How difficult were the poa greens at Riviera

I recently did a detailed Putting - Distance Control study comparing Jordan Spieth's 2015 year to the most recent five, year-end, Strokes Gained leaders and the 2015 Tour average (please look for my article in the next issue of Golf Digest).  Something jumped out in that there were 88 4-Putts and five 5-Putts on Tour in 2015.  We obviously don't see these on TV.  I typically have one 4-Putt every season so like to get it out of the way early in the year.  Have never recorded 5 putts yet - WHEW!  In 27 years of Shot By Shot data, we see very few 4-Putts.  Why?  The vast majority of our rounds are match play format and players tend to very appropriately pick up that 3rd putt.

Not only did the fairly large number of 4+ putts stand out but two courses owned more of them than any of the others:

• CC of Jackson had the most with EIGHT 4-Putts in 2015.  
• Riviera was 2nd with SEVEN 4-Putts and, even more surprising, was that FIVE of the seven fell on the 1st hole - a very reachable Par 5.  

There was quite a bit of discussion during the Norther Trust telecast about the difficulty of the poa greens so I decided to see HOW difficult and WHY; as well as, see if the 4-Putts were repeated. 

The greater difficulty is not a surprise and was specifically pointed out by Nick Faldo - specifically the ability, or lack thereof, to make the 4-5 ft. putts.  Good get Sir Nick!  To support your point, the biggest difference between the 2015 Tour average and Riviera performance was the 4-5 ft. range (see graphic above).  This key distance led to the highest rate of 3-Putts that I have seen in a PGA Tour event.  Riviera = .72/round vs. 2015 Tour avg. = .51/round. 

Was it the Lag difficulty?

No!  The average start distances and leaves/results were close enough to be a wash but the average leave distances for 3-Putts was telling.  In 2015 the Tour's average leave  on 3+ Putts was 6.1 ft. (the distance for their 2nd putt).  At Riviera the average 3+ Putt leave distance was 5.7 ft.  In short, the Riviera field 3-Putted with far greater frequency by missing shorter 2nd putts - on average 5 inches closer to the hole. 

What about the 4-Putts? 

There were TEN in 2016 - up from the SEVEN in 2015.  They were obviously caused by unusually difficult pin placements:

• Round 1, THREE 4-Putts, on three different holes.
• Round 2, FOUR 4-Putts, 9th hole.
• Round 4, THREE 4-Putts, 6th hole.

I wonder if the Tour officials review their numbers to identify, and avoid, these overly difficult placements? 

Putting: Two important but different skills

Putting is 40% of the game at virtually every handicap level.  The higher the scoring level, the more putts are needed, but the ratio of # Putts/Score holds steady.  That is, up until the 20+ handicaps when the pickup holes, with no putts recorded, slightly lower the percentage.

So what are the two skills?

1.  Short putts:  Line and accuracy are crucial inside 10 feet.  Practicing a solid setup and alignment routine will help insure consistent accuracy.

2.  Distance control:  In longer, lag putts, the most important skill to develop is feel because distance is more important than line.

How much to practice each skill

A study of putting distances faced by the average golfer (15-19 handicap) reveals that practice time should be split 80% short putts / 20% distance control.  That's because 83% of total putts during an average round occur inside 10 feet (this is all putts:  1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd …).  When looking at just first-putt opportunities outside 10 feet, 88% fall between 11 and 40 feet; only 12% at 41+ feet.  

  

To practice your distance control, I recommend spending time gaining confidence in your 30 foot lag.  You can then make all other lag putts a function of that stroke.  It is very important when playing away from home to set up 30 foot tees and putt back and forth (I use two balls) until that distance becomes almost automatic.  When you hit the first green, you will be ready to stroke the first putt with confidence.

Work with your instructor on the specific practice drills for each skill, but your goals should be:

Short putts:  Increase your 50% Make distance – the distance from which you hole 50% of your putts.  See where you are on the graph below.

