The Long Game in Golf: How Good is Good Enough?

OK, enough about Henrik Stenson’s long game. Let’s talk about Average Joe’s (or Josephine’s) long game. They stand up on every tee with a (wo)manly driver in hand, heads filled with thoughts of hitting the golf ball farther and straighter than ever before. This can make the tee shot much more difficult and stressful than it needs to be. Think about it – the tee shot in golf should be the easiest shot on the course. First, the lie is always perfect. And second, the target (fairway) is very unspecific and much less tied to distance and direction than any other shot.

How many times per round do you hit your driver? Or more to the point, how many times do you choose something other than a driver off the tee on a par 4 or 5 hole? Here’s a niblick of truth: Did you know that less than 10% of golfers consistently hit their driver farther in the fairway than their 3-wood? (And trust me, there is an inverse correlation between driver success % and handicap.)

If you really want to improve your golf score, perhaps it is time to re-think your driving club selection. If tee shots are a problem for you then your card is probably showing more than its share of double and triple bogeys. (DUH?) Here are a few statistical niblicks about the game played by the single-digit handicappers that Mr. or Ms. Average Golfer should be emulating:

• They record double bogey or worse in 1 out of 10 holes
• Over 70% of their double bogeys or worse start with a problem tee shot
• Their odds of recording a double bogey or worse plummet to 1 out of 35 holes when the tee shot is successful!

The point is that simply getting a tee shot in play not only creates the opportunity for good things to happen, it dramatically reduces the likelihood of disaster. The bottom line is that if you are setting realistic goals, the golf tee shot should not need to be great in order to be "good enough" to achieve your goal.

A Better Way to Track Long Game Improvement

How Good Was Henrik Stenson’s Long Game Last Weekend?

He may have won the recent TPC golf tournament, a “mini-major.” But according to the PGA Tour’s stats, Henrick's long game did not rank in the top 10 in the field. I strongly disagree! Here are his long game statistics as displayed on PGA Tour.com:
Driving Accuracy – T11 (73.2%, or 10.24 of 14 fairways hit)
Greens in Regulation – T12 (68.1%, or 12.25 of 18 GIR's)

What’s wrong with these stats?

As I've commented previously, the Fairways Hit stat is by far the weakest performance barometer of all traditional golf statistics for two reasons. First, it ignores driving distance. But most importantly, it ignores the differences between the relative severity of the fairways missed. By this measure, a drive hit OB counts the same as a "miss" sitting up nicely in the first cut. That is so wrong!

Greens in Regulation (GIR’s) is the best of the “old school” golf stats because it means two positive things. First, the long game was efficient enough to achieve the green in regulation. Second, it identifies that there was a birdie opportunity. Its shortcoming is that it does not measure or describe what happened on the holes where the golfer did not hit the green in reg. On the PGA Tour, this conservatively leaves out 33% of the holes and, by the way, the holes where not-so-good things happened. For most amateurs, this golf stat is really a waste of time for tracking improvement because the average 15 to 19 handicap golfer hits only 4 greens a round.

A much better Long Game barometer

I put Henrik Stenson’s long game to a better test – his Long Game Efficiency Index (LGEI - patent pending). This simple test adds up his total Long Game strokes (all strokes from outside 50 yards), divides that number by his GIR’s to arrive at his Efficiency Index.
What makes this statistic better? Because it combines the best of what GIR’s tell us with everything that happened in the long game on all 18 holes. As such, penalties, flubs and miss-hits on the non-GIR holes are all counted.

Henrik’s LGEI in the 2009 TPC:
Total Long Game Strokes per round: 33.7 / 12.25 GIR’s = 2.75 LGEI

Now, to put this into perspective, the hypothetical “perfect” long game round would be:
Long Game strokes 36 / 18 GIR’s = 2.00 LGEI

Winners on the PGA Tour:
Long Game strokes 33.5 / 13 GIR’s = 2.58 LGEI

The BEST I have seen – Tiger Woods in his 2006-07 streak of Seven Consecutive Wins:
Long Game strokes 32.75 / 13.75 GIR’s = 2.38 LGEI

Bottom line, I’d bet that if we calculated a LGEI for every player in last weekend’s TPC event, we would see Henrik’s Long Game ranking jump to #1 or very close to it. His performance was remarkably efficient. Think about it – on a tight Pete Dye golf course full of hazards, he had a total of two Long Game mistakes in 72 holes. One drive resulted in such a poor position that he was forced to simply advance the ball, and one approach shot found a water hazard.

