Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Finally a course where FAIRWAYS matter!

Fairways hit?
As my frequent readers know, I consider this age-old measure of driving accuracy to be the worst of all the traditional golf stats.  I improved upon it by having players categorize the relative severity of their missed fairways.  For more on this see:  Just How Important are "Fairways Hit"?  However, NOT SO at Harbour Town Golf Links!  It is no coincidence that the winner for the last five years has needed to hit them in bunches in order to prevail.  The last five winners have all beaten the Harbour Town field and far surpassed the PGA Tour average (2011 YTD = 61%) in this stat:
  1. 2011 Brandt Snedeker - 76.8%,  Field 67%
  2. 2010 Jim Furyk - 76.8%, Field 63%
  3. 2009 Brian Gay - 83.9%, Field 62%
  4. 2008 Boo Weekley - 71.4%, Field 64%
  5. 2008 Boo Weekley - 75%, Field 62%
For perspective on how unimportant this stat tends to be, below are a five events this year, on very good golf courses, in which the winner got away with fairways at or just above the 50% range:
  1. Redstone GC - 53%
  2. Innisbrook - 58%
  3. Doral - 58%
  4. Riviera - 50%
  5. Torrey Pines - 50%
What is it about Harbour Town?
Short by today's standards - at 6,973 yards (Par 71) - its fairways are closely bracketed by forests of towering pine trees.  As if the trunks of these massive trees aren't imposing enough, their canopies loom out over the fairways in the space usually reserved for ball flight.  I have played the course many times, and it is not at all uncommon to be in the fairway and either be blocked or face a shot that must be curved  around tree limbs in order to hit your target green.  Annoying when it happens to you but a big part of the charm of this Pete Dye classic.  This and Dye's famous railroad tie buttressed greens.  Also annoying or charming depending on their influence on YOUR shots.     

That said, it would be a shame to see this 43 year old event dropped for lack of a sponsor.  I was interested to hear Jim Nantz and Sir Nick "begging" for a new sponsor.  While not my area of expertise, I would wager that The Heritage Classic is not alone and that the PGA Tour must be totally re-thinking the terms, cost structure and benefits needed to entice new sponsors.  I don't believe it has anything to do with Tiger fallout but simply the economy and increased scrutiny of client entertainment.  Two important dynamics have changed:  1.  Fewer corporations can justify the outrageous expense and  2.  Even if they can, most of their clients can't be seen accepting the favor of an extravagant golf boondoggle, or justify the time out of the office.  I will be interested to talk to my friends in that end of the business to see where this is going.  As I learn anything worth reporting, I will do so. 

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Valero Texas Open - Not exactly the Masters

It should not have been a surprise that the PGA Tour had another first time winner at the  Valero Texas Open.  Why?  The vast majority of the field qualified for this dubious honor.  Only three of the Top-20 in the FedX race were in the field and the final threesome on Sunday was comprised of total unknowns.  These three came into the event with a combined 240 FedX points, placing them barely in the Top-150.  So it was not just the colorless, arid terrain that was starkly different from last week's Masters; but then, that is what makes the Masters and the Majors so special.  

Ignoring for a moment the lackluster field, the final nine holes were interesting and had some drama.   I was pleased for Brendan Steele when he rolled in the 7 foot putt to achieve his first Tour win.  His  YTD performance from 7 feet is 64%, slightly better than the Tour average of 61%.  Factor in the weight of the circumstances, and that he three-putted from 6 feet in Friday's round, and that final putt showed some character.  

