Publicity for ShotByShot.com and me!

About a month ago, I received a phone call from Josh Sens, a writer for GOLF Magazine.   Josh was researching an article on the relatively new trend of PGA Tour players adding stat experts to their support teams.  

Josh had done his homework.  He had spoken to Zach Johnson and gotten my name and number from Dr. Morris Pickens (Zach's Sports Psychologist) - Thanks Mo!  Our discussion was a lively one that lasted approximately an hour with a few follow up calls and questions about points that I had raised.

Josh's article was published on GOLF.com on Monday, July 8.  I think he did a great job and included quite a few of my quotes and was kind enough to plug my website.  By far my favorite quote is from Zach, talking about my work:  "He's able to find holes in the stats and magnify other stats by clearing out the junk,"  Johnson says.  "He chews on it, digests it and then spits out something a lot more practical than 'You've got to hit more fairways.'"

Way to go Zach!  Very high praise and I could not have said it better myself.

I hope you enjoy the article:  GOLF.com - It All Adds Up

What makes a great putter?

Brandt Snedeker ranked #1 in Strokes Gained Putting for the 2012 PGA Tour year.  Quite an accomplishment to be considered the best of the best.  I decided to see if I could find the key to his putting prowess - was there something that clearly separated Brandt from the rest?  My conclusion:  Two things stand out.
     1.  Consistency
     2.  Distance control

Consistency
In 18 events covered by ShotLink, Brandt recorded a negative Strokes Gained total in only five (28%).  While negative, these five poor putting events were not horrible.  The average of the five was only -.325 (only giving up .325 shots per round to the field) and his worst was only -.64.  

Brandt's other 13 events were positive SG numbers and for the year Brandt averaged .860 strokes gained on the field.  This profile is the picture of putting consistency.

But what exactly does he do to achieve this high level of consistent performance?  The answer does not exactly leap out of the Tour stats.  Speaking of the ..., there are NINE putting stat categories and 110 individual putting stats.  Each is expressed in a number or percentage with a ranking for perspective.  Further, there is a high degree of compaction which causes the rankings to sometimes be misleading.  That said, rankings in the TOP-20 on Tour are good in ANY stat.  The Tour average tends to be around 75.

Brandt's ranking for the year in a few stats stood out and lead me to my conclusion:

• 1 Putts 10-15 feet - rank 4 (this range consistently shows up in the Winners on Tour)
• 1-Putts > 25 feet - rank 8
• Putts made over 10 feet - rank 3
• Putts made over 20 feet - rank 4  

I believe that Brandt's high level of success in the four stats mentioned above comes from a great confidence in his distance control and the relative absence of fear about the length of the next putt.

Distance control
In 2000 and 2001, when Tiger was the dominant player on tour, I did a study of his distance control as it related to the other top players at the time.  I found that they all tended to average 7% of their start distance (40 foot start ==> inside 3 feet = 7%).  I also found that Tiger set himself apart by getting a higher percentage of his long distance lag putts to or past the hole.

ShotLink makes this exercise quite a bit easier and precise.  A study of Brand Snedeker's 2012 putts of 25 feet and greater revealed a similar result:

• His overall average lag distance - 6.5%
• 2-Putts - 5.8%
• 3-Putts - 14.2%

In both instances above (2 and 3 Putts), Brandt got 63% of these long putts to or past the hole.  I can't help but think of the annoying refrain:  Never up, never in!  Obviously, Brandt has taken it to heart.

Finally, we amateurs should take heed and work on distance control.  I like to focus on 10% of the start distance as my goal and highly recommend it.  First, we don't do this for a living and second, the math is much easier.

Muirfield brings out the worst in most - not Matt Kuchar

I have said for years that the frequency and severity of our mistakes in golf have a far greater influence on our score and handicap level than do our good shots.  Jack's event this weekend proved to be a great example of my point.  The table below displays the errors (mistakes) made by Matt Kuchar in his four rounds on Muirfield Village as compared to the average of the field.  For perspective, I added the average number of errors made by the PGA Tour in 2012 for an equivalent four rounds.

