How good is Jordan Spieth's Distance Control?

Read my article in this month's Masters issue of Golf Digest

Were the Copperhead greens really that slow?

It is always more fun to watch an event when I have played the course AND when bogeys are more common than birdies as was the case in this week's Valspar Championship.  I find myself anguishing along with the contenders over the difficult drives, approaches, short game shots - how about those buried lies - and putts.  Speaking of putts, I cannot remember seeing greens as slow in a PGA Tour event.  10.5 was mentioned but they looked more like 9 and Justin Leonard said 9 on the telecast after his round.  So what effect did the slow greens have on the field?  What would you expect?

Fewer 3-Putts?

Since one does not have to worry about their lags getting away from them this would make sense.  YES!  3-Putt Avoidance was 19% better for the Valspar field than the 2016 Tour average (2.2% vs. 2.79%).  This says that the Valspar field 3-Putted on 2.2% of their greens of 1.6 times in 72 holes vs. the Tour avg. 2.0 3-Putts in 72 holes.

More 1-Putts? 

Players can be more bold?  Also YES but not by as much as one might think.  The Valspar field

1-Putted 40.1% of their greens vs. the 2016 Tour average 38.5%.

There was ONE major difference in Distance control:  

Lag Putts (20+ ft.) holed or hit past the hole.   The 2015 Tour average for this distance control stat was 67% of lag putts had a chance to go in and, on average, 7% found the hole.  The Valspar field only got 47% of their 20+ ft. lag putts to the hole and only 5% went in.  That is a major difference.

With the majority of lag putts left short, the % 3-Putts from 20+ ft. was exactly the same as the 2015 Tour average - 8%. 

Finally, the dramatically slower greens did not produce a single 4 or 5-Putt.

Putting: Two important but different skills

Putting is 40% of the game at virtually every handicap level.  The higher the scoring level, the more putts are needed, but the ratio of # Putts/Score holds steady.  That is, up until the 20+ handicaps when the pickup holes, with no putts recorded, slightly lower the percentage.

So what are the two skills?

1.  Short putts:  Line and accuracy are crucial inside 10 feet.  Practicing a solid setup and alignment routine will help insure consistent accuracy.

2.  Distance control:  In longer, lag putts, the most important skill to develop is feel because distance is more important than line.

How much to practice each skill

A study of putting distances faced by the average golfer (15-19 handicap) reveals that practice time should be split 80% short putts / 20% distance control.  That's because 83% of total putts during an average round occur inside 10 feet (this is all putts:  1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd …).  When looking at just first-putt opportunities outside 10 feet, 88% fall between 11 and 40 feet; only 12% at 41+ feet.  

  

To practice your distance control, I recommend spending time gaining confidence in your 30 foot lag.  You can then make all other lag putts a function of that stroke.  It is very important when playing away from home to set up 30 foot tees and putt back and forth (I use two balls) until that distance becomes almost automatic.  When you hit the first green, you will be ready to stroke the first putt with confidence.

Work with your instructor on the specific practice drills for each skill, but your goals should be:

Short putts:  Increase your 50% Make distance – the distance from which you hole 50% of your putts.  See where you are on the graph below.

Distance control:  Work to expand your 2.00 Putt distance – the distance from which you two-Putt the vast majority, but one and three-putt with the same frequency on the rest.  Again, see where you fit on the graph below and work to extend your 2.00 distance.

You will need a way of accurately recording and analyzing your putting distances.  I recommend ShotByShot.com.  Self-serving?  Perhaps, but it's the only place I know where you can easily and accurately get the information you need to determine your exact strengths and weaknesses, and why. 

Determining your putting distances? I recommend that you build this into your pre-shot putting routine.  When you reach the green, you need to mark your ball and walk to the flag.  Simply count your steps.  For the longer putts, get to the midpoint - check the break - and count your steps back to your ball.  Then double the number.  Finally, know the distance of your average stride – heel to heel.  I am 6’ 1” and my average, walking stride is 28 inches.  I have to stride out a bit to average 3 feet, something that I actually practiced in my living room until it became automatic.

