Short Game: When is a missed green NOT an ERROR?

Shot By Shot was the first statistical program to recognize the importance of errors in the short game and enable our users to record them 25 years ago.  When we launched a simplified, web version of the program in 2005, we had users record when their short game shots were successful (hit the green) or missed the green (errors).  The subsequent putting distance recorded revealed the exact level of success but we did not know the exact extent of the mistake.    The percentage of misses (or errors) has been a valuable component in our short game handicap determinations - a proprietary balance of three factors:

1. Average putting distance when the green was hit;
2. % of attempts hit close (to within 5 feet for Chip/Pitch, 8 feet for Sand);
3. % Errors (shots that missed the green).  

The PGA Tour data does not include errors or missed greens in the 409+ ShotLink stats.  I had my my programmer extract these important pieces of data from ShotLink for use in my work with Tour players.  As one can see above, in 2014 the PGA Tour player on average MISSED greens with 7% of their Chip/Pitch shots (within 50 yards of the hole) and 11% for Sand shots from within the same range.  If you think these numbers, when viewed as errors, seem high - I agree. 

A post-round discussion with my genius programmer led us to the solution of this dilemma.  Why not see what percentage of the missed greens actually took the players more than 3 strokes to hole out?  Three strokes from a short game situation is not a SAVE, but it is certainly not a stroke lost. The save %'s are:  Chip/Pitch - 65% and Sand - 50%.  But four or more strokes to hole out is definitely an ERROR.

Once the programming was done, the answer confirmed that "These guys really are good!"  In 75% of their missed greens with Chip/Pitch attempts, and 73% of missed Sand shots, the Tour holes out in 3 strokes or less.

How does your game compare?  Just stay tuned.  Now that we have been collecting score by hole since last October, we will be able to exactly match our new Tour calculations.  I plan to wait until we have a full year of new data but am very anxious to see the results.

  

Furyk's Short Game Tames Copperhead

Certainly not the most difficult golf course played on the PGA Tour, the Copperhead at Innisbrook is at least in the top third. I have had the pleasure, but not quite from 7,340. I found it difficult overall and the greenside complexes and short game shots interesting, to say the least. Mr. Furyk may have benefited slightly from the soaking that the course took during the event but I am still impressed with his short game performance which, by my analysis, was the difference between winning and NOT.

I compared every facet of Jim Furyk's game to my PGA Winner's Profile and he was comparable across the board but four strokes better around the greens. No, it was not better putting. He simply hit the ball consistently closer to the hole. With 18 Chip/Pitch and 5 Sand shots, here are Jim's average putting distances and % saved vs. my 2009 Winners Profile:

• Chip/Pitch Shots - Avg. putting distance 4.6 feet vs. Winners @ 5.6 feet. That is a very important foot! Furyk saved: 15 (83%) vs. Winners: 71% (call it 13).
• Sand Shots - Avg. putting distance 5.2 feet vs. Winners 9.6 feet. Jim saved 4 (80%) vs. Winners: 56% (call it 3).

That is where I came up with the 4 shot difference. For perspective, here is how the average 15 - 19 handicap golfer would have fared, and forget about the relative difficulty of the course or the pressure of an event:

Chip/Pitch Shots:

• Avg. putting distance: 14 feet
• % Saved: 25%
• % Errors: 19%

Sand Shots:

• Avg. putting distance: 14 feet
• % Saved: 13%
• % Errors: 33%
  

Short Game: How Close is Close?

My last article highlighted the importance of eliminating short game errors from our golf rounds. Building on that, here’s more diagnostics on short game performance. Traditional golf stat programs have you evaluate your short game by counting “Saves,” or the percentage of opportunities that you get up and down. Certainly getting up and down is always the goal, but as a statistic it can be misleading. This is because it mixes two important parts of the golf game – short game shots and putting. If you are just tracking Saves, you could be masking issues (or excellence!) in either your chip/pitch or putting skill.

At ShotByShot, we believe the proper way to evaluate short game ability is to measure the average putting distance after the short game shot, and calculate the % of opportunities that are successfully hit to within 5 feet.

Chip/Pitch Shots - How Important?
The answer for any golfer depends on the number of opportunities faced in each round. Long game performance directly affects the number of chip/pitch opportunities because more greens-hit-in-regulation means fewer short game shots – but that’s a topic for another day.

Here are some basic statistics from the ShotByShot database to help put your short game skill in perspective:


These stats will tell you whether or not your Short Game represents an improvement opportunity, or if your precious practice and lesson time (and $$$) should be spent elsewhere.


For a Complete Analysis of Your Game, go to: http://www.shotbyshot.com/