Muirfield Village is, without question, one of the most difficult courses visited by the Tour.  It is ranked the 3rd most difficult this year, based upon score over par, just behind PGA National - Champion (#2) and Augusta National (#1).  While I have yet to be invited to play Muirfield, I did walk (actually run) the course some years ago to record Shot By Shot data for Jack and his three pro am partners.  Not quite as much fun as playing but I did not lose a single ball.  

What did I learn?

• Playing is more difficult than walking.  The three amateurs, not bad golfers, picked up almost as often as they finished holes.
• Muirfield has lots of water that comes into play around the greens.  (Note the approach shot penalties are more than 2x the 2012 Tour average.)
• The greens and green complexes are very severe and present difficult short game shots. 

 In my study of the event this week, I was surprised to see that aside from the difficulty of the approach shots to the greens, it was the greens and their surroundings, especially the bunkers, that presented the greatest relative difficulty.  (Note the average number of short game errors were more than 50% higher than the 2012 Tour averages.) The Muirfield field made an error from the greenside sand 19.5% of the time - one in every five attempts.  This compares to 12%, or one in every nine attempts in all of 2012.

Matt Kuchar obviously had his sand game ready for Muirfield's test.  In seven attempts, his average putting distance was 6.7 feet (1.3 ft. closer than the field).  And he saved all seven (100% vs. 49% for the field), obviously with ZERO errors.  Well done, Matt!

How do your errors match up?  

How Important are Fairways?

One of my college coaches asked my help to provide some perspective for his players - I love when my clients do that - it's a compliment!

Thanks to my genius programmer, I was able to run a query on the last two years of PGA Tour ShotLink data - 28,272 rounds to be exact - a pretty solid sample.  I looked to see how players score from the fairway vs. rough as well as their relative accuracy from various distances from each.  To be clear, the "rough" locations that I reviewed did not include the intermediate rough, fairway bunkers or any of the many "Other" results.

Score

The cost or scoring difference between hitting the fairway vs. rough is:  .315 strokes

• Results from the fairway = -.156 (under par)
• Results from the rough = +.159 (over par)

This means that a golfer who misses half the fairways (7) in a given round loses over 2 shots to par - not counting any Penalty or No shot results driving results that we consider to be errors.

Accuracy

The affect on accuracy is even more dramatic than that on score.  Bottom line, in order to achieve the same accuracy from the rough as the tour enjoys from the fairway at 151 to 175 yards, the players must move as much as 75 yards closer to the target.    

Accuracy from 151 to 175 yards:  

• Hit Green from Fairway: 71%; Hit Green from Rough: 49%
• Average Proximity to Hole from Fairway: 28 feet; from Rough: 45 feet

To attain the same the fairway accuracy cited above from the rough, we need to get to the 76 to 100 yard range:

• Hit Green from Rough: 71%
• Average Proximity to Hole: 27 feet

Mid point to mid point of these ranges is 75 yards.

One might ask, how does this relate to amateur golfers.  I do not have that data, but my slightly educated guess is NOT SO MUCH.  Why?  Because amateurs do not have anywhere near the accuracy from any position and certainly not from the greater distances.  Thus, it can only fall off so much when faced with shots from the rough.

iPhone App Now Available!

Finally, the App was approved by Apple yesterday morning 5/3/13 and is available as a FREE download from the App Store.  Follow this link:  Download App

Some of the features that I believe make it appealing:

• Large buttons and numeric keypad makes data entry easy, especially while walking.  I am able to use it on the course WITHOUT my reading glasses.
• No data connection is required while entering data - works perfectly in "offline" mode.
• We added Front nine and Back nine review screens to help ensure data accuracy.
• Missing data is highlighted, with easy navigation to fix them.
• "Jump to Hole" feature makes navigation simple.
• Bonus stat summary, such as Driving - Fairways and Errors as well as Short game Saves vs. Errors.  Instant feedback on your round.
• Courses - Choose from your entire course list, or add a new course on the fly.