What is your 2.0 Putt Distance?

In studying performance at all levels for more than 25 years, I have found that there are two distinct skills needed to become a good putter:  Alignment and Distance Control.  Proper alignment is especially critical in the 1-Putt range.  Distance control is critical to avoid 3-Putts from longer range.  It is important to practice both skills.  I recommend spending 60% to 70% of your practice time on the former, or putts inside 10 ft., with special emphasis on 3, 4 and 5 footers.  I carry the SeeMore Triangulator in my golf bag, and do not let a week go by during the season without using it to sharpen my short putt alignment. 

I like to measure skill levels in these two important skills in terms of the 50% Make distance - the distance at which a player consistently makes 50% of their putts; and, the 2.0 Distance - the distance from which a player averages 2.0 putts.  Simply stated, from your 2.0 distance, you 2-Putt the vast majority.  But when you don't, you 1-Putt and 3-Putt with the same frequency. 

The graph above displays the 2.0 Putt distances for an array of handicap levels.  The 50% Make distances are:

Tour - 8 ft.,  0 Hcp - 7 ft.,  5 to 15 Hcp - 6 ft.  20 Hcp - 5 ft.

Over your next few rounds try to get a feel for where your skills stand.  If you would like to know precisely, log on to www.ShotByShot.com and register for our FREE Trial.  We have been providing Strokes Gained Analysis to all golfers since 1992. 

What makes a great putter?

Brandt Snedeker ranked #1 in Strokes Gained Putting for the 2012 PGA Tour year.  Quite an accomplishment to be considered the best of the best.  I decided to see if I could find the key to his putting prowess - was there something that clearly separated Brandt from the rest?  My conclusion:  Two things stand out.
     1.  Consistency
     2.  Distance control

Consistency
In 18 events covered by ShotLink, Brandt recorded a negative Strokes Gained total in only five (28%).  While negative, these five poor putting events were not horrible.  The average of the five was only -.325 (only giving up .325 shots per round to the field) and his worst was only -.64.  

Brandt's other 13 events were positive SG numbers and for the year Brandt averaged .860 strokes gained on the field.  This profile is the picture of putting consistency.

But what exactly does he do to achieve this high level of consistent performance?  The answer does not exactly leap out of the Tour stats.  Speaking of the ..., there are NINE putting stat categories and 110 individual putting stats.  Each is expressed in a number or percentage with a ranking for perspective.  Further, there is a high degree of compaction which causes the rankings to sometimes be misleading.  That said, rankings in the TOP-20 on Tour are good in ANY stat.  The Tour average tends to be around 75.

Brandt's ranking for the year in a few stats stood out and lead me to my conclusion:

• 1 Putts 10-15 feet - rank 4 (this range consistently shows up in the Winners on Tour)
• 1-Putts > 25 feet - rank 8
• Putts made over 10 feet - rank 3
• Putts made over 20 feet - rank 4  

I believe that Brandt's high level of success in the four stats mentioned above comes from a great confidence in his distance control and the relative absence of fear about the length of the next putt.

Distance control
In 2000 and 2001, when Tiger was the dominant player on tour, I did a study of his distance control as it related to the other top players at the time.  I found that they all tended to average 7% of their start distance (40 foot start ==> inside 3 feet = 7%).  I also found that Tiger set himself apart by getting a higher percentage of his long distance lag putts to or past the hole.

ShotLink makes this exercise quite a bit easier and precise.  A study of Brand Snedeker's 2012 putts of 25 feet and greater revealed a similar result:

• His overall average lag distance - 6.5%
• 2-Putts - 5.8%
• 3-Putts - 14.2%

In both instances above (2 and 3 Putts), Brandt got 63% of these long putts to or past the hole.  I can't help but think of the annoying refrain:  Never up, never in!  Obviously, Brandt has taken it to heart.