Distance control:  Work to expand your 2.00 Putt distance – the distance from which you two-Putt the vast majority, but one and three-putt with the same frequency on the rest.  Again, see where you fit on the graph below and work to extend your 2.00 distance.

You will need a way of accurately recording and analyzing your putting distances.  I recommend ShotByShot.com.  Self-serving?  Perhaps, but it's the only place I know where you can easily and accurately get the information you need to determine your exact strengths and weaknesses, and why. 

Determining your putting distances? I recommend that you build this into your pre-shot putting routine.  When you reach the green, you need to mark your ball and walk to the flag.  Simply count your steps.  For the longer putts, get to the midpoint - check the break - and count your steps back to your ball.  Then double the number.  Finally, know the distance of your average stride – heel to heel.  I am 6’ 1” and my average, walking stride is 28 inches.  I have to stride out a bit to average 3 feet, something that I actually practiced in my living room until it became automatic.

What is your 2.0 Putt Distance?

In studying performance at all levels for more than 25 years, I have found that there are two distinct skills needed to become a good putter:  Alignment and Distance Control.  Proper alignment is especially critical in the 1-Putt range.  Distance control is critical to avoid 3-Putts from longer range.  It is important to practice both skills.  I recommend spending 60% to 70% of your practice time on the former, or putts inside 10 ft., with special emphasis on 3, 4 and 5 footers.  I carry the SeeMore Triangulator in my golf bag, and do not let a week go by during the season without using it to sharpen my short putt alignment. 

I like to measure skill levels in these two important skills in terms of the 50% Make distance - the distance at which a player consistently makes 50% of their putts; and, the 2.0 Distance - the distance from which a player averages 2.0 putts.  Simply stated, from your 2.0 distance, you 2-Putt the vast majority.  But when you don't, you 1-Putt and 3-Putt with the same frequency. 

The graph above displays the 2.0 Putt distances for an array of handicap levels.  The 50% Make distances are:

Tour - 8 ft.,  0 Hcp - 7 ft.,  5 to 15 Hcp - 6 ft.  20 Hcp - 5 ft.

Over your next few rounds try to get a feel for where your skills stand.  If you would like to know precisely, log on to www.ShotByShot.com and register for our FREE Trial.  We have been providing Strokes Gained Analysis to all golfers since 1992. 

Good Show, Young Mr. Spieth!

As I was enjoying the Sunday coverage of the Byron Nelson Championship, my bride came in to join me and the first words out of her mouth were: "My lord, that player looks like he is about 16 years old!"  And thank goodness that Jordan Spieth was able to avoid the truant office and participate, as he was the life and excitement of an otherwise bland event. 

I suppose one could consider the final few holes interesting.  I found them painful.  Jason Day not only tried to lose on the 18th hole but worse tried to spoil my 70% Rule for Winners on the PGA Tour (read more here). His crime was less about the sub-70% levels of his "Key Winner's Stats,"  and much more about the unbelievable number of ERRORS (7) that he committed and survived.  This anomaly  is likely attributable to the strength, or lack thereof, of the field.  Accordingly, I will say no more about the errors.

Instead, I was very impressed by the game and the obvious poise and self confidence of young Jordan Spieth.  He handled the glaring spotlight and the pressure like a winner.  I was so impressed that I decided to capture his ShotByShot data from ShotLink and run his analysis against our Winner's profile as well as that of Jason Day.  As you can see from the Key stats above, Jordan was very close.  Here's where the data tells me he needs work in order to attain his first win:

1.  Putting - His distance control was excellent, but Jordan can improve his % 1-Putts in the 4 to 10 foot range.  (Tour Winners - 69% vs. Jordan - 57%.)

2.  Short Game: Chip/Pitch Shots - Unbelievable for a 16 year old under that kind of pressure, but the Tour Winners make almost no mistakes and hit the ball even closer.  (Average Putting Distances:  Tour Winners - 5.8 ft. vs. Jordan - 7.5 ft.)  Incidentally, a sure way to improve short putting is to hit it closer on average.

