Wednesday, May 9, 2012

No wonder Rickie Fowler hasn't WON before!

I have never paid much attention to Rickie Fowler - although he is hard to miss when he shows up dressed like a giant creamsicle.  But then, if I were paid what I can only guess he is paid, I would probably...  In what little I have seen of Rickie on TV, I have concluded that he is a poor putter.  He just seems to miss too many key putts when in the spotlight.  So when I saw him sneaking up the leaderboard on Sunday at Quail Hollow I assumed that he would fall short, again.  The fact that he hung on to win surprised me and made me question my belief that Rickie's weakness is his putting.  As I try to study the winner of every event, I looked forward to taking a close look at Rickie and what he did to get his first win.

First, my impressions were correct - Rickie is a POOR putter - by PGA Tour standards.  In this event he simply putted well enough to squeak by.  The Strokes Gained Putting stats - by far the Tour's BEST stat -  support my point (for an explanation of this stat, see: At-last-putting-analysis-we-can-trust):
  • Fowler's Strokes Gained total of .672 at Quail Hollow was the second worst of the 13 Winners that I have studied this season.  Only Justin Rose putted worse in his win at Doral (.114).  
  • The 2012 Winners have averaged 1.549.  This means they have gained 1.5+ strokes on the field per round, or just over six strokes per 4-round event. 
  • Rickie has recorded NEGATIVE Strokes Gained putting totals in SIX of the TEN "measured" events this season.   (Measured means tour ShotLink data is collected.)
  • His average for these six events is -1.345 vs. only .695 for the three positive Strokes Gained totals.
  • For the season to date, Rickie is ranked 140 in this important stat.  His overall average per round is -.235.
  • This is clearly why Rickie has had trouble getting a win on Tour.  Just like the old adage that "99% of putts that don't reach the hole, don't go in" - I can add that 99% of players that give back strokes to the field on the greens, DON'T WIN!  
So how did Rickie win at Quail Hollow?
Very simply, his long game carried him to victory.  It was sharp and efficient and featured zero serious errors.  His short game complemented his long game in that it was solid and also produced no errors.  Rickie's putting - just good enough.

Driving - 2nd in accuracy, but more importantly, no penalty strokes on a very difficult driving golf course with many well-placed hazards.

GIR's - Ranked 5th with 14.25.  This is very good -  the 2012 Winners average just under 13 GIR's.

Proximity ARG - Ranked 8th @ 5' 10."  This is the stat that measures the putting distance after every shot that starts within 30 yards of the edge of the green.  The field avg. was 7' 3."

Hopefully Rickie's coach has recognized and is addressing the glaring weakness in Rickie's game.  Clearly, if he expects to contend with top tier players on the PGA Tour, he needs dramatic improvement in his putting. 

3 comments:

  1. Good stuff. I had shotbyshot 2 yrs ago and didn't use it last year. I will get it again and look forward to reading more posts. It really helped my game and look forward to having that data again.

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  2. Also, is there a way to eventually track all of your putts so a strokes gained/lossed and be compared to various handicaps? I can understand it being too much info for most but would love to have that data if possible. Maybe an upgraded subscription option?

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  3. Adam,
    The system does this now but behind the scenes. Your Putting Handicap is based upon you strokes "lost" or "save" = Gained or lost and your Putting handicap is the result. As you indicated, I do not go into the exact numbers of lost or saved as it is too much for most golfers.
    Thanks for your interest.
    Peter

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