurately describe the complex, multi-dimensional game of golf.  That said, it is the best I have seen.  For the last time, here it is:

The 70% Rule

The overall average of the stats listed in the graphic above should be 70%.  I give each of the three equal weight despite the fact that they do not represent equally weighted parts of the game.  To the extent that one falls below the 70% mark, the other two need to exceed the 70% mark by enough to offset the deficit.

At the same time, ERRORS must be kept to three or less in a four round event.  The Errors tend to be mistakes that result in a stroke lost:

Long Game Errors:  Balls hit out of play (requiring unusual advancements to return to play), or  any penalty situation.

Short Game Errors:  Shots that miss the green AND where the total strokes needed to hole out from the original short game shot exceed three.  The "exceed 3" is a slight modification from my earlier definition.  Why? Because further study revealed that to penalize a player for simply missing the green, if they ultimately get down in three strokes is double jeopardy - the Scrambling stat already covers it by capturing it as a failed save.  An error needs to be a shot that results in a stroke lost NOT the failure to save.

Putting Errors

3 Putts or worse from 40 feet and closer. 

Unfortunately, the PGA Tour does not provide us with the ability to gauge the errors mentioned - or any errors, for that matter.  I believe that at some point they will recognize the importance of the downside of the game as every other sport has.  Imagine the analysis of baseball without  Fielding Errors and Strike Outs or football without Fumbles and Interceptions.  Mistakes have long been recognized as the difference in the outcome of the game as are the errors in golf.  For more on the importance of avoiding Errors in your game, see my article in the July 2010 issue of Golf Digest (p. 101) REDUCE ERRORS.  The article allows readers to measure the impact of their mistakes on their handicaps.

On that note, both Justin Rose and Tiger had two errors - both in the long game.  

Stricker Unveils New Winning Formula

Steve Stricker's one-stroke win in the Deutsche Bank Golf Championship was most impressive for his ability to avoid drama. No part of his long game really stood out except for the fact that he did not make a single error. Steve is long enough (294 yards - ranked 38th), and fairly accurate (10 Fairways Hit - tied for 15th). But what I believe Stricker did the best this week does not show up in the Tour golf stats: none of his 16 missed fairways resulted in errors. I consider an error to be any penalty situation (OB, Lost, Hazard, Unplayable lie, etc.), or any 'No Shot' position from which the golfer cannot proceed normally toward the hole. As good as these players are, a 'No Shot' tends to result in less than a half shot penalty, but is a penalty nonetheless.

TPC Boston does not rival the single-file feel of Liberty National, and for the most part provides room to drive the ball. At the same time, it has a number of hazards and every hole is bordered by dense forest waiting to punish errant drives. Ask Tiger, who had four errors from the tee - two penalty situations and two 'No Shot' results. Add to these uncharacteristic errors, Tiger put a 9-iron approach in the water on #16 (3rd round), and had a 3-putt from 33 feet on #17 in the final round. That just about accounts for Tiger's five shot deficit in this tournament. Any way you look at it, Steve Stricker's error-free driving performance was a key to his victory.

The rest of Stricker's long game was solid. He hit 12.5 greens per round - one less than our ShotByShot.com 2009 PGA Tour Winner's profile. His putting was good by traditional standards (3rd in Putts per GIR), but again not quite as good as our 2009 Winner's profile. What Stricker did very well was save strokes around the greens. Between chipping, pitching and sand shots, Steve averaged just over seven short game opportunities each round. Without a single error (a shot that misses the green - and yes, this does happen on Tour!), Steve holed out from off the green twice, and "Saved" 75% of his short game opportunities. Our Winner's profile saves 70% and the winner will toss in an error 4 of every 100 shot attempts.

Niblicks of Truth's New Formula for Winning:

Long Game - Keep the ball in play off the tee, avoid mistakes and hit 12+ GIR's.
Short Game - Avoid mistakes, and get 75% of opportunites up and down.
Putting - Limit 3-putts to one (Steve had one) and see short game above.

(Focus on this formula - which can be adjusted for different pay grades of golf proficiency - for improvement at any level. Avoiding errors is the key!)

Liberty National: Looked Like a Major

This new golf venue showed itself exceptionally well during the telecasts this weekend. Sadly, for the vast majority of the golfing public, the TV is as close as they will ever get to this ultra-exclusive, private club.

I am fortunate to have played Liberty National late last year, and can report that it is breathtaking. Once you catch your breath, however, and get down to working your way around the golf course, the design features grab your full attention. This golf course is hard!

The designers took advantage of just about every known defense against scoring. Once you are bitten, the obstacles seem to loom larger and more prominently with every hole. First, as the announcers noted, the course was built on a relatively small parcel of land so it is tight, but fairly long at 7,419 yards. (We played about 7,000 which was all we could handle and more.) The fairways are bordered by a combination of water, deep bunkers, long fescue and trees. The greens are well protected by bunkers, false fronts, sides and backs and fairly severe undulations.

