Friday, June 3, 2011

More clarity in PGA Tour stats

I am quite excited about the Tour's recent implementation of the Strokes Gained putting statistic.  Since 1999, Shot By Shot's putting analysis has featured this method of evaluating putting which we call 'Strokes Lost or Saved.'  As I have been saying for these many years:  "It is the only accurate means of evaluating putting because it includes every putting opportunity and its distance."  For more on exactly what Strokes Gained is all about, see my recent post:  At Last, Putting Analysis we can trust from the Tour 

In terms of accurately evaluating relative performance and being able to point to exactly what separates the winners from the others, the Tour now has an accurate summary stat for Putting, a facet that represents 40% of the game.  My research shows that the remaining 60% can ALMOST be covered by two other Tour stats:  GIR's and Scrambling.  

Greens Hit in Regulation (GIR's) - It's simple - the age-old long game barometer.  Its flaw:  It does not tell what happened, and how bad was it, on greens not hit in regulation. 

Scrambling = The percentage of holes where the green was not hit in regulation but par or better was achieved.  At least at the Tour level, this stat fills in most of the puzzle; however, it still leaves out what happened, and how bad was it, on those OTHER holes (Greens NOT Hit in Regulation where bogey or worse was the result).

I say "At least at the Tour level,..." because Scrambling is a fairly useless stat for the majority of amateur golfers.  First, it is widely misunderstood. Golfers believe it to be saving par from green-side opportunities NOT every green missed in regulation, regardless of how and why.  Second, they hit so few GIR's and "Save" so few of the opportunities, it becomes meaningless.

What would work?        
If the Tour were to adopt my patented Long Game Efficiency Index, almost all of the gaps in the analysis of the entire game would be filled in.  It would then have highly accurate summary stats for evaluating the Long Game and Putting.  Scrambling would cover most of the short game.  The one small missing piece would be ERRORS in the Short game, such as sand shots left in or sculled out of green-side bunkers, and similar errors from chip/pitch situations.  I would say, close enough for now so let's try it.

Once the Tour makes this leap, it will only need to reform its current method of ranking players in each skill.  More on this soon... 

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