It has been a long time coming but I am excited to finally have a product of which I am very proud.  I used it every round during my recent 6-round trip (Field tests).  It was quick and easy - not at all a distraction.  Best of all, when I finished my round I had checked and entered it by the time I had changed my shoes.

I will be very interest in your feedback. 

What's so hard about Harbour Town?

I spent much of this weekend camped out in front of my TV multi-tasking - watching the golf (RBC Heritage Classic), while happily collecting data on my players.  It is a special event because it is a special course.  Short by today's standards at 7,101 yards (Par 71), and tight by any standards.  The greens are the smallest on tour and well protected by the thin fairways, towering pine trees, water and SAND.

Accordingly, it plays like a mini-major and tends to bring the very best players to the top.  Tom Watson and Hale Irwin are multiple winners and Davis Love, III has won FIVE times.  The King won the first in 1969 taking home $20,000.  I found it interesting that only 44 years later Graeme McDowell multiplied Arnie's cash by just over 50 times to earn $1,044,000.  My Dad said I should focus on golf NOT football - what did he know?

While the telecast was focused on the leaders, I noticed some uncharacteristic short game errors by some players not quite on camera.  When the event was over, I looked closer and noticed that the frequency of errors from the sand at Harbour Town was unusually high.  I compared the  Tour average YTD, just prior to Harbour Town, to the  average for the field in this event.  The errors from the sand were UP by 55%!  The chart above displays the percentage of Sand shots hit to within 8 feet (a good shot by ShotByShot.com standards) as well as the % Errors (shots that miss the green).  Note, the Harbour Town field would no doubt be proud to fall in the 6 to 9 handicap group based upon the frequency of their faux pas in the sand.   

Why so many mistakes?  My somewhat educated guess is that it was due to the small greens and the severe, collection areas adjacent to most of the greens.  First, given the small greens, the normal miss in the sand tends to be further into the sand - leaving more sand to cover and less green.  Second, the poor (or safe) sand shot that would come to rest on a larger green tends to run off into the collection areas. 

One might say:  "It was the wind on Sunday!"  My thought exactly, so I compared the first 3 rounds to the wind-blown 4th - NOT so.  In fact, the sand errors in the 4th round dropped slightly to only 15% (3 to 5 Handicap).

So, whatever your handicap, when you plan to tee it up at Harbour Town, bring your A sand game.    

Is Tiger Back? His Putting certainly is!

As an admitted statistical stalker of Tiger, I have good perspective on the parts of his game that separate him from the rest and punctuate his wins.  Until his two most recent wins, the dominant facet of his game has not been his putting.  An outrageous statement?  Let me explain:

It has been his Long Game Efficiency!  Tiger consistently hit more greens in regulation in fewer long game strokes than anyone in golf.  When I discovered this 2000 and 2001, I created my patented Long Game Efficiency Index to quantify his prowess.  The index also works well for amateurs, and is the foundation of the Long Game analysis contained in ShotByShot.com and fully explained in: A Better Way to Track Long Game Improvement.

This is not to in any way diminish Tiger's putting.  His has been consistently ranked near the top since Strokes Gained Putting has been used to analyze putting by the PGA Tour.  Further, we have all witnessed over and over that Tiger is one of the best clutch putters of all time.  So what is my point?

In my analysis of the Winners on the PGA Tour, putting is more often than not the difference maker and the Winners often record 'Strokes Gained' totals above 2.00 and even 3.00 (meaning that they have "gained" 2+ or 3+ strokes on the field PER ROUND.  Not so with Tiger.

