Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Good Show, Young Mr. Spieth!


As I was enjoying the Sunday coverage of the Byron Nelson Championship, my bride came in to join me and the first words out of her mouth were: "My lord, that player looks like he is about 16 years old!"  And thank goodness that Jordan Spieth was able to avoid the truant office and participate, as he was the life and excitement of an otherwise bland event. 

I suppose one could consider the final few holes interesting.  I found them painful.  Jason Day not only tried to lose on the 18th hole but worse tried to spoil my 70% Rule for Winners on the PGA Tour (read more here). His crime was less about the sub-70% levels of his "Key Winner's Stats,"  and much more about the unbelievable number of ERRORS (7) that he committed and survived.  This anomaly  is likely attributable to the strength, or lack thereof, of the field.  Accordingly, I will say no more about the errors.

Instead, I was very impressed by the game and the obvious poise and self confidence of young Jordan Spieth.  He handled the glaring spotlight and the pressure like a winner.  I was so impressed that I decided to capture his ShotByShot data from ShotLink and run his analysis against our Winner's profile as well as that of Jason Day.  As you can see from the Key stats above, Jordan was very close.  Here's where the data tells me he needs work in order to attain his first win:

1.  Putting - His distance control was excellent, but Jordan can improve his % 1-Putts in the 4 to 10 foot range.  (Tour Winners - 69% vs. Jordan - 57%.)
2.  Short Game: Chip/Pitch Shots - Unbelievable for a 16 year old under that kind of pressure, but the Tour Winners make almost no mistakes and hit the ball even closer.  (Average Putting Distances:  Tour Winners - 5.8 ft. vs. Jordan - 7.5 ft.)  Incidentally, a sure way to improve short putting is to hit it closer on average.

Finally Jordan, keep up the great play, but don't forget to enjoy the rest of high school and especially college.  The PGA Tour will be waiting and I will look forward to recording your stats as one of its very popular winners.
 

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Just how valuable are "Fairways Hit?"

I have often written about how I believe that the age-old, stat "Fairways Hit" is the worst of all of the traditional barometers.  Recently, I recommended instead that players focus more on avoiding ERRORS off the tee.  At the risk of seeming to contradict myself, I feel the need to set the record straight.  My disdain is directed more at the one-dimensional nature of this stat than at the relative importance of having an opportunity to hit a green from the fairway.  More specifically, this stat basically asks for a T/F answer to a multiple-choice question, ignoring the important differences between the relative severity of the "Misses".  It is this myopic view that renders this out-dated test of driving accuracy and effectiveness of limited value.
Every serious golfer recognizes the importance of hitting Greens in Regulation (GIR's).  This is one of the "old stats" that really does matter!  It reflects two positives:  First, the effectiveness of the player's long game; and second, a birdie opportunity.  On the flip side, each missed green speaks poorly of the long game efforts and more often than not results in a bogey or worse.  The players on the PGA Tour average 11.7 GIR's each round (or they would not be there) and I recently calculated that the difference between hitting and missing the GIR, at that level, was worth approximately .8 strokes.

With that in mind, I decided to research the relative importance of the result of the drive and its affect on the golfer's chances of attaining that desirable GIR.  I dug into my database (now 103,000+ rounds) to see exactly how important the "Fairway" has been.  I looked across a wide range of handicap levels at Driving holes (par 4 & 5 holes) where the result was a GIR.  I learned two somewhat surprising facts:

     1.  The percentage breakdowns were markedly consistent across all of the handicap ranges - so close that there was no need to display an array of handicaps.
     2.  The "Fairway" was much more important than I had assumed - over three times as important as even a "Good lie/position" in the rough (see the graph above).

Your first question will no doubt echo mine:  "How could a player with "No shot" (a position so poor that it requires an advancement to return to normal play) hit the GIR?  It took some thought but the answer:  Easy - errant drive on a par 5 into a No shot position, effective advancement shot to return the ball to play, followed by a miraculous recovery shot that hits the green.

Check how your fairways match up to your GIR's over the next several rounds.  I know that this study will make me a bit more focused on keeping it in the short grass.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. McIlroy

 
With apologies to Robert Louis... and Charles... the Quail Hollow Championship really was the Tale of Two golfers.  I was rooting for my new favorite golfer (Phil) but could not avoid getting caught up in Rory's great charge.  His -10 course record on Sunday was magical and fun to watch.  I naturally thought it would be interesting to see exactly what he did differently in the last two rounds to account for the 16 stroke difference from the first two. 

First, let's look at his all-important ERRORS:
                         1-2          3-4
Driving:             3             0
Short Game:      3             0
Putting:              3             1 (Began the 3rd round with a 3-putt from 27 feet)
Total:                 9             1
Two points:
1.  The difference of 8 Errors, could be viewed as half of the 16 stroke margin.
2.  Rory McIlroy will be the first Winner I have seen to overcome 10 Errors.

Now, the good things:

Long Game Efficiency Index*:  Rounds 1-2 = 2.78  vs.  3-4 = 1.96.  While not a full 4 rounds, the latter is the first I have seen that betters my hypothetical "Perfect" round of 2.00.   Perfect would be 36 long strokes and all 18 greens hit in regulation (36/18 = 2.00).  Rory needed only 30.5 long strokes to achieve 15.5 GIR's.  How?  He took full advantage of the two reachable par 4's and four par 5's. - 12 opportunities!  Rory was on, or close (50 yards), to 11 of these 12 reachable greens - shaving 11 long game strokes or 5.5 per round.  Bottom line, I calculate that he saved 9 of the 16 stroke difference with his long game accuracy and efficiency.

*This is our patent pending method of measuring the overall efficiency of a player's long game. For a better explanation, log onto http://www.shotbyshot.com/. 

Putting
For those of us that watched, it will come as no surprise that the vast majority of the other seven strokes were the result of a hot putter.  With only the one 3-putt, Rory made all the short ones that he should AND holed six putts from outside 20 feet, capped off by the 43 foot birdie on the final hole.