Finally, we amateurs should take heed and work on distance control.  I like to focus on 10% of the start distance as my goal and highly recommend it.  First, we don't do this for a living and second, the math is much easier.

What were the odds of a playoff at Bay Hill?

Three  things struck me as I enjoyed Arnie's Invitational at Bay Hill.  I will address them in reverse order of importance:

1.  Where's Waldo & Tiger?

I cannot remember watching a Tiger-included event in which he was not seen or mentioned in the final round, regardless of where he was in the field.  This week was no different than most others as we saw quite a bit of Tiger on Saturday despite his position 9 or 10 holes ahead of the leaders.  Could his  conspicuous absence on Sunday have anything to do with the driver that he let fly in anger on Saturday?  That's my guess as the King is all about tradition, gracious and gentlemanly conduct and what's good for the game - club throwing - NOT!  Doubt his influence?  NBC recently partnered with the Golf Channel - Arnie helped found and fund the Golf Channel. 

2.  Worst closing round EVER! 
Since I have been recording and analyzing the Tour Winners on ShotByShot.com (early 2009), this 280 (-8) is the highest 4-round total that I have seen for a non-major.  Partially due to the course - good job, Arnie - but also just poor play.  Martin Laird's final round +3, 75 should not have been good enough to win but for a major stumble by Steve Marino and the final-hole bogey by Marc Leishman.  In any case, it made for good drama - much more fun to watch than a multiple shot victory.

3.  What ARE the odds of Laird's 2-putt on 18 from 87 feet? 
Johnny Miller gave us his estimate of the odds of a 3-putt/playoff:  40% This would mean 2-putt/Win:  60%.  I was struck by how little credit was given to the great lag putt that followed Johnny's prediction - 3' 7" - especially with the win on the line.  One of the on-course commentators chimed in with the note that Martin had 3-putted from close range (23 FEET) on the final hole of the Barclays only to subsequently lose in a playoff.  Thank goodness Martin could not hear this great comment...  I was thinking it as I wrote about this in my 9/1/2010 entry:  How Hard is it to WIN on the PGA Tour?  

What are the odds?
Hard to say because the Tour does not provide detail on putting stats by range outside 35 feet, but here is what I was able to get:
a.  For all putts greater than 35 feet in 2011 (8 events) the Tour averaged 2.11 putts and Martin Laird was slightly better at 2.02 (ranked T17).  Not very helpful!

b.  The average distance from which the Tour will experience a 3-putt following a GIR is:  41 feet.  Again, Martin is a bit better - 45 feet.  Again, little help with our 87 foot challenge?

So much for the Tour, I decided to break it into pieces.  From my study of distance control on the PGA Tour, I learned that the Top-5 players' average lag from 20 feet and more was to within7% of the start distance.  From this study, I determined that 10% was an acceptable lag. Outside that could be considered an ERROR.  Martin Laird had 8 opportunities of 20 feet+ in his final round.  Five were distance control busts (13% to 19%), but three were winners (0% - holed, 2% and the final 4%).  Overall, his distance control for the final round was an acceptable 10%.

If we assume two lag results for Martin on #18 from 87 feet of 7% and 10%.  He would be left with putts of 6' 1" or 8' 6" respectively.  What are the odds of 1 vs. 2 putts from those distances?  Back to the Tour:

YTD 2011 - % 1-Putt
Lag to %     Distance (ft.)     Laird       Tour Avg.
   7%                     6 ft.               54%           70%
  10%                    9 ft.               56%           46%
  
Good job, Johnny Miller!  Your odds of a playoff (3-putt) of 40% were spot-on.  Given a good or acceptable lag, according to my study, Martin would have had been in a playoff in the 46% to 44% range.  Fortunately for Martin, his lag was OUTSTANDING - 3' 7" or 4% - well done!

