Sunday, February 21, 2010

2' Feet 11" will Haunt Villegas

I am really enjoying watching the PGA Tour players compete in the WGC Accenture Match Play event. It is the format that the majority of us enjoy and we can empathize and think along with the big boys. There is no question in my mind that they play differently. The normal, stroke play events require a much higher degree of control and game management because even if not a winner, every stroke is worth a great deal of money. I also believe that the change in format puts a different type of pressure on the world's best players and cite as an example the short putt missed by Camillo Villegas on the 23rd hole of his match against Paul Casey. Let's call it 3 feet that would have ended the match and placed Camillo in the finals. Instead, the hole was halved, and he went on to lose the match. We have all done it - I know I have.

Perspective on Villegas, his Putting and 3 Footers

His World Ranking: 24
In 2009, Villegas won $1.8 million in 21 events. His best finish was 3rd, with four Top-10 finishes, ten Top-25's and only two missed cuts. Very consistent! If we are to put any stock in the Tour stats, he managed all this despite being a below average putter.
  • His Putting Average (Putts/GIR's) - 2009 Rank 116. Everyone who reads Niblicks of Truth knows I hate this old stand-by tour stat, and why. Please just trust me - ignore it.
  • Total Putting - 2009 Rank 191: While not up to ShotByShot.com's putting analysis standards, this stat is so much better than putts/GIR. It is a weighted average of the player's rank in each of six new ShotLink putting stats. I won't bore you with the details but it is an array of putting ranges from 3 to 25 feet, and 3 Putt Avoidance from 25 feet. It may not be perfect, but Camillo's 191 Tour ranking is definitely not good.
3 Footers
One of the Tour stats with which I cannot argue is "Putts from 3 Feet." In 2009, Camillo missed only 7 in 88 rounds. He was successful with 637 of his 644 attempts - 98.9% This seems fairly good but it ranked him #146. Evidently the average of the PGA Tour would have only missed 6 - 99.19%. Further digging revealed that 3 players were perfect from 3 feet last year:
  1. Steve Stricker: 662 of 662 in 81 rounds
  2. Bob Heintz: 557 of 557 in 59 rounds
  3. Ian Poulter: 442 of 442 in 59 rounds (no wonder he is in the finals of the match play)
How about the rest of us from 3 feet? The percentages below represent 3 feet and closer so not exactly the same as the Tour numbers above. I will run the specific 3 foot # soon, but for now you will get the point:
  • 10 handicap - 94%
  • 18 handicap - 90%
Consider that we amateurs face at least ten putts in the 3-foot range each time we play. They are worth practicing - just ask Camillo Villegas!

2 comments:

  1. Peter: I would love to know the stats for 4 foot putts because at that point mid handicappers start missing quite a few. Interesting article!

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  2. Nick,
    OK here you go: 4 foot putts:
    Luke Donald (#1): 97%
    Tour Avg.: 91%
    15 - 19 Hcp. golfer: 68%

    You are correct! Avg. golfers fall off very quickly @ 4 feet and up.
    Thanks for your interest and comment. Peter

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