My Winner's 70% Rule?
Briefly, I have found that to win on the PGA Tour a player needs three key stats to average 70%:   GIR's, Scrambling and Putts holed in the 5-10 foot range.  For more see:   Last Time on the 70% Rule... In reviewing Brendan's ShotByShot.com analysis, he barely crept over the 70% Rule bar - actually hit it on the mark.  With GIR's at only 58%, his Scrambling (73%) and Putting in the 5-10 foot range (79%) pulled him up to the 70% mark.  While he passed the 70% test, Brendan failed the important Errors component of my Rule by one.  The 70% Rule calls for three or fewer Errors in a four-round event, and Brendan committed FOUR:

Long Game Error
    1.  Drive result Penalty
    2.  Drive result No Shot, bogey

Short Game Errors
    3.  Chip/Pitch missed green, failed to get down in total of 3 shots.

Putting Error
    4.  3-Putt from 40 feet and closer (6 feet).

Was it the caliber of the field or the severe wind conditions on a demanding course that allowed the winner to overcome the Error component of my 70% Rule?  Most likely both.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

How did I do on the Masters?

I am definitely getting old as I look forward to watching the Masters more than Christmas and this year's was a great one.  In one respect my instincts were good as my little syndicate owned the top three finishers in our annual Master's pool AND therefore took almost all of the pot.  Additionally, last week I cited three attributes that the Masters winner would most likely share with our Winner's Profile and three other predictors.  Here is how Charl Schwartzle and I did:

1.  Off Shore Holeouts - Charl had two of these for birdie and eagle on the front 9 of his final round.

2.  Scrambling, extraordinary saves - His Off Shore, chip in on the 1st hole for birdie qualifies - even par would have been a great save.  I am sure that he had others - see #3.

3.  Managing the downside - In round #2 Charl hit only 9 of 18 GIR's but made only two bogeys and finished with a well-managed 71.  For the event, Charl had only 7 bogeys and NO doubles or worse.  That is "Managing...."

I also said:  ...the winner this week at Augusta will almost surely:
  • Be a long hitter:  Charl's certainly long enough - 19th on the European Tour @ 297 yards.
  • Rank relatively high in GIR stats on his respective tourCharl ranks 59th on the European Tour @ 70%.  Again, good enough, especially considering it meets the ShotByShot.com 70% rule for Winners.  
  • Has already won on the PGA Tour or a Major:  I obviously missed this one but I will stand by it in the future, regardless.  Why?  He is only the third player in history to get his first win on the PGA Tour at Augusta.  I could only find two players on the Champion's list that have no history or mention on the PGA Tour:  Ralph Guldahl (1939) and Herman Keiser (1946) - a decidedly different era in golf. 
I give myself 5 out of 6, but I also admitted at the time that I was climbing out on a pretty safe limb. 

    Wednesday, April 6, 2011

    Which Phil will show up for the Masters?

    If Phil Mickelson had continued his first two rounds performance on the weekend, he would have barely made the Top-20 in the Shell Houston Open.  Instead, he caught fire and equaled the course record on Saturday (63) and capped off a three-shot victory with 65 on Sunday.  The major difference in performance was putting, primarily in the critical 6 - 10 foot range.  In the first two rounds he made only 3 of 6, but increased both opportunities and results to 7 of 9 on the weekend.

    Obviously it was not all about putting. Phil also exhibited several other attributes that tend to crop up in PGA Tour Winners AND will come in very handy at Augusta if he can bring them along: 

        1.  Offshore hole-outs - Phil holed three shots from off the green.  Winners more often than not have one of these not-necessarily-lucky outcomes.

        2.  Scrambling, extraordinary saves - Twice on the Par-4, 6th hole, Phil drove into the hazard, incurred a penalty stroke, but was able to save par.

         3.  Manage the downside - Phil obviously did not have his "A" game during his first two rounds but managed to steer the ship in at acceptable numbers of -2 (70) both rounds.  Just close enough to bound into the lead with one great round.  How many times have we seen Tiger do that? 

    In addition to the attributes above, the winner this week at Augusta will almost surely: 
    • Be a long hitter;
    • Rank relatively high in GIR stats on his respective tour;
    • Have already won on the PGA Tour or a Major.
    Not a very long limb but let's see how I do?