Last time with the 70% Rule - Promise!

At the risk of beating this to death, allow me to crow momentarily over the success of my 70% Rule - a simple formula for what it takes to win on the PGA Tour (originally explained here). Since the beginning of tournament golf and "stats" the experts have been searching for basic summary answers for how to describe performance that matters the most - that which wins tournaments. The old standards have been displayed and discussed FOREVER:  Fairways Hit, GIR's and Putts/GIR.  While their shortcomings are many, GIR's totally trumps Fairways Hit, and Putts/GIR leaves out all the holes where there was no GIR - consider only the Winners and this ignores a third of the holes played.  No wonder they did not work.

Over the past two months I have demonstrated that my 70% Rule, when applied to the three summary stats above, clearly works.  It is not perfect because nothing simple, or summary in nature,  could ever accurately describe the complex, multi-dimensional game of golf.  That said, it is the best I have seen.  For the last time, here it is:

The 70% Rule

The overall average of the stats listed in the graphic above should be 70%.  I give each of the three equal weight despite the fact that they do not represent equally weighted parts of the game.  To the extent that one falls below the 70% mark, the other two need to exceed the 70% mark by enough to offset the deficit.

At the same time, ERRORS must be kept to three or less in a four round event.  The Errors tend to be mistakes that result in a stroke lost:

Long Game Errors:  Balls hit out of play (requiring unusual advancements to return to play), or  any penalty situation.

Short Game Errors:  Shots that miss the green AND where the total strokes needed to hole out from the original short game shot exceed three.  The "exceed 3" is a slight modification from my earlier definition.  Why? Because further study revealed that to penalize a player for simply missing the green, if they ultimately get down in three strokes is double jeopardy - the Scrambling stat already covers it by capturing it as a failed save.  An error needs to be a shot that results in a stroke lost NOT the failure to save.

Putting Errors

3 Putts or worse from 40 feet and closer. 

Unfortunately, the PGA Tour does not provide us with the ability to gauge the errors mentioned - or any errors, for that matter.  I believe that at some point they will recognize the importance of the downside of the game as every other sport has.  Imagine the analysis of baseball without  Fielding Errors and Strike Outs or football without Fumbles and Interceptions.  Mistakes have long been recognized as the difference in the outcome of the game as are the errors in golf.  For more on the importance of avoiding Errors in your game, see my article in the July 2010 issue of Golf Digest (p. 101) REDUCE ERRORS.  The article allows readers to measure the impact of their mistakes on their handicaps.

On that note, both Justin Rose and Tiger had two errors - both in the long game.  

Junior Golf is Alive and Well in Canada!

With my sincere apologies to Mike Bender, I regret that I saw nothing of Zach Johnson's victory at Colonial last weekend and even worse, did not collect his rounds for analysis and to add to my Winner's Profile - Sorry Mike!  I was not simply goofing off, I was north of the border at the Canadian National Junior Championships  - and not just a spectator.  My good friends at the RCGA paid me the great compliment of asking me to provide the performance statistic for the field of 99 players.  33 girls and 66 boys, between the ages of 14 and 18 - the best juniors from all over Canada.

The project was an extremely ambitious one and the idea of Doug Roxburgh, the Director of High Performance for the RCGA.  Incidently, who better to put in charge of fostering high performance than a proven, world class high performer.  Doug won't talk about it but I googled him to learn that he has only captured 4 Canadian Amateur, and 13 BC Amateur titles - and I was bragging about my member-guest...opps!

Doug's goal is to use the data collected for the field to set a benchmark for exactly where the best players are currently and let the analysis guide the RCGA's improvement initiatives over time.  While Doug and I were coaching players through the data entry process, Henry Brunton (Men's National Team Coach) was testing each player's club and ball speed, spin rates and attack and launch angles on TrackMan.  The combination of the on-course performance data and the sophisticated TrackMan data should set a new standard in performance analysis and I hope to team with Doug and Henry to publish our findings fairly soon - stay tuned.

It was an intense but exhilarating four days!  The players were polite and enthusiastic and seemed to really enjoy ShotByShot.  It warmed my heart to hear their good-natured banter:  "Dude, what is your Putting handicap?  Mine is a...."  The experience made the part of my heart that is "Canadian" grow 4 sizes larger.

 

Good Show, Young Mr. Spieth!

As I was enjoying the Sunday coverage of the Byron Nelson Championship, my bride came in to join me and the first words out of her mouth were: "My lord, that player looks like he is about 16 years old!"  And thank goodness that Jordan Spieth was able to avoid the truant office and participate, as he was the life and excitement of an otherwise bland event. 

I suppose one could consider the final few holes interesting.  I found them painful.  Jason Day not only tried to lose on the 18th hole but worse tried to spoil my 70% Rule for Winners on the PGA Tour (read more here). His crime was less about the sub-70% levels of his "Key Winner's Stats,"  and much more about the unbelievable number of ERRORS (7) that he committed and survived.  This anomaly  is likely attributable to the strength, or lack thereof, of the field.  Accordingly, I will say no more about the errors.

