Perspective on Appleby's 59 and Overton's 4-foot Miss

I was able to watch last weekend's PGA Tour event as it happened and was glued to Stuart Appleby's every move.  I have long found him to be a compelling, classy player and was rooting hard for both the 59 and the win.  Jeff Overton made it interesting but I felt showed his immaturity (and not-yet-ready-to-win attitude) with his mini-tantrum after missing the 4-foot birdie putt on the 17th hole.  Ian Baker-Finch was generous in agreeing that the ball hit something because I watched the replay a couple of times and saw no bump or change of direction.  It looked like a nervous "get this over with" pull.  We all know that stroke.  Jeff's "not my fault" reaction was way over the top and he clearly never recovered until his desperation putt on 18 - which was impressive.   More on the unfortunate 3-putt later.

The Old White Course
As I analyzed the performance data, I was reminded of a great friend's story:  While on a joint family vacation with another close friend, the two Dads snuck out for an early round while their families slept in.  They had a great match and both played exceptionally well, recording 68 and 69 respectively on a really tough golf course.  Back in the hotel, Dad #1 enthusiastically relayed the story of the two sub-par scores to his family.  His son, a young athlete and golfer, barely looked up from his TV show to say:  "It must be an easy course!"  

I do not want to detract from Appleby's great performance BUT the scoring and data could lead one to say: "It must be an easy course!"  Appleby blew away my 70% Rule with a combined average of 80%, but the field's 65% came closer than I have ever seen to the magic 70% Rule for Winners on the PGA Tour.  For more on this see my June 10th post - Last Time on 70% Rule.  The major difference was in the important GIR %.  Appleby hit 79% but the field was close behind at 77%.  This is considerably above the Tour Avg. of 65%.  The relative length of the golf course (only 7,020), and damp, windless conditions made the greens both accessible and receptive.  I hope that next year the weather and course conditions will better protect this great old design.

The 3-Putt    
Jeff Overton was on track to tie for the lead when he hit the par-5, 17th hole in two.  A 2-putt for 49' 4" was all he needed to go to the short par 3, 18th tied with Appleby.  His lag was appropriately described as "a difficult 2-putt" by David Feherty.  More than the length, it was down-hill, side-hill to the hole.  Jeff's lag was a good one to leave the ball 3' 8".  Why?  Because my study of Top-10 performers on the PGA Tour revealed that they tend to lag within 7%* of the original distance.  In this case anything inside 4 feet qualifies - well done on the first part Jeff.  Here's the problem, and why I don't accept that Jeff was blameless in the subsequent miss.  He had already missed a 3' 6" putt in the 3rd round.  Could that have been a nagging, negative memory as he stood over a putt that he needed to  have a chance for his first win on Tour?

Finally, the Tour average for holing 4 foot putts is 91%.  Jeff's YTD average is slightly better at 94% but, tragically for him, a dismal 60% for this event.  For perspective, the average 10 handicap makes 75% of their 4 footers.  

*On distance control expectations, I recommend that we amateurs think in terms of 10% lag distances for two reasons:  First, we are a long way from the Tour level and second, the math is considerably easier.