Wednesday, September 1, 2010

How hard is it to WIN on the PGA Tour?

Just ask Martin Laird!  While he did not have a great round on Sunday of the Barclays, he did everything required to secure the win until the unfortunate 3-putt on the final hole.  How unfortunate?  Here is some perspective on the relative difficulty of "just 2-putt" from a mere 23 feet.

Distance control
A few years ago I conducted a study of some of the top players on the PGA Tour  (Tiger, Phil, VJ, +) to learn that on average they lag to approximately 7% of their starting distance.  This means that a 40 foot putt would be lagged on average to just inside 3 feet.  If Martin had performed to their level, his 23 foot putt would have finished inside 2 feet.  Not so!  Martin's lag effort, and we all know that it was intended to be a lag, flew 7' 1" past the hole - 30% of his starting distance - OPPPS!  No worries, he had made four putts of seven feet+ already, including a 7' 6" putt for birdie on the prior hole to carry the one shot lead into the 18th.  

I have written previously that I recommend a 10% lag rule for amateurs.   First, there is the obvious skill difference and second, the math is way easier.  What would Martin Laird give to have achieved this result of just outside 2 feet?

More on the 20 to 25 foot range
After 75 rounds this year, Martin is slightly better than the Tour average from this distance.  He averages 1.87 putts, so 1-putts with a greater frequency than he 3-putts.  The Tour avg. is 1.90.  By contract, the 18 handicap will 3-putt over four times as often as 1-putt to avg. 2.12 putts from this range - 3-Putting 17% of their opportunities.

The Tour average for 3-Putts from this range is 2.4% - just over 2 out of every 100 opportunities.  Martin Laird was slightly better than this average PRIOR to the Barclays but is now 2.9% or 3/101.

We have heard it said hundreds of times: "The hardest thing to do is just 2-putt" - How true it is!