Tuesday, June 12, 2012

My Preferred Tour Short Game Stat

(Tour Averages in RED are educated estimates as these specific numbers are not available)

Dustin Johnson did more than a few things right to squeak out a 1-stroke victory at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  Not the least of which was his fortuitous birdie - birdie - par finish while other notable contenders stumbled home.

Dustin's long game was solid.  He hit 12.5 GIR's with only two long game errors.  When he missed the GIR, his Scrambling percentage was excellent at 77%.  While I view this to be a very important stat, I see it as a scoring stat much more than the short game measure that I believe it was intended to be long ago.  Why?  It concerns only instances when the GIR was not achieved.  This omits a significant number of short game opportunities and includes holes that don't involve a short game shot.  The following situations are not considered in this stat:
  1. Short game shots to save birdie on par 5 holes.  50 years ago, it was the exception for players to hit on or around par 5 holes in two.  Today, it is more the rule.  The Tour average for Going for Par 5 holes in two is 50%.  Longer players, like Dustin Johnson, go for it 65% or more.
  2. Short game shots to save birdie on short par 4 holes.  Today, most courses have one of these potentially reachable par 4's.
  3. Missed GIR's due to long game errors which do not involve short game shots. 
To support my point, here is a breakdown of Dustin's 25 short game shots at TPC Southwind:
  1. To save birdie:  6 (not included in Scrambling)
  2. To save par:  18 (included in the Scrambling)
  3. To save bogey: 1 (not included in Scrambling)
I find that Proximity to Hole (ARG) affords a much more reliable picture of the short game.  Definition:  The average distance to the hole (in feet) after hitting the ball onto the putting surface from around the green.  (Note:  'Around the green' indicates the player is withing 30 yards of the edge of the green.)

I have two minor issues with this stat:
  1. It does not include shots that miss the green.  These ERRORS HAPPEN (see chart above), and they impact scoring but are totally lost in the Tour's stats.
  2. 30 yards from the edge of the green can be as much as 60 - 70 yards from the hole.  I would prefer the distance range be measured from the hole.
That said, it still provides valuable perspective.  Dustin found the putting surface with 24 of his 25 attempts and his average putting distance was a precious 2' 9" closer than the average of the field.  The average 1-Putt percentages from these distances are significant - just under 5 strokes on Dustin's 24 opportunities:
  • Dustin - 4' 7" (call it 5 feet) = 73%
  • Field   - 7' 4" (call it 7 feet) = 53%
Bottom line, here is why I prefer this short game stat.  First, it includes most, if not all, of the players actual short game opportunities.  Second, it measures pure short game skill, and is not influenced by the player's putting as "Saves" are.  

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Which course has the most difficult greens?


Jack's Memorial looked like a mini-Major with a winning score of only -9.  A more typical winning score on Tour is -12 to -18.   I have not played Muirfield Village (...never get invited anywhere!) but I have walked/run the course (long story).  In my opinion, it is a very hard golf course - streams meander thru and around almost every hole; the woods loom large, deep and dark; and the green complexes are severe.  Remember when Jack added special rakes that created deep furrows in the sand traps?  How hard is it?  The Course rating/Slope system does a fairly good job of displaying the relative difficulty and Muirfield "Memorial" tees are rated 76.9/153, which is up there - 4.9 strokes above the 72 par for the scratch golfer.  

Watching the event, I wondered "OK, I get the difficulty of the course but what about the greens alone?  There must be a way to judge the most difficult greens on Tour."  As my readers know, I am a big fan of the Tour's new Strokes Gained Putting stat.  I am certain that the answer lies in this data but is not readily available to "outsiders" because the raw data is "normalized" each week so that all we see is how players relate to the average of the entire field for that event.  The average "Strokes Lost" to the Tour's performance model each week would clearly reveal the relative difficulty of the greens at each venue.  Until I can get this data, is there another way?

How about the relative frequency of 3-putts for the field?  For this, I looked at an old, traditional Tour stat - 3-Putt Avoidance:  The percent of time 3 or more putts were taken for a hole (total 3 and 4-putts divided by the total holes played).  I looked at all 2012 Tour events (thru Memorial) and found the following:
  • The average of all 22 events:  3.31 (2.38 3-Putts per 72 holes played)
  • Easiest greens:  Doral Blue Monster @ 1.95 (1.40 3-Putts per 72 holes played). 
  • Most difficult:  Kapalua Plantation @ 5.04 (3.62 3-Putts per 72 holes played)
Other difficult greens:
  • Augusta National:  4.88 (3.51 3-Putts per 72 holes)
  • Quail Hollow:  4.33
  • TPC Sawgrass:  4.32
Other easy greens:
  • Harbor Town:  2.04 (1.46 3-Putts per 72 holes)
  • Waialea CC:  2.19
To add some perspective on 3-Putt performance, the graph above compares the average # of 3-Putts per round for the PGA Tour Winners (2012) and Tour average to an array of handicap levels.