Finally, as I have said before, I recommend that the rest of us use the 10% Rule when evaluating our lag opportunities.  If nothing else, the math is so much easier!

Putting: "Distance is the most important part"

I have been preaching that putting is the most distance-driven part of the game for over 20 years.  The quote in the title comes from Jack Nicklaus during the Sunday telecast of the Honda Classic.  His point, that regardless of the distance of the putting opportunity, the correct distance is the most important factor in success.  Nice to hear from the game's #1 all-time player.  I arrived at this conclusion by studying the data while Jack obviously based it upon his experience (73 Tour wins and 18 Majors) and his meticulous study of the game.  Remember Jack, with caddie Angelo, was the first to pace off the distance of his approach shots.  What golfer today, at any level, would attempt an approach shot without knowing the distance to the yard?  Sergio purportedly demands his distances to the half yard.  But how many golfers, even on Tour, know the distance of their putting opportunities?

Y.E. Yang does!  Dottie Pepper remarked, during the Honda telecast, that YE paces off his putts and it was evident in his pre-shot routine on the 10th, 11th and 14th holes.  No wonder YE putted so well in last week's Ascenture Match Play and again in the Honda and has climbed to #29 in the World Rankings.  Another prominent player that paces off his putting distances is Phil Mickelson.  Phil also practices distance control diligently from 40, 50 and 60 feet and credits this with his recent Masters win.

Why is DISTANCE so important?

The average PGA Tour player will make 50% of their putts at 8 feet and average 2.0 putts or better up to a distance of 40 feet.  Beyond 40 feet they will 3-putt more often than 1-putt.   These numbers fall off fairly dramatically as skills diminish.  Our data tells us that the average 10 handicap -  a much better than average golfer - will make 50% at 5 feet and average more than 2.0 putts once outside 20 feet.  Distance and distance control are extremely important and I recommend that every serious golfer learn to build this function into their on-course and practice routines.  I have included "Hints on Tracking the Distance of your Putts" in the FAQ's and More section of the website but here are the cliff notes:

1.  Don't wait until it is your turn to play.  Start the process of evaluating your putting opportunity as you approach the green.  Even from as far as 50 yards or more, check the overall slope of the terrain that will influence your putt.

2.  When you mark your ball, you must either walk past the hole to your ball or walk from your ball to the hole to remove the flag.  Simply count your steps.  For longer putts, get to the mid-point between your ball and the hole, check out the slope and then count your steps back to the ball and double the result.  Your distance calculation will be close enough.

3.  Check the distance of your stride (from heel to heel).  The standard male stride is about 25 - 27 inches, NOT 36.  You may have to stride out to attain a 3-foot length.  I practice with a yard stick at home (while watching golf).  Next time you watch Tiger on TV, notice how his caddie strides out when pacing off yardage - and Steve is a big man.

Successfully build the distance function into your putting routine and you will become a better, more confident putter. 

Perspective on Appleby's 59 and Overton's 4-foot Miss

I was able to watch last weekend's PGA Tour event as it happened and was glued to Stuart Appleby's every move.  I have long found him to be a compelling, classy player and was rooting hard for both the 59 and the win.  Jeff Overton made it interesting but I felt showed his immaturity (and not-yet-ready-to-win attitude) with his mini-tantrum after missing the 4-foot birdie putt on the 17th hole.  Ian Baker-Finch was generous in agreeing that the ball hit something because I watched the replay a couple of times and saw no bump or change of direction.  It looked like a nervous "get this over with" pull.  We all know that stroke.  Jeff's "not my fault" reaction was way over the top and he clearly never recovered until his desperation putt on 18 - which was impressive.   More on the unfortunate 3-putt later.

