Why Nick Watney Won: Is it Tiger's New Swing?

I warned that I would keep an eye on Tiger's progress.  What I found of interest, in this week's Cadillac WGC Championship, was the  continued talk of Tiger's struggle with his "new" swing.  Shouldn't this translate into a struggle with his Long game?  NOT SO!  Granted, there were a couple of notable, very UN-Tiger-like drives.  One was on the 2nd hole, round 2 - a full, 3-metal that traveled only 122 yards and was featured in an embarrassing graphic that showed Tiger's ball all alone 100+ yards behind the next shortest drive.  OK, Tiger did not drive the ball very well (only 6.5 Fairways a round) BUT he avoided the big mistakes and recovered exceptionally well.  

Tiger averaged 13 GIR's (tied 4th), and was better tee-to-green (more efficient)  than the winner (Nick Watney).  Their ShotByShot.com Long Game Efficiency Indexes* were 2.57 vs. 2.82 respectively.  This means that Tiger hit more GIR's and in fewer long game shots than Nick - Efficiency!   (The hypothetical perfect round is 36 Long strokes/18 GIRs = 2.00.  For more on this see:   A Better Way to Track Long Game).  Incidentally Tiger, the Winners average 13 GIR's with no more than one ERROR per 4-round event, as you did here.  So you are close. 

*US Patent # 7,766,737 

As the graph above shows, the critical difference, AND why Nick Watney won, was his great short game  and putting performance.  Further, if this event is representative, this is where Tiger needs to return to form.

How good or bad was it?  Watney vs. Tiger

Chip and Pitch Shots:

     # Attempts/Avg. distance - 16 /3.9 ft.  vs.  23 /8.7 ft.

                                % Saved  -  75%                70% (Good, from those distances)      

Sand Shots:

     # Attempts/Avg. distance - 13/6.4 ft.  vs.  7/11.7 ft.

                                % Saved  -  69%                43%

Nick's short game was the best I have seen.  His average putting distances were considerably better than our PGA Tour Winner's Profile.  On average his Chip/Pitch shots were 2 feet closer and 2.5 feet closer from the Sand. 

Finally, sick of reading about Tiger (like UJ!), let me know.  For that matter, let me know what would be of interest?

Thanks,

Peter

PSanders@shotbyshot.com 

Putting: "Distance is the most important part"

I have been preaching that putting is the most distance-driven part of the game for over 20 years.  The quote in the title comes from Jack Nicklaus during the Sunday telecast of the Honda Classic.  His point, that regardless of the distance of the putting opportunity, the correct distance is the most important factor in success.  Nice to hear from the game's #1 all-time player.  I arrived at this conclusion by studying the data while Jack obviously based it upon his experience (73 Tour wins and 18 Majors) and his meticulous study of the game.  Remember Jack, with caddie Angelo, was the first to pace off the distance of his approach shots.  What golfer today, at any level, would attempt an approach shot without knowing the distance to the yard?  Sergio purportedly demands his distances to the half yard.  But how many golfers, even on Tour, know the distance of their putting opportunities?

Y.E. Yang does!  Dottie Pepper remarked, during the Honda telecast, that YE paces off his putts and it was evident in his pre-shot routine on the 10th, 11th and 14th holes.  No wonder YE putted so well in last week's Ascenture Match Play and again in the Honda and has climbed to #29 in the World Rankings.  Another prominent player that paces off his putting distances is Phil Mickelson.  Phil also practices distance control diligently from 40, 50 and 60 feet and credits this with his recent Masters win.

Why is DISTANCE so important?

The average PGA Tour player will make 50% of their putts at 8 feet and average 2.0 putts or better up to a distance of 40 feet.  Beyond 40 feet they will 3-putt more often than 1-putt.   These numbers fall off fairly dramatically as skills diminish.  Our data tells us that the average 10 handicap -  a much better than average golfer - will make 50% at 5 feet and average more than 2.0 putts once outside 20 feet.  Distance and distance control are extremely important and I recommend that every serious golfer learn to build this function into their on-course and practice routines.  I have included "Hints on Tracking the Distance of your Putts" in the FAQ's and More section of the website but here are the cliff notes:

1.  Don't wait until it is your turn to play.  Start the process of evaluating your putting opportunity as you approach the green.  Even from as far as 50 yards or more, check the overall slope of the terrain that will influence your putt.

