Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The PGA - Tiger will be fine, but I worry about Padraig Harrington

OK, so Tiger Woods just lost his first major golf tournament while in the lead after 3 rounds. It had to happen at some point but if it weren't for a very solid round by an unlikely candidate, Tiger was on track for #15. All of the usual subjects were playing by the script and had quietly disappeared by the 9th hole. Only Y.E. Yang was happy to hang around the lead with Tiger. He gave golf's #1 player a bit of his own medicine when he chipped in for eagle on #14 and Tiger was forced to hole an 8 foot, birdie putt just to stay one behind - big sigh of relief around my TV.

After Yang played a poor pitch to the par-5, 15th and Tiger failed to make a 12 foot birdie putt (again!), I submit that Mr. Yang came very close to the "C" word and to giving the tournament away. Not once, but twice.
1st: On the difficult 16th, he made the unthinkable mistake by missing his approach to the right of the flag tucked on the right side of the green, precariously close to the hazard. The gods shined on Y.A. as the ball barely caught the fringe and stuck. Another two feet to the right and his ball most certainly would have bounced into the hazard - Tiger wins!
2nd: On #17, with a 2-putt for par, albeit from about 40 feet, Yang would almost certainly have gained a 2 stroke lead. But he left his lag putt 8 feet short and missed - bogey. Again, he was saved because Tiger's aggressive approach bounced just over the green and into a very difficult lie resulting in his bogey.

So what happened to Tiger? A combination of three things:

1. He simply had "one of those days" on the greens. After he mis-read the 6-foot birdie putt on #1 and burned the edge on #2 from 14 feet for birdie - both putts that he (and the rest of us) expect him to make - I believe he began to doubt his reads. On the back 9 alone, I calculate that Tiger missed six of seven putts inside 14 feet. Each one was either a very minor mis-read or hit a bit too hard or soft, or a combination thereof.

2. Hats off to Nick Faldo who, at the start of the telecast, predicted that the strong, gusting crosswinds would give Tiger difficulty. And they did. They were certainly the primary cause of the missed greens on 17 and 18. Under the circumstances, Tiger was forced to be aggressive and and the gusting winds made it almost impossible to be as precise as he needed to be. Again, Tiger's uncertainty on the tee at the difficult, par-3 8th hole led to another missed green and bogey. And this is just to list the obvious ones.

3. Y. A. Yang handled the conditions and the pressure extremely well.

Aquaphobia! I bet Padraig Harrington will be nervous taking a shower.
Astonishingly, for the second week in a row Padraig literally drowned his chances of a win. His meltdown that resulted in an eight on the par-3 8th hole on Sunday was difficult to watch. To make matters worse, the network chose to splice in the prior week's mistake.

Here is a niblick of perspective: the average golfer on the PGA Tour will miss the green from within 50 yards of the flag approximately six percent of the time - 6 of every 100 opportunities. This ShotByShot.com stat includes all shots and all degrees of difficulty. Granted, Padraig was faced with two very difficult opportunities, but not only are missed greens infrequent for a PGA Tour player, a miss that results in a penalty is so rare that I don't even track it.

It is often said that the great ones must have short memories. But these two dramatic wounds have to leave deep scars for Padraig. I will be interested to see how he deals with it, and as a fan, I am rooting for him to prevail.

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