Monday, March 5, 2012

How Close is Tiger?

TIGER's SHOT BY SHOT.com PUTTING HANDICAPS
2012 Honda Classic

I had almost forgotten how much fun it was to see Tiger charging at the end of a PGA Tour event.  My peaked interest in this week's Honda Classic motivated me to watch the action LIVE, which I almost never do - I hate the commercials.  I prefer to record the telecast and tune in about half way.  This allows me to  fast forward through the commercials and "fluff" to finish in time to catch any playoff live.  But this event was exciting from the beginning of the Golf Channel telecast thanks to Tiger's early tee time and great play.

My extended viewing caused me to hear lots of pundit-speak about how close Tiger was, and opinions on what he needed to return to form.  I will admit that the Sunday morning experts alluded to Tiger's putting, but once again showed their lack of sophistication (or their AGE) by citing the number of putts spent in the first three rounds - COME ON PEOPLE!  Tiger's Strokes Gained - Putting stats laid it out clearly.  He gave up 2.35 strokes to the field in the first two rounds (3.6 strokes to Rory McIlroy).  His putting improved in the third round to gain 1.43 strokes on the field but still .6 strokes behind Rory.  Tiger's putting in the final round was exceptional but so was Rory's.  Overall, Tiger gained .56 strokes on the field, but LOST 3.9 strokes to Rory.  Bear in mind, this is putting alone - the one part of the game where we no longer need to guess.

Considering Tiger fell short by just two strokes, it would indicate that the rest of Tiger's game stands up well to the World's new #1.  I looked more closely and agree that it did, at least in this event.

Long Game
Tiger needed only 32.9 long game strokes to achieve 12.5 GIR's  per round while Rory needed 32.2 long strokes to reach 12 GIR's.  In addition to hitting two more GIR's, Tiger's average proximity to the hole was 20 feet - four feet closer than Rory's 24 foot avg.  I give the long game edge to Tiger.

Short Game
Tiger had 26 short game opportunities to Rory's 30.  While Rory clearly won the "Up-and-Down" battle (73% vs. 62%), as I have preached for years - that stat is a composite of short game + PUTTING.  A better measurement would be proximity to the hole.  Rory also won this one but only by one foot (5' 10" vs. 6' 11").  When I think about standing over it, that is an important 13 inches.  That said, we can give the short game edge to Rory - but not by much.

Bottom line, it was clearly Rory's putting prowess that won the day.  Congratulations Rory!  Tiger, welcome back!  Whatever you and Sean Foley worked on after Friday's round did the trick.  Keep up the good work and I look forward to  watching more live TV - it's good for the game.

2 comments:

  1. This is all great stuff. How can the average person track strokes gained? If they can't do that what putting stat that you use is most important?

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    1. Great question! Thanks. The putting analysis included in Shotbyshot.com is the exact same method. The difference, our players are compared to our extensive database and receive an accurate putting handicap - as well relevant comparative performance data by distance range. It's easy and it works!

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