I agree that it can be painful to re-live penalties, flubs and mishits, but here's a niblick of truth: owning up to them and committing to reducing them is critical to improving your golf game. For the most complete picture of the good, the bad and the ugly aspects of your golf game, log on to www.shotbyshot.com.

Here's What's Wrong with Golf Stats

Is it fair to say that something is wrong with traditional golf statistics when Henrik Stensen, the guy who blew away the field to win last weekend's TPC tournament, had lukewarm rankings in the major performance areas tracked by the Tour? Here's how he did:

• T 11th - Fairways Hit
• 18th - Driving Distance
• T 14th - Putts per Round
• 32nd - GIR's
• T 12th - Putts per GIR
• T37th - Sand Saves

Stensen's "best" performance came in Fairways Hit, also known as Driving Accuracy, and arguably the least credible of the traditional stats. Think about it - as long as they both end up in the fairway, this stat gives equal credit to a 150 yard blooper and a 295 yard rocket. Or it would have you thinking that blooper in the fairway is preferable to a rocket that ends up off the fairway in the first cut of rough. Or even more distorting, this stat rates a tee shot that lands in the water or out of bounds as no worse than the 275 rocket that is just in the first cut. Neither one is in the fairway, but which one would you rather play???

Stensen's 2nd "best" performance came in Greens in Regulation, which I believe is by far the most useful of the old-world stats. A YES tells us something decisively positive about that hole, and as we all know, we tend not to achieve a "personal best" GIR's/round on a day that we're playing bad golf.

Bottom line, as flawed as they are, I wonder why the PGA Tour continues to compute, publish and rely upon these outdated "indicators" of performance.

For a complete analysis of your golf game calculated the RIGHT WAY, go to www.ShotByShot.com

Putting for Dough- Part III

As we move away from the cup, distance control becomes more and more important to putting improvement for golfers of all levels. This is because the odds of a 1-Putt drop outside 10 feet, even for Tour players. At the same time the dreaded 3-Putt looms larger and larger.

Let’s focus on the value of distance control outside 10 feet. The range from 11 – 50 foot is where 95% of lag opportunities occur (only 5% occur outside 50 feet). We all face at least 10 first putt opportunities in this range every round. Since your likelihood of 1-putting is low, your goal should be to make sure to leave yourself in a position to 2-Putt.

The 10% rule
A reasonable goal on every distance control or “lag” opportunity should be to leave the ball within 10% of the starting distance. For example: From 30 feet, envision a 3 foot circle around the hole and try to leave the ball within the circle. As you develop better feel, aim for a spot below the hole. A study of players on the PGA Tour revealed that they consistently lag the ball to within 7% of their starting distance. I recommend the 10% rule because most of us are not Touring caliber and the math is much easier.

How often should you 3-Putt?

Handicap Ranges:
PGA Tour .6 x per round
0-5 .8 x
6-10 1.1 x
11-15 1.4 x
16-25 2.1 x
26-35 3.4 x

Practice a 30 foot stroke
I recommend pacing off 30 feet on your practice green and practicing lagging a few balls back and forth between tees placed at this distance. This 30 foot distance is smack in the middle of the 11 to 50 foot range. Once on the course, you can measure and weigh all lag opportunities as a percentage of your 30 foot stroke.

For a Complete Analysis of Your Game, log on to: http://www.shotbyshot.com/

More on Putting for Dough

For most golfers, putting represents 40% of their strokes per round. Putting offers a premium improvement opportunity for all golfers because of the relatively low correlation between proficiency and physical strength/flexibility/coordination. With regular and focused work on the practice green, players at almost any level can shave 3-5 strokes off of their average golf score.

Something that I struggle with is how to simulate the pressure of that "must make" 3-footer on the practice green. Try placing five golf balls in a circle around a hole - preferably one with some slope. Don't letting the session end until you have holed out all five balls. When you've mastered that, you can increase either the number of the balls or the distance from the hole (or both). You will be limited by your patience and the time you have available, but trust me, that final putt has a way of becoming quite real. A key component of this drill is to build confidence, not frustration. Remember this niblick of truth: the pros make just 50% of their 8 foot putts, and only 30% of their 12 foot putts, so make your improvement targets achievable!

For personalized analysis of your putting performance, go to www.ShotByShot.com