Don't get me wrong. Liberty National is not an unfair golf course, but it is demanding, especially off the tees, and it punishes errors sternly. I estimate that the average 10 handicap would need at least six balls to finish a round, and would not leave feeling confident about the overall strength of their game - and that is if they play an appropriate set of tees. My group of grizzled veterans relished the challenge and thoroughly enjoyed the journey. Fortunately we had enough ammo and departed energized by the beauty and competitive experience with only minor bruises to our egos. That said, I was anxious to see how the pro's handled it and admit to taking some pleasure in what Liberty did to the best in the world.

Let's just compare the profile of the winner (Heath Slocum) to that of the winners of non-Major PGA Tournaments in 2009:

Score: Heath's -9 total is six shots higher than the -15.25 average of the 32 prior regular PGA Tour events. By comparison, the four major winners averaged -6.5. Personally, I find the more difficult tests to be much more interesting.

Driving Errors: Heath made three tee shot errors (2 were "No shot" results that required advancements to get the ball back in play and the third was a penalty). The prior winners have averaged approximately one such error in 4 rounds. Tiger, only 1 shot back, made an uncharacteristic six driving errors this week.

GIR's: Heath hit 11.5 greens which was good (tied for 6th). The field at Liberty National averaged an incredibly low 9.9 GIR's while the average of the previous winners is 13.5 GIR's.

Long Game Efficiency*: Heath needed 3+ long game strokes for every green hit in regulation. The previous winners average 2.4 long game strokes for each GIR.

*This refers to our patented method for measuring overall Long Game performance. For a better explanation, log on to www.shotbyshot.com.

As I said, the course is particularly demanding off the tee and punishes errant shots.

Here are two more Niblicks of Truth:
Last week, I wrote about Steve Marino's putting issues - especially in the 6 to 10 foot range. Steve hung near the lead this week until he shot 40 on the final 9 holes to fall into a tie for 15th. While I did not collect and analyze his data, I watched and believe that his putting frustrations finally got to him and affected the rest of his game.

Speaking of that critical 6 to 10 foot range, Tiger made only 5 of 14 (36%). His normal success in this range is 65%. His struggles were punctuated by a miss from 7 feet on the final hole to tie the lead - he really is human!

The PGA - Tiger will be fine, but I worry about Padraig Harrington

OK, so Tiger Woods just lost his first major golf tournament while in the lead after 3 rounds. It had to happen at some point but if it weren't for a very solid round by an unlikely candidate, Tiger was on track for #15. All of the usual subjects were playing by the script and had quietly disappeared by the 9th hole. Only Y.E. Yang was happy to hang around the lead with Tiger. He gave golf's #1 player a bit of his own medicine when he chipped in for eagle on #14 and Tiger was forced to hole an 8 foot, birdie putt just to stay one behind - big sigh of relief around my TV.

After Yang played a poor pitch to the par-5, 15th and Tiger failed to make a 12 foot birdie putt (again!), I submit that Mr. Yang came very close to the "C" word and to giving the tournament away. Not once, but twice.

1st: On the difficult 16th, he made the unthinkable mistake by missing his approach to the right of the flag tucked on the right side of the green, precariously close to the hazard. The gods shined on Y.A. as the ball barely caught the fringe and stuck. Another two feet to the right and his ball most certainly would have bounced into the hazard - Tiger wins!

2nd: On #17, with a 2-putt for par, albeit from about 40 feet, Yang would almost certainly have gained a 2 stroke lead. But he left his lag putt 8 feet short and missed - bogey. Again, he was saved because Tiger's aggressive approach bounced just over the green and into a very difficult lie resulting in his bogey.

So what happened to Tiger? A combination of three things:

1. He simply had "one of those days" on the greens. After he mis-read the 6-foot birdie putt on #1 and burned the edge on #2 from 14 feet for birdie - both putts that he (and the rest of us) expect him to make - I believe he began to doubt his reads. On the back 9 alone, I calculate that Tiger missed six of seven putts inside 14 feet. Each one was either a very minor mis-read or hit a bit too hard or soft, or a combination thereof.

2. Hats off to Nick Faldo who, at the start of the telecast, predicted that the strong, gusting crosswinds would give Tiger difficulty. And they did. They were certainly the primary cause of the missed greens on 17 and 18. Under the circumstances, Tiger was forced to be aggressive and and the gusting winds made it almost impossible to be as precise as he needed to be. Again, Tiger's uncertainty on the tee at the difficult, par-3 8th hole led to another missed green and bogey. And this is just to list the obvious ones.

3. Y. A. Yang handled the conditions and the pressure extremely well.

Aquaphobia! I bet Padraig Harrington will be nervous taking a shower.
Astonishingly, for the second week in a row Padraig literally drowned his chances of a win. His meltdown that resulted in an eight on the par-3 8th hole on Sunday was difficult to watch. To make matters worse, the network chose to splice in the prior week's mistake.

Here is a niblick of perspective: the average golfer on the PGA Tour will miss the green from within 50 yards of the flag approximately six percent of the time - 6 of every 100 opportunities. This ShotByShot.com stat includes all shots and all degrees of difficulty. Granted, Padraig was faced with two very difficult opportunities, but not only are missed greens infrequent for a PGA Tour player, a miss that results in a penalty is so rare that I don't even track it.

It is often said that the great ones must have short memories. But these two dramatic wounds have to leave deep scars for Padraig. I will be interested to see how he deals with it, and as a fan, I am rooting for him to prevail.