2.  When you mark your ball, you must either walk past the hole to your ball or walk from your ball to the hole to remove the flag.  Simply count your steps.  For longer putts, get to the mid-point between your ball and the hole, check out the slope and then count your steps back to the ball and double the result.  Your distance calculation will be close enough.

3.  Check the distance of your stride (from heel to heel).  The standard male stride is about 25 - 27 inches, NOT 36.  You may have to stride out to attain a 3-foot length.  I practice with a yard stick at home (while watching golf).  Next time you watch Tiger on TV, notice how his caddie strides out when pacing off yardage - and Steve is a big man.

Successfully build the distance function into your putting routine and you will become a better, more confident putter. 

SLOW PLAY is alive and its poster boy is J.B. Holmes

After some research, I determined that JB’s glacier-like pace in the quarterfinals of the Accenture Match Play Championship was not simply a failed attempt at gamesmanship.  As I looked for material on the Tour’s Slow Play rules online, I found more than a few articles or blogs that singled out JB Holmes as a culprit.  It was mentioned in the telecast that he is know for his “deliberate” pace but I think that he single-handedly forced the change in the format from the usual 36 holes to an 18-hole final.  Bad weather was the stated reason but I believe the decision was made when JB was 5-up on Bubba Watson after 10 holes and the Tour realized that, should he make the finals, 18 holes would require the normal time allotted for 36. 

If you did not see it, JB Holmes could do nothing wrong and was killing Bubba Watson – 5 up after 10 holes.  Match over right?  Not so fast – Ha Ha.  JB hit an errant drive on the 10^th hole and slowed down dramatically.  Peter Jacobson quipped:  “He’s gone into a 4 corner stall.”  In spite of it, JB won the 10^th and it only got worse.

As I watched, thankfully on DVR, I thought that he was purposely stalling in an attempt to alter Bubba’s tempo and charge.  I know I have run into more than my share of opponents that have this strategy in their competitive arsenal – I loath it AND them and have learned how important it is to ignore it and rise above it.  Thankfully, Bubba was undaunted and I believe spurred on by it to win.  Further,  JB’s unusual slow play, and the apparent lack of confidence and focus, had to play a large part in his undoing.

How slow was he?

For perspective, the PGA Tour allows 40 seconds per shot and the LPGA Tour has recently stepped that up to 30 seconds per shot.  It is a bit more complicated than that but those numbers set the standard for how long it should take from the time it is determined to be a player’s turn for him/her to hit the shot.  Obviously, it behooves players to have their “homework” done and be ready to play before it actually becomes their turn.  If so, 40 seconds is more than enough time, or is it?

JB’s abuse of EVERYONE’s time was so much the story that I put a stopwatch on him and Bubba.  Thanks to my DVR, I was able to time eight of JB’s normal shots.  To be fair, I selected only those that were not “trouble” shots but were either tee shots, shots from the fairway following good drives and one approach shot from the rough in a JB-described “good lie.”  I also needed to be able to capture the start time when it was clearly JB’s turn to play, which further limited the number.  For these eight, JB averaged an abysmal 70 seconds including the quickest at 58 and worst 154 seconds.  Remember, these were not the really demanding ones.  I’m not counting the 8:13 it took to take two drops on the 18^th hole or the 8:42 to drop on the play-off 10^th.  Incidentally, the time to execute his shot following both of these drops exceeded 60 seconds.   

  

On the other hand, Bubba Watson is anything but a dawdler.  A typical tee shot took 20 seconds from the time he pulled the club from his bag.   One of his slowest times involved a trouble shot through a bush on the play off hole that took 29 seconds from when it was determined to be his turn.

Finally, to my amazement, on the 19^th tee and after Bubba had hit a drive into trouble, JB altered his routine and let fly in only 36 seconds?  Unfortunately, the result was terrible and cost him an unplayable penalty and the match.  JB, please get your routine under control and in much less time!  You, the game and those of us that enjoy it will be better for it.

 

Where is Tiger's Game Now?

There has been quite a bit written, and discussed on TV, of late on the state of Tiger's game.  Not to be left out, I decided to compare his most recent three rounds from Torrey Pines to a representative sample that I have of his 2009 performance (33 rounds).  The recent sample is only 3 rounds but it is all we have since ShotLink only captured those rounds on the South course.

