A Quick Test of Golf Tee Shot Accuracy

As I have stated previously, ‘Fairways Hit’ is one of my least favorite of the traditional golf statistics. This is because it oversimplifies the issue by asking for a true or false answer to what should be a multiple choice question. This stat would be meaningful if it were always true that hitting the fairway was better than not – but it isn’t! And the real problem is that much more information is needed about a tee shot that misses the fairway before it can be determined a mistake. Think about it: this stat does not differentiate between a tee shot that ends up 250 yards out in the first cut of rough and a drive that goes OB. Is that a valid measurement of golf performance?

A better way
The data that we have gathered over 18 years of analyzing the golf game at ShotByShot gives us a better way to look at this issue. A study of our extensive database, where golfers have always recorded the position of every shot along with a rating of its relative difficulty, revealed five basic types of results that follow a missed fairway from the tee:

LIGHT ROUGH
HEAVY ROUGH
NO SHOT
PENALTY (1 Stroke: hazard or unplayable)
XX PENALTY (Stroke + Distance – OB or Lost)

We applied the TEST described below to each of the handicap levels in our database to determine the approximate cost, in stokes, of the missed fairways. You can use this test to see the approximate strokes that you are losing per round. You can also compare your results to your handicap group to determine whether this is a strength or weakness of your golf game.

Try this test

Step #1
In your next few rounds, track your missed fairways. On a typical golf course you will have 14 driving opportunities on the par 4 and par 5 holes. On a blank line on your scorecard, rate each missed fairway on the scale of 0 – 4: LIGHT ROUGH = 0; HEAVY ROUGH = 1; NO SHOT = 2; PENALTY = 3; XX PENALTY = 4.

Step #2
At the end of each round, add up the points and divide the total by 2. This number will approximate the number of strokes that your missed fairways cost you in that round. Average a few rounds see how your average strokes lost per round relates to your handicap group.

For more specifics on the strengths and weaknesses of your golf game relative to yor handicap, go to www.ShotByShot.com

An 'Approach' to Practice

Here are a few 'niblicks' on Approach Shots:

• An Approach Shot = an attempt to hit a green from 51 yards or more.
• Our statistical database tells us that the average golfer has 20 approach shot opportunities per round. But wait – how can this be right? Wouldn’t there have to be more than 18 holes of golf to make this true? Sadly, NO! The average golfer experiences the frustration at least twice a round of a first approach attempt that leaves them with yet another attempt, still not within 50 yards of the hole.
• The average golfer’s (first) approach distance is about 140 yards from the flag.
• The average golfer's approach shot success rate – the percent of greens they hit – is just 33%.

Better approach shot performance is clearly a great improvement opportunity for the average golfer. Pushing the average number of approach shots per round below 20 into the teens is not a lofty goal – but any progress in this area will translate into lower scores and an improved handicap.

What should you work on?
Spend your time on shorter approach shots. 60% of your total approach opportunities will fall in the 91 – 180 yard range. But our analysis tells us that your approach success rate – shots that hit the green – will fall off markedly outside 150 yards. I recommend spending your limited practice time (and/or lesson time if you are working with a pro) gaining confidence in controlling your distance and accuracy in relatively close range – 91 to 130 yards. As your confidence and success grows, you can expand your distances.

What about longer approach shots? As you work toward shorter approach shot mastery, I have two recommendations for longer approach shots:

1. Adjust your expectations

a. Visualize a large target. This will reduce the pressure you feel and reduce tension.
b. Aim away from trouble. Years ago a top touring professional confessed to me that his “…only goal when faced with a long-iron approach shot was not to make a mistake.”

2. Go hybrid! If you've not already replaced your long irons with hybrids, do it now. These newer generation weapons are designed to make the longer, more difficult approach and advancement shots much easier.

For more specific information about the strengths and weaknesses of your golf game, go to www.ShotByShot.com.

Good Luck, Max!

My friend, Max Adler, Associate Editor at Golf Digest, is contending today in the U.S. Open Local Qualifier at Misquamicut Golf Club in Rhode Island. Max selected Misquamicut as his venue because he fired a 67 there last summer. We had a fun session recently in which we worked on a hole-by-hole course strategy for today's round. Hopefully it will help him score at least as well as he did last time. I wish him all the best today.