The Old White Course
As I analyzed the performance data, I was reminded of a great friend's story:  While on a joint family vacation with another close friend, the two Dads snuck out for an early round while their families slept in.  They had a great match and both played exceptionally well, recording 68 and 69 respectively on a really tough golf course.  Back in the hotel, Dad #1 enthusiastically relayed the story of the two sub-par scores to his family.  His son, a young athlete and golfer, barely looked up from his TV show to say:  "It must be an easy course!"  

I do not want to detract from Appleby's great performance BUT the scoring and data could lead one to say: "It must be an easy course!"  Appleby blew away my 70% Rule with a combined average of 80%, but the field's 65% came closer than I have ever seen to the magic 70% Rule for Winners on the PGA Tour.  For more on this see my June 10th post - Last Time on 70% Rule.  The major difference was in the important GIR %.  Appleby hit 79% but the field was close behind at 77%.  This is considerably above the Tour Avg. of 65%.  The relative length of the golf course (only 7,020), and damp, windless conditions made the greens both accessible and receptive.  I hope that next year the weather and course conditions will better protect this great old design.

The 3-Putt    
Jeff Overton was on track to tie for the lead when he hit the par-5, 17th hole in two.  A 2-putt for 49' 4" was all he needed to go to the short par 3, 18th tied with Appleby.  His lag was appropriately described as "a difficult 2-putt" by David Feherty.  More than the length, it was down-hill, side-hill to the hole.  Jeff's lag was a good one to leave the ball 3' 8".  Why?  Because my study of Top-10 performers on the PGA Tour revealed that they tend to lag within 7%* of the original distance.  In this case anything inside 4 feet qualifies - well done on the first part Jeff.  Here's the problem, and why I don't accept that Jeff was blameless in the subsequent miss.  He had already missed a 3' 6" putt in the 3rd round.  Could that have been a nagging, negative memory as he stood over a putt that he needed to  have a chance for his first win on Tour?

Finally, the Tour average for holing 4 foot putts is 91%.  Jeff's YTD average is slightly better at 94% but, tragically for him, a dismal 60% for this event.  For perspective, the average 10 handicap makes 75% of their 4 footers.  

*On distance control expectations, I recommend that we amateurs think in terms of 10% lag distances for two reasons:  First, we are a long way from the Tour level and second, the math is considerably easier.

Putt for Dough

We have been discussing the positive impact that getting up & down can have on your golf scores. To get the ball up & down, you generally need to do two things pretty well: 1) select and execute the short shot that gets you on the green; and 2) make that putt!

Sounds easy, but is it? In a recent study of US Open qualifiers, how close do you think they had to be to make 100% of their putts? Can you relate to 1 ½ feet? These top performers make just 50% of their 8 foot putts, and only 30% of their 12 foot putts! Hopefully this makes you feel better.

One of the many things that the pros do that is worth imitating is to divide putting into two separate categories: lag putts, and short strokes. A different mindset applies to each.

Lag Putts
A good rule of thumb is to think of any putt outside 6 feet as a lag. From 6 to 12 feet you want your putts to reach the hole and have a good chance to go in, but you will only frustrate yourself if you expect to make them all. Direction and distance are both important, but in general, the farther away you are from the hole, the more priority you should place on distance.

The mind-set should be much the same as with a chip shot – if you miss, you want to leave yourself in a great position to make the next putt. Feel is key. Concentrate on the line first, visualize the putt, and focus on getting a feel for the distance and weight of the stroke. Then set up on the line and make this feel your swing key through impact.

Short Strokes
The short stroke is any putt where you are close enough to the hole that distance should not be a factor even if you miss. Practice a stroke especially for the job at hand. One of the most common causes of misses is deceleration due to last-second “result anxiety.” A good image is to picture a croquet wicket spanning the width of the hole. Visualize a stroke that will put the ball through the wicket.

If you practice nothing else, you should be working to build skill in your short stroke. Confidence in this area will take pressure off of the rest of your game, and consistent success will drive your opponents crazy!

For more personalized analysis of your putting performance and improvement progress, go to www.ShotByShot.com