An 8 Iron Hit 182 Yards to 1 Foot - What Are the Odds?

In a recent post, I wrote about Tiger Woods' blueprint for winning golf tournaments. I referred to one of the key Tiger intangibles as "the shot," or his ability to transcend talent and conjure up magic when he most needs it. This week it was the 182 yard approach shot to the par 5, 16th green at Firestone South.

The stage was set perfectly as Tiger was one down to Padraig Harrington. Both had hit poor drives requiring layups to awkward positions, if not distances. Tiger was in the fairway, but much further back than he would have wanted, especially considering that the pin was cut in the front of the green and very close to the water. Under the circumstances, to hit and hold the green would have been considered a great golf shot. Here are a few niblicks of perspective on exactly how magical his shot to 1 foot should be considered:

1. % Greens Hit in Regulation from 175 to 200 yards: 2009 YTD, Tiger has hit the green from this distance with 61% of his attempts (Rank #16). The average of the PGA Tour is 54%.

2. Proximity to the Pin from 175 - 200 yards. 2009 YTD, Tiger averages 29 feet (Rank #1). PGA Tour average: 34 feet.

Let's step back and analyze this. Tiger is one of the best on tour from this distance range. But even then, he only hits the green 61% of the time and leaves an average putting distance of 29 feet.

How does this compare to the rest of us mortal golfers? Our Shotbyshot.com statistical database tells us that from a distance of 181 to 190 yards, in the fairway, the 10 handicap golfer would hit the green 38% of the time. Imagine what that number would be when faced with a similar challange - 1 down on #16 over water, etc., I'd wager that 38% drops to under 10%!