What edged Justin Rose to #1 at Doral?

 

You = Justin Rose @ TPC Blue Monster - Doral

According to my general rules for Winners on the PGA Tour, Justin should have come up short.  He averaged only 63% when matched up to my 70% Rule and totaled only 16.6 next to my Stack-18.  I have not written about the latter yet but will soon.  Briefly, the Winners achieve a total of 18 when adding the following three key stats:

1. GIR's/per round (11.75)
2. Successful Scrambles (Non-GIR's x Scrambling %) - (6.25 x 76% = 4.75)
3. Strokes Gained - Putting for the event - (.114)

 Justin's Total = 16.64 

What did Justin do well?

Long Game - He kept the ball in play.  Justin had no penalties on a course that had its share of penalty opportunities.  The Tour does not give us penalty data but I saw a bunch during the telecast and the other players that I studied each had some. 

Short Game - Justin had 26 Chip/Pitch shots in his four rounds.  He got the ball on the green 25 times (20 / 77% finished within 5 feet of the hole) with an overall average putting distance of 3' 7".  The single short game shot that missed the green was on the 72nd hole where Justin was faced with a very difficult pitch over bunkers to a green that "ran away" toward the water.  Only needing to get down in two, he allowed the ball to barely roll past the pin and stop a foot or so off the green.

By way of perspective, the prior 2012 Winners that I have studied, have achieved average putting distances of 6' 7" - obviously very good.  Boy, is that a significant 3 feet!  The Tour average 1-Putt percentage jumps from just under 60% at 6' 7" to just under 90% at 3' 7".  It is no wonder that Justin's Strokes Gained Putting stat was so mediocre (he barely bested the field) .  It wasn't that he was missing putts that he should make, it was that he was rarely far enough from the hole for his 1-putts to rack up any meaningful strokes saved vs. the model.