Putting IS for Dough!

The Snedeker - Hahn final round pairing at Pebble was refreshing as Jim Nantz remarked: "...they smiled their entire way around the course."  One can only hope that their example sets a new trend on Tour.  As likeable as Brandt Snedeker is, James Hahn gives him an honest run...  His now famous dance on the 16th green at Scottsdale was not only artfully done but seemed genuinely spontaneous and joyous.  I actually watched his post, 3rd round interview online this week - I never do that.  Again, he is refreshingly happy to be there.  I learned that his nick name is "The Asian Brad Pitt."  Good to know!  James, you just may be my new favorite player on Tour.

Given that it was your first final-round share of the lead James, you made a very good showing.  Too bad you ran into a putting buzz saw.  The relatively small, Pebble greens were designed to be one of the defenses of this relatively short course.  That is short by today's standards @ 6,900+, par 72.  The greens were firm and fast and statistically difficult for all but Brandt, who blew the field away with 3.185 Strokes Gained on the greens in his final round.  Brandt did this with a 3-Putt from only 22 feet on the 9th hole.  That green alone set him back just over a full stroke.  Were it not for this blemish, Mr. Snedeker would have been in the rare air of 4+ Strokes Gained on the field.  Phil Mickelson did this to Tiger last year posting 4.78 Strokes Gained in his final-round to Tiger's -5.288 (Strokes Lost).  For more on this and an explanation of Strokes Gained Putting see:  (How-good-is-strokes-gained-putting?)

Let's put these Strokes Gained numbers into perspective:

1.  Brandt Snedeker was the #1 putter on Tour in 2012.  He averaged .86 Strokes Gained on the field over the entire year - IMPRESSIVE!  No wonder he won the FedX Cup!

2.  The 25 Winners that I studied in 2012 averaged 1.40 Strokes Gained per round.  Typically, three of their four rounds were gaining 1 to 3 strokes on the field and most winners survived a clunker - a slightly negative putting round.
   
The best 4-round total was 3.001.  Keegan Bradley @ Firestone.  All 4 rounds were plus numbers highlighted by 5.537 final round - the best total and the best single round I have seen.

The worst 4-round total:  -.21  Rory McIlroy @ Crooked Stick.  Incredibly, Rory lost strokes to the field in 3 of his 4 rounds.  It was; however, a much reduced field - the semi-finals of the FedX Cup.

The worst single round that I saw among the winners was Tiger who survived a 3rd round -2.649 on his way to victory at Muirfield.  Not to jump on Tiger, but his aforementioned -5.288 (against Phil at Pebble last year) is the worst single round I have seen.  Bear in mind, I usually only study the winners and players with whom I am working.

So, James Hahn's -.566 Strokes Gained final round does not seem all that bad.  However, when Stacked up against Brandt's positive 3.185, simple math reveals 3.75 of the five stroke difference in their scores.  They both hit 14 Greens and each made a single bogey.  The difference, Brandt rolled in EIGHT birdies while James made only THREE. 

Are "These Guys" getting better or just smarter?

I just noticed an interesting trend among the Tour Winners that I have been analyzing this year.  With one exception (Tiger @ Torrey Pines) they are hitting more Greens-in-Regulation than the winners from the same events last year.  Of all the old school stats, I have always held this one in high regard.  It represents two positives:  First, the long game has been good enough to get there; and second, it is a birdie opportunity.  I estimate that, on average, each missed GIR on Tour carries a cost of .75 strokes (-30% birdie chance + 44% bogey chance = 74% rounded to 75%). 

I decided to compare the entire field in each of the first five events (graph above) and sure enough EVERYONE is hitting more greens.  But why?

Driving the ball better?  I don't think so.  

   Accuracy is about the same:  56.2% vs. 56.6% for 2012 vs. 2013 respectively. 

   Distance is actually down a bit this year:  289 vs 292 at this point in 2012.

Proximity to Hole is better:   The Tour average YTD is almost two feet closer:  35' 5 vs. 37' 3' (2012).  Remember, even shots missing the green are included in this number so it is not pure putting distance.

