Three things struck me as I enjoyed Arnie's Invitational at Bay Hill. I will address them in reverse order of importance:
1. Where's Waldo & Tiger?
I cannot remember watching a Tiger-included event in which he was not seen or mentioned in the final round, regardless of where he was in the field. This week was no different than most others as we saw quite a bit of Tiger on Saturday despite his position 9 or 10 holes ahead of the leaders. Could his conspicuous absence on Sunday have anything to do with the driver that he let fly in anger on Saturday? That's my guess as the King is all about tradition, gracious and gentlemanly conduct and what's good for the game - club throwing - NOT! Doubt his influence? NBC recently partnered with the Golf Channel - Arnie helped found and fund the Golf Channel.
2. Worst closing round EVER!
Since I have been recording and analyzing the Tour Winners on ShotByShot.com (early 2009), this 280 (-8) is the highest 4-round total that I have seen for a non-major. Partially due to the course - good job, Arnie - but also just poor play. Martin Laird's final round +3, 75 should not have been good enough to win but for a major stumble by Steve Marino and the final-hole bogey by Marc Leishman. In any case, it made for good drama - much more fun to watch than a multiple shot victory.
3. What ARE the odds of Laird's 2-putt on 18 from 87 feet?
Johnny Miller gave us his estimate of the odds of a 3-putt/playoff: 40% This would mean 2-putt/Win: 60%. I was struck by how little credit was given to the great lag putt that followed Johnny's prediction - 3' 7" - especially with the win on the line. One of the on-course commentators chimed in with the note that Martin had 3-putted from close range (23 FEET) on the final hole of the Barclays only to subsequently lose in a playoff. Thank goodness Martin could not hear this great comment... I was thinking it as I wrote about this in my 9/1/2010 entry: How Hard is it to WIN on the PGA Tour?
What are the odds?
Hard to say because the Tour does not provide detail on putting stats by range outside 35 feet, but here is what I was able to get:
a. For all putts greater than 35 feet in 2011 (8 events) the Tour averaged 2.11 putts and Martin Laird was slightly better at 2.02 (ranked T17). Not very helpful!
b. The average distance from which the Tour will experience a 3-putt following a GIR is: 41 feet. Again, Martin is a bit better - 45 feet. Again, little help with our 87 foot challenge?
So much for the Tour, I decided to break it into pieces. From my study of distance control on the PGA Tour, I learned that the Top-5 players' average lag from 20 feet and more was to within7% of the start distance. From this study, I determined that 10% was an acceptable lag. Outside that could be considered an ERROR. Martin Laird had 8 opportunities of 20 feet+ in his final round. Five were distance control busts (13% to 19%), but three were winners (0% - holed, 2% and the final 4%). Overall, his distance control for the final round was an acceptable 10%.
If we assume two lag results for Martin on #18 from 87 feet of 7% and 10%. He would be left with putts of 6' 1" or 8' 6" respectively. What are the odds of 1 vs. 2 putts from those distances? Back to the Tour:
YTD 2011 - % 1-Putt
Lag to % Distance (ft.) Laird Tour Avg.
7% 6 ft. 54% 70%
10% 9 ft. 56% 46%
Good job, Johnny Miller! Your odds of a playoff (3-putt) of 40% were spot-on. Given a good or acceptable lag, according to my study, Martin would have had been in a playoff in the 46% to 44% range. Fortunately for Martin, his lag was OUTSTANDING - 3' 7" or 4% - well done!
Finally, as I have said before, I recommend that the rest of us use the 10% Rule when evaluating our lag opportunities. If nothing else, the math is so much easier!
2. Worst closing round EVER!
Since I have been recording and analyzing the Tour Winners on ShotByShot.com (early 2009), this 280 (-8) is the highest 4-round total that I have seen for a non-major. Partially due to the course - good job, Arnie - but also just poor play. Martin Laird's final round +3, 75 should not have been good enough to win but for a major stumble by Steve Marino and the final-hole bogey by Marc Leishman. In any case, it made for good drama - much more fun to watch than a multiple shot victory.
3. What ARE the odds of Laird's 2-putt on 18 from 87 feet?
Johnny Miller gave us his estimate of the odds of a 3-putt/playoff: 40% This would mean 2-putt/Win: 60%. I was struck by how little credit was given to the great lag putt that followed Johnny's prediction - 3' 7" - especially with the win on the line. One of the on-course commentators chimed in with the note that Martin had 3-putted from close range (23 FEET) on the final hole of the Barclays only to subsequently lose in a playoff. Thank goodness Martin could not hear this great comment... I was thinking it as I wrote about this in my 9/1/2010 entry: How Hard is it to WIN on the PGA Tour?
What are the odds?
Hard to say because the Tour does not provide detail on putting stats by range outside 35 feet, but here is what I was able to get:
a. For all putts greater than 35 feet in 2011 (8 events) the Tour averaged 2.11 putts and Martin Laird was slightly better at 2.02 (ranked T17). Not very helpful!
b. The average distance from which the Tour will experience a 3-putt following a GIR is: 41 feet. Again, Martin is a bit better - 45 feet. Again, little help with our 87 foot challenge?
So much for the Tour, I decided to break it into pieces. From my study of distance control on the PGA Tour, I learned that the Top-5 players' average lag from 20 feet and more was to within7% of the start distance. From this study, I determined that 10% was an acceptable lag. Outside that could be considered an ERROR. Martin Laird had 8 opportunities of 20 feet+ in his final round. Five were distance control busts (13% to 19%), but three were winners (0% - holed, 2% and the final 4%). Overall, his distance control for the final round was an acceptable 10%.
If we assume two lag results for Martin on #18 from 87 feet of 7% and 10%. He would be left with putts of 6' 1" or 8' 6" respectively. What are the odds of 1 vs. 2 putts from those distances? Back to the Tour:
YTD 2011 - % 1-Putt
Lag to % Distance (ft.) Laird Tour Avg.
7% 6 ft. 54% 70%
10% 9 ft. 56% 46%
Good job, Johnny Miller! Your odds of a playoff (3-putt) of 40% were spot-on. Given a good or acceptable lag, according to my study, Martin would have had been in a playoff in the 46% to 44% range. Fortunately for Martin, his lag was OUTSTANDING - 3' 7" or 4% - well done!
Finally, as I have said before, I recommend that the rest of us use the 10% Rule when evaluating our lag opportunities. If nothing else, the math is so much easier!
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