Max has co-written my last three Golf Digest articles (heavy emphasis on the "written,") and is a user of the ShotByShot.com golf game analysis system. Max is writing an online diary of his quest for the "Black Ring" at Bethpage. He was kind enough to give ShotByShot a plug in a recent journal entry:

http://www.golfdigest.com/magazine/usopencontest/2009/04/2009usopen_adler6

What really won the Texas Valero Open for Zach Johnson?

Here are Zach Johnson's “key statistics” according to the PGA Golf Tour:

Driving Accuracy: 66.1% = T 29th
Driving Distance: 295.8 = 47th
(It could not have been his driving?!)

Greens in Regulation: 76.4% = T 10th
(So much for his Long Game?)

(Maybe it was putting?)
Putts per GIR: 1.764 = 37th
Putts per round: 28.3 = T 27th
(Not if one believes these numbers!)

With these mediocre performance statistics, how on earth did Zach win this golf tournament?

A different perspective of the four rounds as seen through SHOT BY SHOT patented golf game analysis reveals this niblick of truth: the consistency and efficiency of Zach’s Long Game clearly won the day.

Driving
While Zach missed an average of 4.6 fairways each round, his misses were in fairly good spots from which he still had reasonable, if not good, opportunities to accomplish his next goal. Zach made only one true “mistake” – on the 10th hole in the final round he drove the ball into a place from which he could only advance the ball back into play.

Greens in Regulation
Zach averaged 13.75 GIR’s per round which is very good and slightly above our profile of other Winners on the PGA Tour.

Long Game Efficiency Index (LGEI, patent pending)
When we add up Zach’s long strokes (50 yards and out) and divide them by his GIR’s, we get an LGEI of 2.38. This is better than our “Winners” profile and equal to Tiger’s numbers recorded during his impressive 2006-07 win streak – to date the best I have seen.

But wait, there is more:
The greens were firm and fast and they were playing in the Texas wind – it was difficult to keep the ball on the putting surfaces. Zach had nine instances where his golf ball finished just off the green and almost all were putt-able, and he holed two of these. In six out of nine cases Zach’s ball, while off the green, was within 30 feet of the cup and definitely inside 2-putt range. If we count these six as GIR’s for the purposes of our LGEI, his index drops to 2.14. This is by far the best that I have seen and very close to the perfect “score” of 2.00.

Bottom line, Zach won the Valero Open because he managed his long game strokes nearly perfectly. He made only one error and consistently hit the greens or very near the hole.

Trouble Shots in Golf: Take your Medicine!

OK, so we all understand the importance of avoiding mistakes on the golf course. We also understand that, as Dr. Bob Rotella says, "golf is not a game of perfect," and mistakes do and will occur. The SHOTBYSHOT.com statistics tell us that the "Average" golfer (15 to 19 handicap) will have four trouble shots per round. If they were all played conservatively - in other words, getting the ball safely back in play - think of the strokes that could be saved. When a golf mistake happens in such a way that you have an opportunity to recover - in other words, manufacture a shot that might save the hole - here are some niblicks of advice...

Manufactured shots involve the use of a golf club in a way that is extraordinary, or outside its conventional purpose. An example would be a punch out from under a tree, or a high intentional slice to get around and over an obstacle. Since you have already made one mistake to get there, your key objective should be to avoid compounding your error. Job #1 is to get the golf ball safely back in play, so do what you can to accomplish that goal.

This may sound silly, but assessing your options from a golf ball's eye view is always a good idea. When practical, seeing the proposed flight of the ball from as close as possible to ground level will give you a different and better perspective on the opening you think you see from a standing position. Here's the chance you've been looking for to impress your friends with your Camillo move. But if you emerge from the round with dirt on your knees and branches in your hair, take this as a clue to where your golf game needs improvement.

If you are "lucky" enough to be considering an array of trouble shot options, a good rule of thumb is to pick the one that involves a close to a normal golf swing as possible. Many of the more creative shots involve something other than a conventional address position and/or a natural swing path. Only attempt such a manufactured swing when there are no reasonable options. If logistics or ego make it impossible to swing normally, try to build a positive image and feel for the shot by taking at least two realistic rehearsal swings. Then use this image as your swing thought during the execution of your trouble shot. Good luck!