No wonder Rickie Fowler hasn't WON before!

I have never paid much attention to Rickie Fowler - although he is hard to miss when he shows up dressed like a giant creamsicle.  But then, if I were paid what I can only guess he is paid, I would probably...  In what little I have seen of Rickie on TV, I have concluded that he is a poor putter.  He just seems to miss too many key putts when in the spotlight.  So when I saw him sneaking up the leaderboard on Sunday at Quail Hollow I assumed that he would fall short, again.  The fact that he hung on to win surprised me and made me question my belief that Rickie's weakness is his putting.  As I try to study the winner of every event, I looked forward to taking a close look at Rickie and what he did to get his first win.

First, my impressions were correct - Rickie is a POOR putter - by PGA Tour standards.  In this event he simply putted well enough to squeak by.  The Strokes Gained Putting stats - by far the Tour's BEST stat -  support my point (for an explanation of this stat, see: At-last-putting-analysis-we-can-trust):

• Fowler's Strokes Gained total of .672 at Quail Hollow was the second worst of the 13 Winners that I have studied this season.  Only Justin Rose putted worse in his win at Doral (.114).  
• The 2012 Winners have averaged 1.549.  This means they have gained 1.5+ strokes on the field per round, or just over six strokes per 4-round event. 
• Rickie has recorded NEGATIVE Strokes Gained putting totals in SIX of the TEN "measured" events this season.   (Measured means tour ShotLink data is collected.)
• His average for these six events is -1.345 vs. only .695 for the three positive Strokes Gained totals.
• For the season to date, Rickie is ranked 140 in this important stat.  His overall average per round is -.235.
• This is clearly why Rickie has had trouble getting a win on Tour.  Just like the old adage that "99% of putts that don't reach the hole, don't go in" - I can add that 99% of players that give back strokes to the field on the greens, DON'T WIN!  

So how did Rickie win at Quail Hollow?
Very simply, his long game carried him to victory.  It was sharp and efficient and featured zero serious errors.  His short game complemented his long game in that it was solid and also produced no errors.  Rickie's putting - just good enough.

Driving - 2nd in accuracy, but more importantly, no penalty strokes on a very difficult driving golf course with many well-placed hazards.

GIR's - Ranked 5th with 14.25.  This is very good -  the 2012 Winners average just under 13 GIR's.

Proximity ARG - Ranked 8th @ 5' 10."  This is the stat that measures the putting distance after every shot that starts within 30 yards of the edge of the green.  The field avg. was 7' 3."

Hopefully Rickie's coach has recognized and is addressing the glaring weakness in Rickie's game.  Clearly, if he expects to contend with top tier players on the PGA Tour, he needs dramatic improvement in his putting. 

Player Ranking Report is ready!

What is it?

This new report can be run on selected players within a group (or an entire group) for a certain event or period of time.  It Ranks each player by Score and for each facet of the game in ShotByShot.com terms.  Further, it supports the analysis with the key pieces of data that most influence each piece of the puzzle.

Background

For the past two years I have prepared this report for RCGA and GAO Junior events.  The first year, I transferred each piece of data (for hundreds of players) from each player's individual analysis and did all the Rankings and summary calculations by hand.  It seemed like a good idea at the time... AND IT WAS as these unique reports were very well received.  So well received that I made a commitment to make it available as an additional feature for the appropriate groups. 

This also seemed like a good idea...  Two different programming companies, four different programmers and countless dollars have passed under the bridge BUT, FINALLY, and thanks to the professionalism of my friends at USchedule, my idea has become a reality.  The Player Ranking Report is now available as a Group Leader option.

Who wants or needs it?

The obvious candidates are:

• HS and College Golf Teams
• Junior programs

Instructors with motivated players that want to improve and become better competitors.  After discussing it with a long-time instructor/client, we came up with the following:

• Build a group of similarly motivated students.
• It will help if they are of a similar handicap range.
• Designate Tournament days or weekends during which the players record stroke play rounds.
• Run the reports and share/discuss them with the group.

This will be great experience and allow them to see exactly where they stand among their peers.  Great preparation for competition and for seeing what it really takes to get to the next level.

What does the report function cost? 

I have not decided yet.  For a limited time, I will allow my current Group Leaders to use it.  If interested, please contact me.

Phone:  203-968-1608

Email:  PSanders@shotbyshot.com  

No Wonder Luke Donald is #1 in the World!

 

Last week I mentioned one of my general rules for winning on the PGA Tour:  Stack-18.  I emphasize GENERAL because as with most RULES it does not always hold true.  Such was the case with Justin Rose last week at the WGC event.  I pointed this out because Justin was the lowest "Stack" Winner that I have seen at 16.6.  By contrast, Luke Donald built the highest Stack at 20.9 when he recently won the Transitions Championship.  

What is Stack-18?

In my ongoing study of the Winners on Tour, I have observed that they consistently stack up a total of  the following three key stats for a grand total of 18:

1.  GIR's

2.  Successful Scrambles - The number of par saves when the GIR is missed.

3.  Strokes Gained - Putting

I take each of these stats (per round averages for the event) and add them together.  As you can see from the chart above, the average total for the winners of the first nine tournaments of 2012 is 18.1 (this excludes Luke Donald).  With the exception of Luke and the aforementioned Justin Rose, there is an eerie consistency among the rest as they are tightly clustered around the magic #18.  

