I have been noticing this for some time and finally decided it worth mentioning. As you know, I have been tracking the Winner's on the PGA Tour for quite some time and developed what I believe to be a credible profile. Three key barometers stand out as displayed in the graph above. They are all related and inter-twined but emerge week after week. Simply stated, the winner generally displays a pure mathematical average of 70% across these three indicators. To the extent that one falls short, the others tend to exceed the 70% mark by enough to bring the overall average to at least 70%.
I am not even talking about the weighted average - just the pure average as if each of these barometers carried exactly the same weight. It works because they are so closely related. If the GIR% were to fall below 70%, the Short game and Short putts (4-10 feet) automatically increase in number and importance. Obviously, the inverse is also true. As the number of GIR's goes up so does the number and importance of Short game shots and Short putts decrease. It is a See-Saw of sorts with Greens (the long game) on one side and everything else on the other.
There is also the unseen, ugly under-belly - ERRORS. Winners make them BUT very, very few. As my readers know, I view an error to be:
Tee shot (Drive) - Hit out of play or into a penalty situation. Generally no more than 1 in 4 rounds and the vast majority are of the "No Shot" variety.
Short Game - A shot that misses the green. Again, no more than 1 in 4 rounds and in the vast majority of these, Winners recover and get down in 3 total shots.
Putting - A 3-putt or worse from 40 feet and in - no more than 1 per event.
As the graph above shows, Jason Bohn did everything well and with only one Error. Jason missed the green with a Chip/Pitch but did get down in 3. His putting was not just exceptional in the 4-10 foot range, his luck extended out to the 16-20 footer where he made 3 of 7 (43%), almost twice our Winners (26%). He carded a 3-putt but from 70 feet - no mistake there.
Finally for perspective, the average 10 handicap would be playing by a 40% Rule. More importantly, he would be desparately trying to keep the Error rate to 10% or less. Put another way, to play to his 10 handicap, usually a Winner, he would not only have to equal the 40% mark on the positive stats (above) while limiting his errors to 3 or less per round. See if you can do it and, oh by the way, consider the Putting Error to be a 3-Putt or worse from 30 feet and in.
There is also the unseen, ugly under-belly - ERRORS. Winners make them BUT very, very few. As my readers know, I view an error to be:
Tee shot (Drive) - Hit out of play or into a penalty situation. Generally no more than 1 in 4 rounds and the vast majority are of the "No Shot" variety.
Short Game - A shot that misses the green. Again, no more than 1 in 4 rounds and in the vast majority of these, Winners recover and get down in 3 total shots.
Putting - A 3-putt or worse from 40 feet and in - no more than 1 per event.
As the graph above shows, Jason Bohn did everything well and with only one Error. Jason missed the green with a Chip/Pitch but did get down in 3. His putting was not just exceptional in the 4-10 foot range, his luck extended out to the 16-20 footer where he made 3 of 7 (43%), almost twice our Winners (26%). He carded a 3-putt but from 70 feet - no mistake there.
Finally for perspective, the average 10 handicap would be playing by a 40% Rule. More importantly, he would be desparately trying to keep the Error rate to 10% or less. Put another way, to play to his 10 handicap, usually a Winner, he would not only have to equal the 40% mark on the positive stats (above) while limiting his errors to 3 or less per round. See if you can do it and, oh by the way, consider the Putting Error to be a 3-Putt or worse from 30 feet and in.
Good article Peter, especially like the insight for the amateur golfer.
ReplyDeleteI'll be in touch shortly re: PGA stuff
David,
ReplyDeleteThanks very much. FYI, I have been engaged by the RCGA to include SBS for every player in their upcoming Jr. Champ. and produce our unique player ranking analysis. Very exciting!
Peter