Since 2004, Tiger has recorded 29 wins in which Shotlink captured his putting and Strokes Gained numbers were published.  Here are the Strokes Gained putting highlights of his prior 28 Wins:

• 2013 Bay Hill was the first event with a SG total above 2.00 (an impressive 2.798)
• Tiger's prior high was 1.981 @ 2013 Honda - just 2 weeks ago.
• The average of his 28 prior wins was 1.087 vs. 1.398 and 1.360 for 2012 and 2011 winners respectively.
• Tiger posted a win at the 07 WGC Cadillac Champ. with a -.793 SG Total.  This means that he won despite giving back over 3 strokes to the field in four rounds.  I have seen this once before BUT in a much reduced field.  It was Rory McIlroy's -.21 in the BMW Championship semi-finals of the FEDEX Cup.  

Perhaps Tiger simply putts as well as needed when he feels a win coming.  He needed to putt well this week because he made FIVE driving errors (1-Penalty, 4-No Shots) and only hit 11.5 GIR's.  Not his, or ANYONE's typical winning numbers.

 

Finally, it should be noted that two of his best statistical putting performances EVER came in very close succession in his most recent two wins.  If Tiger has found something and can hold onto it for a couple of weeks, I make him a clear favorite at the Masters.  Ignore this if you are part of my Master's Weekend Pool!      

153rd Event a Charm for Kevin Streelman

It is a very nice story to see Kevin Streelman win after six years and 152 prior tries.  Further, he did not back into it but instead finished the event in grand style, all the while knowing exactly what he needed to do to beat the score posted before he even teed off.  

As I like to do, I collected and analyzed his Shot By Shot data and was slightly taken back by the fact that he failed to reach either of my Winner's benchmarks.  Something I said or wrote, Kevin?  Why would you go out of your way to make me look bad?  Perhaps he has not read my blog and was simply unaware of what it takes to win on the PGA Tour?  If so, no wonder it took him six years.....

Could there be another reason why my work did not measure up this week?  What if the course were just that much more difficult, thus pulling the "bars" down?  This could be, and having played the course, I can attest to the tight, tree-lined fairways, ample water hazards and severe greens.  But how to quantify the difficulty relative to the other nine courses played on Tour this year?  Let me count the ways:

1.  USGA Course Rating:  [Forget Slope rating as it is geared to the bogey golfer.]  The Copperhead's back tees rank 2nd most difficult @ 76.8 behind Torrey Pines @ 78.2.  The average of all ten courses hosting events this season is 75.7  The easiest: PGA West @ 74 - no wonder Brian Gay won at -25.  OK, I accept this as a fairly good measure.  However, having served on a local golf course rating committee, in order to completely understand the rating process, I learned that there can be regional discrepancies in outcome.

2.  Average Score for the Field:  This number reflects the course's inherent difficulty as well as the playing conditions during the week of the tournament.  Bingo!  The Copperhead field recorded the highest average score @ 72.2.  Further, the weather conditions were not bad.  The Plantation course at Kapalua was 2nd @ 72.1 (High winds caused the 1st round to be cancelled and dramatically influenced play throughout.)   The average for all ten courses was 70.8 and the easiest, again, PGA West @ 68.8.

OK, let's agree that the Copperhead course is and was playing hard enough to lower the proven statistical benchmarks for PGA Tour Winners - WHEW!

Oh, one more thing that Kevin Streelman did to insure his victory - not a single Driving ERROR on a course where these errors were very easy to come by.  No wonder Jim Furyk calls Copperhead "...his favorite course in the Florida swing."  It's driving difficulty not only levels the playing field, it tilts it in his favor.

How Good Was Tiger's Putting at Trump Doral?

The announcers and analysts raved about Tiger's putting this week, and rightly so.  Over the last few years I have noticed that the winners on the PGA Tour tend to separate themselves in the ranges between 10 and 20 feet.  Certainly 4 - 10 foot putts are important but all the contenders putt well inside 10 feet or they would not be there.  It is consistently making the longer 1-putts that earmarks the winners.