Instead, I was very impressed by the game and the obvious poise and self confidence of young Jordan Spieth.  He handled the glaring spotlight and the pressure like a winner.  I was so impressed that I decided to capture his ShotByShot data from ShotLink and run his analysis against our Winner's profile as well as that of Jason Day.  As you can see from the Key stats above, Jordan was very close.  Here's where the data tells me he needs work in order to attain his first win:

1.  Putting - His distance control was excellent, but Jordan can improve his % 1-Putts in the 4 to 10 foot range.  (Tour Winners - 69% vs. Jordan - 57%.)

2.  Short Game: Chip/Pitch Shots - Unbelievable for a 16 year old under that kind of pressure, but the Tour Winners make almost no mistakes and hit the ball even closer.  (Average Putting Distances:  Tour Winners - 5.8 ft. vs. Jordan - 7.5 ft.)  Incidentally, a sure way to improve short putting is to hit it closer on average.

Finally Jordan, keep up the great play, but don't forget to enjoy the rest of high school and especially college.  The PGA Tour will be waiting and I will look forward to recording your stats as one of its very popular winners.

 

Just how valuable are "Fairways Hit?"

I have often written about how I believe that the age-old, stat "Fairways Hit" is the worst of all of the traditional barometers.  Recently, I recommended instead that players focus more on avoiding ERRORS off the tee.  At the risk of seeming to contradict myself, I feel the need to set the record straight.  My disdain is directed more at the one-dimensional nature of this stat than at the relative importance of having an opportunity to hit a green from the fairway.  More specifically, this stat basically asks for a T/F answer to a multiple-choice question, ignoring the important differences between the relative severity of the "Misses".  It is this myopic view that renders this out-dated test of driving accuracy and effectiveness of limited value.

Every serious golfer recognizes the importance of hitting Greens in Regulation (GIR's).  This is one of the "old stats" that really does matter!  It reflects two positives:  First, the effectiveness of the player's long game; and second, a birdie opportunity.  On the flip side, each missed green speaks poorly of the long game efforts and more often than not results in a bogey or worse.  The players on the PGA Tour average 11.7 GIR's each round (or they would not be there) and I recently calculated that the difference between hitting and missing the GIR, at that level, was worth approximately .8 strokes.

With that in mind, I decided to research the relative importance of the result of the drive and its affect on the golfer's chances of attaining that desirable GIR.  I dug into my database (now 103,000+ rounds) to see exactly how important the "Fairway" has been.  I looked across a wide range of handicap levels at Driving holes (par 4 & 5 holes) where the result was a GIR.  I learned two somewhat surprising facts:

     1.  The percentage breakdowns were markedly consistent across all of the handicap ranges - so close that there was no need to display an array of handicaps.

     2.  The "Fairway" was much more important than I had assumed - over three times as important as even a "Good lie/position" in the rough (see the graph above).

Your first question will no doubt echo mine:  "How could a player with "No shot" (a position so poor that it requires an advancement to return to normal play) hit the GIR?  It took some thought but the answer:  Easy - errant drive on a par 5 into a No shot position, effective advancement shot to return the ball to play, followed by a miraculous recovery shot that hits the green.

Check how your fairways match up to your GIR's over the next several rounds.  I know that this study will make me a bit more focused on keeping it in the short grass.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. McIlroy

 

With apologies to Robert Louis... and Charles... the Quail Hollow Championship really was the Tale of Two golfers.  I was rooting for my new favorite golfer (Phil) but could not avoid getting caught up in Rory's great charge.  His -10 course record on Sunday was magical and fun to watch.  I naturally thought it would be interesting to see exactly what he did differently in the last two rounds to account for the 16 stroke difference from the first two. 

First, let's look at his all-important ERRORS:

                         1-2          3-4

Driving:             3             0

Short Game:      3             0

Putting:              3             1 (Began the 3rd round with a 3-putt from 27 feet)

Total:                 9             1

Two points:
1.  The difference of 8 Errors, could be viewed as half of the 16 stroke margin.
2.  Rory McIlroy will be the first Winner I have seen to overcome 10 Errors.

Now, the good things:

Long Game Efficiency Index*:  Rounds 1-2 = 2.78  vs.  3-4 = 1.96.  While not a full 4 rounds, the latter is the first I have seen that betters my hypothetical "Perfect" round of 2.00.   Perfect would be 36 long strokes and all 18 greens hit in regulation (36/18 = 2.00).  Rory needed only 30.5 long strokes to achieve 15.5 GIR's.  How?  He took full advantage of the two reachable par 4's and four par 5's. - 12 opportunities!  Rory was on, or close (50 yards), to 11 of these 12 reachable greens - shaving 11 long game strokes or 5.5 per round.  Bottom line, I calculate that he saved 9 of the 16 stroke difference with his long game accuracy and efficiency.

*This is our patent pending method of measuring the overall efficiency of a player's long game. For a better explanation, log onto http://www.shotbyshot.com/. 

Putting

For those of us that watched, it will come as no surprise that the vast majority of the other seven strokes were the result of a hot putter.  With only the one 3-putt, Rory made all the short ones that he should AND holed six putts from outside 20 feet, capped off by the 43 foot birdie on the final hole.