Could the answer be improved equipment - the combination of slightly improved irons and balls?  I apologize that I do not have the answer but I will keep watching to see if the trend continues.

One last point of interest.  The scoring is also lower for the field this year vs. last year at the same point:  69.8 vs. 70.5 = .7 strokes lower.  My .75 average cost of a missed GIR comes very close to that number.  Difference in GIR's:  13.3 - 12.5 = .8 x .75 = .6   Close enough!  

Perhaps it is as simple as a growing awareness of the value of the GIR?   SMARTER!

Why didn't Josh Teater WIN at Torrey Pines?

First - More Blog Posts?

Just returned from the PGA Show in Orlando.  I had the pleasure of connecting with quite a few of my instructor/clients.  I am most gratified that they all: a) read this blog avidly; and b) expressed an interest in more posts.  I discussed this with my great friend, Henry Brunton, (now a bona fide instructor/coach Rock Star) as he echoed this sentiment.  Understanding the work that goes into each blog post, Henry suggested posting weekly, but making three of every four much shorter.  As I do with all of Henry's wise advice, I will take it.  Further, if YOU have a statistical topic that you would like me to explore, please let me know!

What about Josh Teater?  

Tied for 2nd, Josh finished six shots behind Tiger.  Just try to find those six shots in the stats...

Using some of my favorite statistical barometers [Stack-18 (explained) and the 70% Rule (70% Rule explained)], Josh's performance was clearly better than Tiger's.

I can only conclude that Josh sprinkled more than a few of those pesky ERRORS into his game - the ones that cost strokes but disappear in the Tour stats.  As the Tour's Shot Tracker data also disappears from its website at some point each Tuesday night, I cannot answer my own question.  But true to my word, it certainly makes for a much shorter blog....

I really did look for clues:

1.  Missed Fairway Percent - Other:  (The % of missed fairways that result in a location other than the fairway or rough.)

Josh had one of these "Others."  If it were an OB/Lost, it would account for at least 2 of the 6 lost shots but we'll never know.  BTW, this could also have been a par 4 drive that reached the putting surface.
According to the stats, Tiger had NONE of these Others but I don't trust this stat because on the 15th hole in the 4th round, Tiger drove into an "Unknown" location and incurred a penalty (drop).  If that's not an Other, what is?

2.  Proximity ARG - (How close to the hole on average for all shots starting within 30 yards of the edge of the green.)
I generally like this stat as it tends to correlate fairly closely to ShotByShot.com's short game proximity.  Josh ranked 53rd at 8' 2" average proximity.  This compares to Tiger's 7' 1" and the field's 7' 11".  My guess: Josh made some errors in this part of his game - but again, the proof is lost in the Tour stats.

Finally, if I were Josh Teater's coach, and spent the time to go through this exercise, I would be extremely frustrated with not being able to answer the important question:  Why didn't Josh Teater WIN at Torrey Pines?     

Henley conducts How-To-Win Clinic at Waialae

In five years of studying the winners on the PGA Tour, I have not seen such pristine data that from Russell Henley's recent win at Waialae.  First, it makes my collection task much easier and enjoyable.  I actually root for my players as I follow them through their rounds and suffer along with them when trouble strikes.  As you can see from the graphic above, Russell Henley blew away my Stack-18, and on the way accomplished a number of statistical feats.  See Stack-18 Explained

GIR's:  15!  The closest that any winner came to this in 2012 was Steve Stricker's 12.75 GIR's at the Hyundai.  The only other 15 that I have seen was Martin Laird at the 2009 TPC Las Vegas.  Incidentally, these two winners also shared the unusual distinction of hitting all 18 GIR's, and coincidentally, in their second rounds.

Strokes Gained Putting:  Henley gained an impressive 3.042 strokes on the field per round, or 12 strokes overall.  Note in the chart above, the average of the 2012 winners was 1.3.  To exceed 2.0 is not uncommon, but only Keegan Bradley exceeded 3 strokes (3.001) in 2012 when he won the Bridgestone.