Finally Jordan, keep up the great play, but don't forget to enjoy the rest of high school and especially college.  The PGA Tour will be waiting and I will look forward to recording your stats as one of its very popular winners.

 

2' Feet 11" will Haunt Villegas

I am really enjoying watching the PGA Tour players compete in the WGC Accenture Match Play event. It is the format that the majority of us enjoy and we can empathize and think along with the big boys. There is no question in my mind that they play differently. The normal, stroke play events require a much higher degree of control and game management because even if not a winner, every stroke is worth a great deal of money. I also believe that the change in format puts a different type of pressure on the world's best players and cite as an example the short putt missed by Camillo Villegas on the 23rd hole of his match against Paul Casey. Let's call it 3 feet that would have ended the match and placed Camillo in the finals. Instead, the hole was halved, and he went on to lose the match. We have all done it - I know I have.

Perspective on Villegas, his Putting and 3 Footers

His World Ranking: 24
In 2009, Villegas won $1.8 million in 21 events. His best finish was 3rd, with four Top-10 finishes, ten Top-25's and only two missed cuts. Very consistent! If we are to put any stock in the Tour stats, he managed all this despite being a below average putter.

• His Putting Average (Putts/GIR's) - 2009 Rank 116. Everyone who reads Niblicks of Truth knows I hate this old stand-by tour stat, and why. Please just trust me - ignore it.
  
• Total Putting - 2009 Rank 191: While not up to ShotByShot.com's putting analysis standards, this stat is so much better than putts/GIR. It is a weighted average of the player's rank in each of six new ShotLink putting stats. I won't bore you with the details but it is an array of putting ranges from 3 to 25 feet, and 3 Putt Avoidance from 25 feet. It may not be perfect, but Camillo's 191 Tour ranking is definitely not good.
  

3 Footers

One of the Tour stats with which I cannot argue is "Putts from 3 Feet." In 2009, Camillo missed only 7 in 88 rounds. He was successful with 637 of his 644 attempts - 98.9% This seems fairly good but it ranked him #146. Evidently the average of the PGA Tour would have only missed 6 - 99.19%. Further digging revealed that 3 players were perfect from 3 feet last year:

1. Steve Stricker: 662 of 662 in 81 rounds
2. Bob Heintz: 557 of 557 in 59 rounds
3. Ian Poulter: 442 of 442 in 59 rounds (no wonder he is in the finals of the match play)

How about the rest of us from 3 feet? The percentages below represent 3 feet and closer so not exactly the same as the Tour numbers above. I will run the specific 3 foot # soon, but for now you will get the point:

• 10 handicap - 94%
• 18 handicap - 90%
  

Consider that we amateurs face at least ten putts in the 3-foot range each time we play. They are worth practicing - just ask Camillo Villegas!

Liberty National: Looked Like a Major

This new golf venue showed itself exceptionally well during the telecasts this weekend. Sadly, for the vast majority of the golfing public, the TV is as close as they will ever get to this ultra-exclusive, private club.

I am fortunate to have played Liberty National late last year, and can report that it is breathtaking. Once you catch your breath, however, and get down to working your way around the golf course, the design features grab your full attention. This golf course is hard!

The designers took advantage of just about every known defense against scoring. Once you are bitten, the obstacles seem to loom larger and more prominently with every hole. First, as the announcers noted, the course was built on a relatively small parcel of land so it is tight, but fairly long at 7,419 yards. (We played about 7,000 which was all we could handle and more.) The fairways are bordered by a combination of water, deep bunkers, long fescue and trees. The greens are well protected by bunkers, false fronts, sides and backs and fairly severe undulations.

