How Tough Will Bethpage Black Be?

As we are about to watch the second US Open at Bethpage Black, I bet a lot of viewers will be wondering: “How much more difficult is this golf course that what my group plays on weekends?”

Golf Digest picked up on this last year and started the US Open Contest wherein four celebrity amateur golfers attempted to break 100. This contest grew out of a comment by Tiger Woods that the previous year’s course (Oakmont) was so hard that “… a 10 handicap couldn’t break 100 there.” Tiger was right – the 10 handicap shot 114. Tiger is clearly the best at his craft, but is he also clairvoyant? I’ll try to describe why this was a very safe prediction for Tiger to make.

Personal experience

In 2002, I played Bethpage Black on the last day before it closed for US Open grooming – boy, do I have some good friends. My group consisted of four low handicap golfers ranging from 2 to 5. We approached the round with great confidence, each anxious to see how well we would do. Five+ hours later, we emerged battered and exhausted and were all shocked at how brutal and relentlessly difficult we found the course. One of my friends said it perfectly: “I have never played so many par 5’s in my life!”

What makes an Open so hard?

Let’s do a statistical comparison of US Open venue, Bethpage Black (BPB) to the average courses played by ShotByShot.com’s male subscribers (AVG):

Total Yards / Par

· BPB: 7,426 / 70 = 106 yards per par stroke

· AVG: 6,400 / 71.5 = 89 yards per par stoke

Course rating: (The score that the scratch golfer should shoot)

· BPB: 78 (an educated guess as I have not seen it published)

· AVG: 71.5

Slope rating: (The relative difficulty for the “average” golfer)

· BPB: 155 (another educated guess but with confidence)

· AVG: 131

What do these numbers mean?

Chew on these niblicks: Bethpage Black is at least 6.5 shots harder for the scratch golfer and 11 shots harder for the bogey golfer. This means that the average male 18 handicap golfer that averages 92 with his group on weekends would average 103, and I believe this may be significantly understated.

In addition to the obvious difference in length, there are several other important conditions (that most of us will, thankfully, never see) to consider:

1. The typical fairway width of 30-40 yards is cut in half for a US Open setup (30 - 40 yards).
2. The rough height is generally twice the height that we amateurs face (from 2.5 – 3 inches and up in places vs. 1 to 1.5 inches at home).
3. Finally, the greens at an Open are usually very firm and fast making them unreceptive to shots from the rough, not to mention difficult to putt.

While you enjoy watching the professionals struggle for pars in a US Open, bear in mind how much more difficult the conditions are than what we typically play on weekends. Finally, if you ever get the chance to test your game on a US Open prepared course, get ready for the shock of your golfing life.