Tiger exemplified this trend in his win at Trump Doral this week.  The graph above displays Tiger this week, my 2012 Winner's profile and a large sample of Tiger's rounds - mostly wins - that I have collected over the past several years (Tiger Past).

I find three things of particular note about Tiger's putting:
1.  Tiger made 6 of 11 putts, or 55%, in the 16 - 20 foot range this week.  Try this at home!  Here are some comparative number for perspective on just how good this was:

• 2012 Winners:  made 23% (or less than 3 of 11);
• PGA Tour Average for 2013:  made 17% (or less than 2 of 11); 
• 15-19 Handicap:  makes 6% (or less than 1 of 11).  This group will actually 3-Putt from this range almost TWICE as often as 1-Putt.

2.  What is going on in the 11 - 15 foot range, Tiger?  At just 3 of 13 (23%), Tiger is quite a bit below the 2012 Winners, and it seems to be a pattern.  More comparative data:

• PGA Tour Average for 2013:  30%
• Event average:  31%
• 15-19 Handicap:  11%
• @ 23% Tiger is about a 0 handicap.

3.  Tiger 1-Putted 61% of the 71 holes where he had a putting opportunity (One "off shore" chip in).  This is exceptional:

• 2012 Winners:  46%
• PGA Tour Average for 2013:   39%
• Event average:  44% (remember, a reduced field of Top players)
• 15-19 Handicap:  21%  

Congratulations Tiger!  Nice to see you smile - it's good for the game.

Good players don't make mistakes in the short game! Or do they?

When I started my business (a long, long time ago), I had the great fortune of working with the Golf Digest Schools and the top instructors in the world that ran them.  I was struggling with exactly how to define the short game for my subscribers (what distances from the hole?) and how to handle ERRORS (shots that miss the green).  Several of these icons of the instruction world took an interest in the new approach that I was taking with golf statistics and were incredibly helpful.  In particular:  Chuck Cook, Jack Lumpkin and Hank Johnson.  

On the latter question (ERRORS) the comment was made:  "Good players don't make errors in the short game." To this day, if one works with PGA Tour players and relies solely on their Tour stats for information, this would seem to be true.  But I have been tracking Tour performance for years and know that even the winners on the PGA Tour make errors in the short game.  

Recently, Pat, my genius programmer dug into the ShotLink data to see exactly HOW GOOD THESE GUYS ARE around the greens (within 50 yards of the hole).  Pat uncovered the following percent ERRORS thru the first five PGA Tour events this season:

Chip/Pitch errors:   6%;  Avg. cost:  .68 strokes

Sand errors:            9%;  Avg. cost:  .66 strokes

One might ask:  Why is the Chip/Pitch cost slightly higher?  Isn't this counter-intuitive?  It is BUT, when players hit the green with their Chip/Pitch shots, their average score is lower than when they hit the green from the sand.  Thus a mistake has a higher cost.

The sand game is a challenge, especially for the club golfer.  Note that the 10 handicap golfer in the Greenside Sand Performance chart above is just as likely to make an error as they are to get it up and down.  My theory is that for these golfers, sand shots customarily only occur 1 or 2 times per round.  As such, the skill is seldom practiced and generally misunderstood.  Further, most public courses, and many private facilities, do not have practice bunkers.  I recommend that instructors/coaches check out their players' sand games.  If necessary, go out on the course for this purpose.  First, verify that they have the right club for the type of sand and shots required for their course.  Next, do they have the basic OUT shot that can reliably get them on the green.  Only after these basics are covered should the array of other sand shots be addressed.

Finally, I was surprised that the Tour error rate for sand shots was as high as 9%.  My theory as to why is that they really are that good and try to get it close from everywhere.  Or could it be that because the Tour stats don't include them, they forget that their errors ever happen?

Putting IS for Dough!