Don't get me wrong. Liberty National is not an unfair golf course, but it is demanding, especially off the tees, and it punishes errors sternly. I estimate that the average 10 handicap would need at least six balls to finish a round, and would not leave feeling confident about the overall strength of their game - and that is if they play an appropriate set of tees. My group of grizzled veterans relished the challenge and thoroughly enjoyed the journey. Fortunately we had enough ammo and departed energized by the beauty and competitive experience with only minor bruises to our egos. That said, I was anxious to see how the pro's handled it and admit to taking some pleasure in what Liberty did to the best in the world.

Let's just compare the profile of the winner (Heath Slocum) to that of the winners of non-Major PGA Tournaments in 2009:

Score: Heath's -9 total is six shots higher than the -15.25 average of the 32 prior regular PGA Tour events. By comparison, the four major winners averaged -6.5. Personally, I find the more difficult tests to be much more interesting.

Driving Errors: Heath made three tee shot errors (2 were "No shot" results that required advancements to get the ball back in play and the third was a penalty). The prior winners have averaged approximately one such error in 4 rounds. Tiger, only 1 shot back, made an uncharacteristic six driving errors this week.

GIR's: Heath hit 11.5 greens which was good (tied for 6th). The field at Liberty National averaged an incredibly low 9.9 GIR's while the average of the previous winners is 13.5 GIR's.

Long Game Efficiency*: Heath needed 3+ long game strokes for every green hit in regulation. The previous winners average 2.4 long game strokes for each GIR.

*This refers to our patented method for measuring overall Long Game performance. For a better explanation, log on to www.shotbyshot.com.

As I said, the course is particularly demanding off the tee and punishes errant shots.

Here are two more Niblicks of Truth:
Last week, I wrote about Steve Marino's putting issues - especially in the 6 to 10 foot range. Steve hung near the lead this week until he shot 40 on the final 9 holes to fall into a tie for 15th. While I did not collect and analyze his data, I watched and believe that his putting frustrations finally got to him and affected the rest of his game.

Speaking of that critical 6 to 10 foot range, Tiger made only 5 of 14 (36%). His normal success in this range is 65%. His struggles were punctuated by a miss from 7 feet on the final hole to tie the lead - he really is human!

Wonder if Steve Marino Knows How Close He Was (is) at the Wyndham?

Steve Marino is one of the recognizable newcomers on the PGA Golf Tour but has yet to win. He has made almost $5 million dollars in three years and has gotten very close to victory with two 2nd's and 14 Top-10's. Marino tied for 10th at the Wyndham Championship last weekend and was only three strokes behind the leaders and a play-off. Wouldn't Steve Marino - and the rest of us - like to know where his golf game fell short? Unfortunately his "Key Stats" on the Tour's website were typically vague (see above). To help with the analysis I ran his data through the ShotByShot.com models to see exactly where and why he missed out on his first victory.

Long Game Efficiency:
Steve's long game compared very favorably to the three players that tied for the lead and to our 2009 Winner's Profile ("Winners").
Greens-Hit-in-Regulation: 14 vs 13.75 Winners
Long Game Efficiency Index*: 2.35 vs 2.32 Winners
ShotByShot.com Long Game Handciap: +7 vs. +7 Winners

*This is our patented method of measuring the overall efficiency of a player's long game. For a better explanation, log onto http://www.shotbyshot.com/.

Short Game:

Marino's average short game shots finished within 5 feet of the hole, and he saved 75%. This compares favorably to the Winners database (5.3 feet and 69% saved).

Sand Game:

I am ignoring the Sand game because coincidentally all four of the players analyzed had just one opportunity and simply hit their shots on the green and 2-putted from similar distances.

Putting:
This is where Marino fell short, and the deficiency was especially glaring when I processed his putting data by distance:
ShotByShot.com Putting Handicap: +1 vs. +4 Winners

For putts in the 6 to 10 foot range, Marino made only 2 of 13 (15%) vs. 62% Winners. The three players that tied for the lead at the Wyndham made 65% of their putts in this critical range. (Ironically, the winner - Ryan Moore - was the worst with 8 of 14, or 57%.) Had Steve Marino made just 6 of his 13 opportunities (46%), he would have still been just below the average of the PGA Tour in the 6 to 10 foot range (50%), but he would have secured his 1st victory by 1 shot!