As the graphic above shows, Tiger's game is off everywhere EXCEPT PUTTING!  This goes against the pundits but bottom line Tiger's performance on the greens, when analyzed the ShotByShot.com way, - by DISTANCE - is not bad and equivalent to that of his remarkable 2009 season.  Further, Tiger's putting performance at Torrey Pines was as good as Bubba Watson's.  We all saw Bubba make some heroic putts down the stretch to secure his victory, but his total body of  work was not up to  that of our typical PGA Tour Winner.  Our 2010 Winners averaged a +5 Putting handicap while Bubba was at +2.  Why?  He made three putting ERRORS (3-Putts from inside 40 feet).  Tiger had only two 3-Putts, but both were outside 40 feet (44 and 54 feet).  Further, with all Bubba's much-touted work on the 10 foot and in range, he only made 5 of 9 (56%) in the critical 6 to 10 foot range.  Tiger made 7 of 14 (50%) and our 2010 Winners 62%.

Driving - Tiger's decline in performance obviously involves missed fairways.  His Fairways Hit was down from 9.6 in 2009 to 6.7.  More important are the ERRORS, or drives hit into NO SHOT positions that require advancements to return to normal play.  Tiger had six such errors in the 3 Torrey Pines rounds.  This compares to less than one driving error per 4-round event in 2009.

Long Game - From where he drove the ball, Tiger actually recovered fairly well to average 11 GIR's.  This is a far sight from the 12.9 GIR's in 2009.  We have consistently seen that averaging 70% GIR's (12.6), while avoiding driving errors, is a must for Tour Winners.  Witness, this was obviously Bubba's strenght as he averaged 14 GIR's with only one driving error.

Short Game - Tiger has long been renowned for having one of the best short games ever BUT, not so much at Torrey Pines.  He averaged eight short game shots per round (Chip/Pitch & Sand combined) and his numbers were a long way from his usual high standard:

• Avg. Putting Distance:  10.5 feet vs. just outside 6 feet in 2009.
• Errors (shots missing greens):  3 (12%) vs. 5% in 2009.
• % Saved:  44% (thanks to fairly good putting) vs. 69% in 2009.

It will be interesting to see how quickly and how far Tiger comes back to his form.  I have no doubt that he will but also find it hard to see him winning six events in a given year as he did in 2009.  No fault of his but there are just too many young stars on Tour and a new crop emerging every year.  further, they don't appear to be intimidated by anyone or anything.

How hard is it to WIN on the PGA Tour?

Just ask Martin Laird!  While he did not have a great round on Sunday of the Barclays, he did everything required to secure the win until the unfortunate 3-putt on the final hole.  How unfortunate?  Here is some perspective on the relative difficulty of "just 2-putt" from a mere 23 feet.

Distance control

A few years ago I conducted a study of some of the top players on the PGA Tour  (Tiger, Phil, VJ, +) to learn that on average they lag to approximately 7% of their starting distance.  This means that a 40 foot putt would be lagged on average to just inside 3 feet.  If Martin had performed to their level, his 23 foot putt would have finished inside 2 feet.  Not so!  Martin's lag effort, and we all know that it was intended to be a lag, flew 7' 1" past the hole - 30% of his starting distance - OPPPS!  No worries, he had made four putts of seven feet+ already, including a 7' 6" putt for birdie on the prior hole to carry the one shot lead into the 18th.  

I have written previously that I recommend a 10% lag rule for amateurs.   First, there is the obvious skill difference and second, the math is way easier.  What would Martin Laird give to have achieved this result of just outside 2 feet?

More on the 20 to 25 foot range

After 75 rounds this year, Martin is slightly better than the Tour average from this distance.  He averages 1.87 putts, so 1-putts with a greater frequency than he 3-putts.  The Tour avg. is 1.90.  By contract, the 18 handicap will 3-putt over four times as often as 1-putt to avg. 2.12 putts from this range - 3-Putting 17% of their opportunities.

The Tour average for 3-Putts from this range is 2.4% - just over 2 out of every 100 opportunities.  Martin Laird was slightly better than this average PRIOR to the Barclays but is now 2.9% or 3/101.

We have heard it said hundreds of times: "The hardest thing to do is just 2-putt" - How true it is!