Monday, April 12, 2010

Congratulations to Phil - and Me!

Why did I pick Phil to win the Masters?
For the past couple of years I have been the auctioneer of an annual Masters Auction run by a group of friends. I always do some research so that I can toss out niblicks of wisdom on key golfers as they come on the "block" to add some spice to the bidding. This year my research confirmed what I have always believed - that the Masters is by far the toughest of the majors to win. What I mean is that before the first tee shot flies, the list of potential winners is already relatively small.

Why? Because in the past 20 years only one player has won that did not already have at least one victory on the PGA Tour or had already won a major. That player was Ian Woosnam in 1991. Woosie had no US wins but a strong winning record on the European Tour. By contrast, the British Open was won in 2003 by Ben Curtis with only 1 Top 25 finish to his name and in 2004 by Todd Hamilton, with no other wins before or after.

Next, I noticed that 10 of the last 20 Masters have been won by a prior winner or by Tiger (4 wins) or Phil (2). So the odds are 50/50 that the winner will already own a green jacket - a very exclusive club. If I narrowed my pick to prior winners but ruled Tiger out, the winner was fairly evident. Phil is by far the best of those that are still active and have the game that could win.

It was a fun Masters to watch, but then they all are. I forgot to mention that just before the auction started I took a share of the host's action and strongly urged him to buy Phil. Since he took my advice, I will have a nice dinner on Phil, my bit of research and some good luck!

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