The Snedeker - Hahn final round pairing at Pebble was refreshing as Jim Nantz remarked: "...they smiled their entire way around the course."  One can only hope that their example sets a new trend on Tour.  As likeable as Brandt Snedeker is, James Hahn gives him an honest run...  His now famous dance on the 16th green at Scottsdale was not only artfully done but seemed genuinely spontaneous and joyous.  I actually watched his post, 3rd round interview online this week - I never do that.  Again, he is refreshingly happy to be there.  I learned that his nick name is "The Asian Brad Pitt."  Good to know!  James, you just may be my new favorite player on Tour.

Given that it was your first final-round share of the lead James, you made a very good showing.  Too bad you ran into a putting buzz saw.  The relatively small, Pebble greens were designed to be one of the defenses of this relatively short course.  That is short by today's standards @ 6,900+, par 72.  The greens were firm and fast and statistically difficult for all but Brandt, who blew the field away with 3.185 Strokes Gained on the greens in his final round.  Brandt did this with a 3-Putt from only 22 feet on the 9th hole.  That green alone set him back just over a full stroke.  Were it not for this blemish, Mr. Snedeker would have been in the rare air of 4+ Strokes Gained on the field.  Phil Mickelson did this to Tiger last year posting 4.78 Strokes Gained in his final-round to Tiger's -5.288 (Strokes Lost).  For more on this and an explanation of Strokes Gained Putting see:  (How-good-is-strokes-gained-putting?)

Let's put these Strokes Gained numbers into perspective:

1.  Brandt Snedeker was the #1 putter on Tour in 2012.  He averaged .86 Strokes Gained on the field over the entire year - IMPRESSIVE!  No wonder he won the FedX Cup!

2.  The 25 Winners that I studied in 2012 averaged 1.40 Strokes Gained per round.  Typically, three of their four rounds were gaining 1 to 3 strokes on the field and most winners survived a clunker - a slightly negative putting round.
   
The best 4-round total was 3.001.  Keegan Bradley @ Firestone.  All 4 rounds were plus numbers highlighted by 5.537 final round - the best total and the best single round I have seen.

The worst 4-round total:  -.21  Rory McIlroy @ Crooked Stick.  Incredibly, Rory lost strokes to the field in 3 of his 4 rounds.  It was; however, a much reduced field - the semi-finals of the FedX Cup.

The worst single round that I saw among the winners was Tiger who survived a 3rd round -2.649 on his way to victory at Muirfield.  Not to jump on Tiger, but his aforementioned -5.288 (against Phil at Pebble last year) is the worst single round I have seen.  Bear in mind, I usually only study the winners and players with whom I am working.

So, James Hahn's -.566 Strokes Gained final round does not seem all that bad.  However, when Stacked up against Brandt's positive 3.185, simple math reveals 3.75 of the five stroke difference in their scores.  They both hit 14 Greens and each made a single bogey.  The difference, Brandt rolled in EIGHT birdies while James made only THREE. 

Are "These Guys" getting better or just smarter?

I just noticed an interesting trend among the Tour Winners that I have been analyzing this year.  With one exception (Tiger @ Torrey Pines) they are hitting more Greens-in-Regulation than the winners from the same events last year.  Of all the old school stats, I have always held this one in high regard.  It represents two positives:  First, the long game has been good enough to get there; and second, it is a birdie opportunity.  I estimate that, on average, each missed GIR on Tour carries a cost of .75 strokes (-30% birdie chance + 44% bogey chance = 74% rounded to 75%). 

I decided to compare the entire field in each of the first five events (graph above) and sure enough EVERYONE is hitting more greens.  But why?

Driving the ball better?  I don't think so.  

   Accuracy is about the same:  56.2% vs. 56.6% for 2012 vs. 2013 respectively. 

   Distance is actually down a bit this year:  289 vs 292 at this point in 2012.

Proximity to Hole is better:   The Tour average YTD is almost two feet closer:  35' 5 vs. 37' 3' (2012).  Remember, even shots missing the green are included in this number so it is not pure putting distance.

Could the answer be improved equipment - the combination of slightly improved irons and balls?  I apologize that I do not have the answer but I will keep watching to see if the trend continues.