Errors:  NONE!  This may be Henley's most outstanding bright spot.  To put it in perspective, none of the 2012 winners avoided all errors, with the possible exception of Luke Donald whose single blemih was a 3-Putt from 50 feet - which I don't really consider an error.  Well done, Luke! 

The frequency of errors experienced by event winners that I have studied may be of interest.  I will define what I view as each error and provide the winner's frequency:

Driving:  Drive hit out of play or into a penalty situration.

One every 4.4 rounds.  The error is usually the lesser "No shot" or out of play mistake, requiring an advancement to return to normal play.  I have only seen two of the most severe driving errors (OB/Lost) among winners:  Tiger at Bay Hill and Dustin Johnson two weeks ago in Kapalua. 

Approach:  Approach shot hit out of play or into a penalty situation.   

One every 11 rounds.  This is usually a green missed in the water and is obviously course driven; however, Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar each suffered two in their wins at East Lake and TPC Sawgrass respectively.

Chip/Pitch:  Shots within 50 yards of the hole that miss the green.  

One every 2.6 rounds.  Remember, these are merely shots that miss the green and do not generally cost the winners a stroke.

Sand:  Shots within 50 yards of the hole that miss the green.    

One every 8 rounds.  

Putting:  A 3-Putt from 40 feet and closer to be an error at this level.

One every 5.5 rounds.

The frequency and severity of these errors are extremely important.  I have found that errors do far more to influence score, at every level, than do the other shots.  Obviously, the winners on Tour are at the lowest end of the scale for both frequency and the resulting severity of their mistakes.  You should see what happens as one journeys up the handicap ranks to the average golfer and higher, but that is another story.

What effect did the wind have on the 30 champions in Kapalua?

The Plantation course at Kapalua is a bomber's paradise with ample targets and large greens.  The four par 5's as well as three of the par 4's are reachable.  It is no surprise that a player like Dustin Johnson, if on his game, would win.  I found the most interesting aspect of this event to be the severe winds and their impact on performance.

The greatest impact was on putting!

Kapalua's greens are always near the top by my measure of difficulty, but were even more so this week due to extreme winds.  [For more on my measure of relative green difficulty, see my last entry:  Were the Barclays Greens Unfair?]  I look at two stats as a measure of putting difficulty:

1.  3-Putt Avoidance - the higher the number or frequency of 3-Putts, the more difficult the greens;

2.  # of Players in the field with ZERO 3-Putts - the lower the number, the more difficult...

3-Putt Avoidance

Last year the field at Kapalua was 5.04% - the highest of all the courses that I checked in my 2012 study.  5.04% means that the entire field (only 30 player/champions) averaged 3.6 3-Putts in 72 holes.  For perspective, in a typical tournament, an average field would 3-Putt twice in 72 holes.  This year the average for the Hyundai field at Kapalua was 7.47%.  The 30 champions averaged FOUR 3-Putts in just 54 holes.  Further, Dustin Johnson (the winner) had three 3-Putts.  Most PGA Tour winners have NONE, but some sneak by with only one putting blemish.

Players with zero 3-Putts

The average for the 25 courses in my 2012 study was 12 players.  In the 2012 Hyundai, only ONE player in the field escaped without a 3-Jack.  (Guess who?*)  This year's field not only had NO such lucky players, the best were seven players that had only two 3-Putts.  None of the events in last year's study had NO players in this category.

The long game was the least affected

Greens-hit in-regulation achieved by the field were almost identical from 2012 to 2013:  14.6 vs. 14.5.  Even these numbers are high as the Tour average in 2012 was 11.3 GIR's.

Finally, I thought that approach shot accuracy would certainly be affected by the high winds - I know mine is.  Not so much!  Proximity to the hole following approach shots was also very close from 2012 to 2013:  40' 7" vs. 41' 1".  Literally only six inches or less than 1% difference in accuracy in 30 to 40 MPH gusting winds.  THESE GUYS REALLY ARE GOOD!

*Bubba Watson!