More on Short Putts

Practice makes perfect. Too bad it is so tedious. But it is really important if you want to improve your golf game. And there is no area of the game where your time and effort will yield more pay-off (in every way!) than with short putts. Confidence in this area will take pressure off of the rest of your golf game, and consistent success will drive your opponents crazy!

Here's a statistic you can use: for golfers at every level putting represents approximately 40% of their strokes per round. Putting offers a premium improvement opportunity because of the relatively low correlation between proficiency and physical strength/flexibility/coordination. With regular and focused work on the practice green, most golfers can shave 3-5 strokes off of their average golf score.

I’d suggest that you do what the pros do and divide putting into two separate categories: lag putts, and short strokes. A different mindset applies to each. Let’s tackle the short ones today.

Short Strokes
A short stroke is any putt that starts close enough to the hole that distance should not be a factor even if you miss. Practice a stroke especially for the job at hand. One of the most common causes of misses is deceleration due to last-second “result anxiety.” A good image is to picture a croquet wicket spanning the width of the hole. Make a stroke that will put the ball through the wicket. Remember this niblick of truth: 100% of putts that stop short of the hole will NOT end up in the hole.

Something that I struggle with is how to simulate the pressure of that "must make" short putt on the practice green. First, let’s define short. Even the average PGA tour golfer has to get inside 3 feet before he can expect to make 95% of his putts. The pros make just 50% of their 8 foot putts, and only 30% of their 12 foot putts, so make your improvement targets achievable.

Try placing five golf balls in a “must make” circle around a hole - preferably one with some slope. Don't let the session end until you have holed out all five balls. When you've mastered that, you can increase either the number of the balls or the distance from the hole (or both). You will be limited by your patience and the time you have available, but trust me, that final putt has a way of becoming quite real. But a key component of this drill is to build confidence, not frustration, so be sure you are starting with an achievable distance.

For more specific analysis of your putting performance, go to www.ShotByShot.com.

Putt for Dough

We have been discussing the positive impact that getting up & down can have on your golf scores. To get the ball up & down, you generally need to do two things pretty well: 1) select and execute the short shot that gets you on the green; and 2) make that putt!

Sounds easy, but is it? In a recent study of US Open qualifiers, how close do you think they had to be to make 100% of their putts? Can you relate to 1 ½ feet? These top performers make just 50% of their 8 foot putts, and only 30% of their 12 foot putts! Hopefully this makes you feel better.

One of the many things that the pros do that is worth imitating is to divide putting into two separate categories: lag putts, and short strokes. A different mindset applies to each.

Lag Putts
A good rule of thumb is to think of any putt outside 6 feet as a lag. From 6 to 12 feet you want your putts to reach the hole and have a good chance to go in, but you will only frustrate yourself if you expect to make them all. Direction and distance are both important, but in general, the farther away you are from the hole, the more priority you should place on distance.

The mind-set should be much the same as with a chip shot – if you miss, you want to leave yourself in a great position to make the next putt. Feel is key. Concentrate on the line first, visualize the putt, and focus on getting a feel for the distance and weight of the stroke. Then set up on the line and make this feel your swing key through impact.

Short Strokes
The short stroke is any putt where you are close enough to the hole that distance should not be a factor even if you miss. Practice a stroke especially for the job at hand. One of the most common causes of misses is deceleration due to last-second “result anxiety.” A good image is to picture a croquet wicket spanning the width of the hole. Visualize a stroke that will put the ball through the wicket.

If you practice nothing else, you should be working to build skill in your short stroke. Confidence in this area will take pressure off of the rest of your game, and consistent success will drive your opponents crazy!

For more personalized analysis of your putting performance and improvement progress, go to www.ShotByShot.com