One last point of interest.  The scoring is also lower for the field this year vs. last year at the same point:  69.8 vs. 70.5 = .7 strokes lower.  My .75 average cost of a missed GIR comes very close to that number.  Difference in GIR's:  13.3 - 12.5 = .8 x .75 = .6   Close enough!  

Perhaps it is as simple as a growing awareness of the value of the GIR?   SMARTER!

Why didn't Josh Teater WIN at Torrey Pines?

First - More Blog Posts?

Just returned from the PGA Show in Orlando.  I had the pleasure of connecting with quite a few of my instructor/clients.  I am most gratified that they all: a) read this blog avidly; and b) expressed an interest in more posts.  I discussed this with my great friend, Henry Brunton, (now a bona fide instructor/coach Rock Star) as he echoed this sentiment.  Understanding the work that goes into each blog post, Henry suggested posting weekly, but making three of every four much shorter.  As I do with all of Henry's wise advice, I will take it.  Further, if YOU have a statistical topic that you would like me to explore, please let me know!

What about Josh Teater?  

Tied for 2nd, Josh finished six shots behind Tiger.  Just try to find those six shots in the stats...

Using some of my favorite statistical barometers [Stack-18 (explained) and the 70% Rule (70% Rule explained)], Josh's performance was clearly better than Tiger's.

I can only conclude that Josh sprinkled more than a few of those pesky ERRORS into his game - the ones that cost strokes but disappear in the Tour stats.  As the Tour's Shot Tracker data also disappears from its website at some point each Tuesday night, I cannot answer my own question.  But true to my word, it certainly makes for a much shorter blog....

I really did look for clues:

1.  Missed Fairway Percent - Other:  (The % of missed fairways that result in a location other than the fairway or rough.)

Josh had one of these "Others."  If it were an OB/Lost, it would account for at least 2 of the 6 lost shots but we'll never know.  BTW, this could also have been a par 4 drive that reached the putting surface.
According to the stats, Tiger had NONE of these Others but I don't trust this stat because on the 15th hole in the 4th round, Tiger drove into an "Unknown" location and incurred a penalty (drop).  If that's not an Other, what is?

2.  Proximity ARG - (How close to the hole on average for all shots starting within 30 yards of the edge of the green.)
I generally like this stat as it tends to correlate fairly closely to ShotByShot.com's short game proximity.  Josh ranked 53rd at 8' 2" average proximity.  This compares to Tiger's 7' 1" and the field's 7' 11".  My guess: Josh made some errors in this part of his game - but again, the proof is lost in the Tour stats.

Finally, if I were Josh Teater's coach, and spent the time to go through this exercise, I would be extremely frustrated with not being able to answer the important question:  Why didn't Josh Teater WIN at Torrey Pines?     

Henley conducts How-To-Win Clinic at Waialae

In five years of studying the winners on the PGA Tour, I have not seen such pristine data that from Russell Henley's recent win at Waialae.  First, it makes my collection task much easier and enjoyable.  I actually root for my players as I follow them through their rounds and suffer along with them when trouble strikes.  As you can see from the graphic above, Russell Henley blew away my Stack-18, and on the way accomplished a number of statistical feats.  See Stack-18 Explained

GIR's:  15!  The closest that any winner came to this in 2012 was Steve Stricker's 12.75 GIR's at the Hyundai.  The only other 15 that I have seen was Martin Laird at the 2009 TPC Las Vegas.  Incidentally, these two winners also shared the unusual distinction of hitting all 18 GIR's, and coincidentally, in their second rounds.

Strokes Gained Putting:  Henley gained an impressive 3.042 strokes on the field per round, or 12 strokes overall.  Note in the chart above, the average of the 2012 winners was 1.3.  To exceed 2.0 is not uncommon, but only Keegan Bradley exceeded 3 strokes (3.001) in 2012 when he won the Bridgestone.

