Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Henley conducts How-To-Win Clinic at Waialae

In five years of studying the winners on the PGA Tour, I have not seen such pristine data that from Russell Henley's recent win at Waialae.  First, it makes my collection task much easier and enjoyable.  I actually root for my players as I follow them through their rounds and suffer along with them when trouble strikes.  As you can see from the graphic above, Russell Henley blew away my Stack-18, and on the way accomplished a number of statistical feats.  See Stack-18 Explained

GIR's:  15!  The closest that any winner came to this in 2012 was Steve Stricker's 12.75 GIR's at the Hyundai.  The only other 15 that I have seen was Martin Laird at the 2009 TPC Las Vegas.  Incidentally, these two winners also shared the unusual distinction of hitting all 18 GIR's, and coincidentally, in their second rounds.

Strokes Gained Putting:  Henley gained an impressive 3.042 strokes on the field per round, or 12 strokes overall.  Note in the chart above, the average of the 2012 winners was 1.3.  To exceed 2.0 is not uncommon, but only Keegan Bradley exceeded 3 strokes (3.001) in 2012 when he won the Bridgestone.

Errors:  NONE!  This may be Henley's most outstanding bright spot.  To put it in perspective, none of the 2012 winners avoided all errors, with the possible exception of Luke Donald whose single blemih was a 3-Putt from 50 feet - which I don't really consider an error.  Well done, Luke! 

The frequency of errors experienced by event winners that I have studied may be of interest.  I will define what I view as each error and provide the winner's frequency:

Driving:  Drive hit out of play or into a penalty situration.
One every 4.4 rounds.  The error is usually the lesser "No shot" or out of play mistake, requiring an advancement to return to normal play.  I have only seen two of the most severe driving errors (OB/Lost) among winners:  Tiger at Bay Hill and Dustin Johnson two weeks ago in Kapalua. 
Approach:  Approach shot hit out of play or into a penalty situation.   
One every 11 roundsThis is usually a green missed in the water and is obviously course driven; however, Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar each suffered two in their wins at East Lake and TPC Sawgrass respectively.
Chip/Pitch:  Shots within 50 yards of the hole that miss the green.  
One every 2.6 rounds.  Remember, these are merely shots that miss the green and do not generally cost the winners a stroke.
Sand:  Shots within 50 yards of the hole that miss the green.    
One every 8 rounds.  
Putting:  A 3-Putt from 40 feet and closer to be an error at this level.
One every 5.5 rounds.

The frequency and severity of these errors are extremely important.  I have found that errors do far more to influence score, at every level, than do the other shots.  Obviously, the winners on Tour are at the lowest end of the scale for both frequency and the resulting severity of their mistakes.  You should see what happens as one journeys up the handicap ranks to the average golfer and higher, but that is another story.

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