The reason Luke Donald's stack is so high is that he actually doubles up on two pieces of the stack.  His successful scrambles (79%) are high because of his short game prowess AND his exceptional putting.  Luke's short game is strong but his putting is the best on Tour.  He was #1 in Strokes Gained Putting in 2011 and #1 in the Transitions tournament at 2.59.  This number tells us that based upon the distance of each putting opportunity, and the number of putts needed to hole out, Luke beat the average putting performance of the Transitions' field by an average of 2.59 shots per round - or over 10 strokes in total for the tournament.

Despite a lone 3-putt (50 ft.), Luke Donald 1-putted 34 of 70 holes (that's 49%!!) and OH, he holed out from "off-shore" on the other two holes.  In addition to his 17, par saving, 1-putts to achieve a 79% Scrambling stat (the Tour avg. is 58%), Luke had 17 additional 1-putt greens.   I hope my fellow Master's pool participants aren't reading this ... little chance,  only a couple of them can read.

What edged Justin Rose to #1 at Doral?

 

You = Justin Rose @ TPC Blue Monster - Doral

According to my general rules for Winners on the PGA Tour, Justin should have come up short.  He averaged only 63% when matched up to my 70% Rule and totaled only 16.6 next to my Stack-18.  I have not written about the latter yet but will soon.  Briefly, the Winners achieve a total of 18 when adding the following three key stats:

1. GIR's/per round (11.75)
2. Successful Scrambles (Non-GIR's x Scrambling %) - (6.25 x 76% = 4.75)
3. Strokes Gained - Putting for the event - (.114)

 Justin's Total = 16.64 

What did Justin do well?

Long Game - He kept the ball in play.  Justin had no penalties on a course that had its share of penalty opportunities.  The Tour does not give us penalty data but I saw a bunch during the telecast and the other players that I studied each had some. 

Short Game - Justin had 26 Chip/Pitch shots in his four rounds.  He got the ball on the green 25 times (20 / 77% finished within 5 feet of the hole) with an overall average putting distance of 3' 7".  The single short game shot that missed the green was on the 72nd hole where Justin was faced with a very difficult pitch over bunkers to a green that "ran away" toward the water.  Only needing to get down in two, he allowed the ball to barely roll past the pin and stop a foot or so off the green.

By way of perspective, the prior 2012 Winners that I have studied, have achieved average putting distances of 6' 7" - obviously very good.  Boy, is that a significant 3 feet!  The Tour average 1-Putt percentage jumps from just under 60% at 6' 7" to just under 90% at 3' 7".  It is no wonder that Justin's Strokes Gained Putting stat was so mediocre (he barely bested the field) .  It wasn't that he was missing putts that he should make, it was that he was rarely far enough from the hole for his 1-putts to rack up any meaningful strokes saved vs. the model.   

How Close is Tiger?

 

TIGER's SHOT BY SHOT.com PUTTING HANDICAPS

2012 Honda Classic

I had almost forgotten how much fun it was to see Tiger charging at the end of a PGA Tour event.  My peaked interest in this week's Honda Classic motivated me to watch the action LIVE, which I almost never do - I hate the commercials.  I prefer to record the telecast and tune in about half way.  This allows me to  fast forward through the commercials and "fluff" to finish in time to catch any playoff live.  But this event was exciting from the beginning of the Golf Channel telecast thanks to Tiger's early tee time and great play.

My extended viewing caused me to hear lots of pundit-speak about how close Tiger was, and opinions on what he needed to return to form.  I will admit that the Sunday morning experts alluded to Tiger's putting, but once again showed their lack of sophistication (or their AGE) by citing the number of putts spent in the first three rounds - COME ON PEOPLE!  Tiger's Strokes Gained - Putting stats laid it out clearly.  He gave up 2.35 strokes to the field in the first two rounds (3.6 strokes to Rory McIlroy).  His putting improved in the third round to gain 1.43 strokes on the field but still .6 strokes behind Rory.  Tiger's putting in the final round was exceptional but so was Rory's.  Overall, Tiger gained .56 strokes on the field, but LOST 3.9 strokes to Rory.  Bear in mind, this is putting alone - the one part of the game where we no longer need to guess.

Considering Tiger fell short by just two strokes, it would indicate that the rest of Tiger's game stands up well to the World's new #1.  I looked more closely and agree that it did, at least in this event.

Long Game

Tiger needed only 32.9 long game strokes to achieve 12.5 GIR's  per round while Rory needed 32.2 long strokes to reach 12 GIR's.  In addition to hitting two more GIR's, Tiger's average proximity to the hole was 20 feet - four feet closer than Rory's 24 foot avg.  I give the long game edge to Tiger.

Short Game

Tiger had 26 short game opportunities to Rory's 30.  While Rory clearly won the "Up-and-Down" battle (73% vs. 62%), as I have preached for years - that stat is a composite of short game + PUTTING.  A better measurement would be proximity to the hole.  Rory also won this one but only by one foot (5' 10" vs. 6' 11").  When I think about standing over it, that is an important 13 inches.  That said, we can give the short game edge to Rory - but not by much.

Bottom line, it was clearly Rory's putting prowess that won the day.  Congratulations Rory!  Tiger, welcome back!  Whatever you and Sean Foley worked on after Friday's round did the trick.  Keep up the good work and I look forward to  watching more live TV - it's good for the game.