Errors:  NONE!  This may be Henley's most outstanding bright spot.  To put it in perspective, none of the 2012 winners avoided all errors, with the possible exception of Luke Donald whose single blemih was a 3-Putt from 50 feet - which I don't really consider an error.  Well done, Luke! 

The frequency of errors experienced by event winners that I have studied may be of interest.  I will define what I view as each error and provide the winner's frequency:

Driving:  Drive hit out of play or into a penalty situration.

One every 4.4 rounds.  The error is usually the lesser "No shot" or out of play mistake, requiring an advancement to return to normal play.  I have only seen two of the most severe driving errors (OB/Lost) among winners:  Tiger at Bay Hill and Dustin Johnson two weeks ago in Kapalua. 

Approach:  Approach shot hit out of play or into a penalty situation.   

One every 11 rounds.  This is usually a green missed in the water and is obviously course driven; however, Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar each suffered two in their wins at East Lake and TPC Sawgrass respectively.

Chip/Pitch:  Shots within 50 yards of the hole that miss the green.  

One every 2.6 rounds.  Remember, these are merely shots that miss the green and do not generally cost the winners a stroke.

Sand:  Shots within 50 yards of the hole that miss the green.    

One every 8 rounds.  

Putting:  A 3-Putt from 40 feet and closer to be an error at this level.

One every 5.5 rounds.

The frequency and severity of these errors are extremely important.  I have found that errors do far more to influence score, at every level, than do the other shots.  Obviously, the winners on Tour are at the lowest end of the scale for both frequency and the resulting severity of their mistakes.  You should see what happens as one journeys up the handicap ranks to the average golfer and higher, but that is another story.

What effect did the wind have on the 30 champions in Kapalua?

The Plantation course at Kapalua is a bomber's paradise with ample targets and large greens.  The four par 5's as well as three of the par 4's are reachable.  It is no surprise that a player like Dustin Johnson, if on his game, would win.  I found the most interesting aspect of this event to be the severe winds and their impact on performance.

The greatest impact was on putting!

Kapalua's greens are always near the top by my measure of difficulty, but were even more so this week due to extreme winds.  [For more on my measure of relative green difficulty, see my last entry:  Were the Barclays Greens Unfair?]  I look at two stats as a measure of putting difficulty:

1.  3-Putt Avoidance - the higher the number or frequency of 3-Putts, the more difficult the greens;

2.  # of Players in the field with ZERO 3-Putts - the lower the number, the more difficult...

3-Putt Avoidance

Last year the field at Kapalua was 5.04% - the highest of all the courses that I checked in my 2012 study.  5.04% means that the entire field (only 30 player/champions) averaged 3.6 3-Putts in 72 holes.  For perspective, in a typical tournament, an average field would 3-Putt twice in 72 holes.  This year the average for the Hyundai field at Kapalua was 7.47%.  The 30 champions averaged FOUR 3-Putts in just 54 holes.  Further, Dustin Johnson (the winner) had three 3-Putts.  Most PGA Tour winners have NONE, but some sneak by with only one putting blemish.

Players with zero 3-Putts

The average for the 25 courses in my 2012 study was 12 players.  In the 2012 Hyundai, only ONE player in the field escaped without a 3-Jack.  (Guess who?*)  This year's field not only had NO such lucky players, the best were seven players that had only two 3-Putts.  None of the events in last year's study had NO players in this category.

The long game was the least affected

Greens-hit in-regulation achieved by the field were almost identical from 2012 to 2013:  14.6 vs. 14.5.  Even these numbers are high as the Tour average in 2012 was 11.3 GIR's.

Finally, I thought that approach shot accuracy would certainly be affected by the high winds - I know mine is.  Not so much!  Proximity to the hole following approach shots was also very close from 2012 to 2013:  40' 7" vs. 41' 1".  Literally only six inches or less than 1% difference in accuracy in 30 to 40 MPH gusting winds.  THESE GUYS REALLY ARE GOOD!

*Bubba Watson!