Liberty National: Looked Like a Major

This new golf venue showed itself exceptionally well during the telecasts this weekend. Sadly, for the vast majority of the golfing public, the TV is as close as they will ever get to this ultra-exclusive, private club.

I am fortunate to have played Liberty National late last year, and can report that it is breathtaking. Once you catch your breath, however, and get down to working your way around the golf course, the design features grab your full attention. This golf course is hard!

The designers took advantage of just about every known defense against scoring. Once you are bitten, the obstacles seem to loom larger and more prominently with every hole. First, as the announcers noted, the course was built on a relatively small parcel of land so it is tight, but fairly long at 7,419 yards. (We played about 7,000 which was all we could handle and more.) The fairways are bordered by a combination of water, deep bunkers, long fescue and trees. The greens are well protected by bunkers, false fronts, sides and backs and fairly severe undulations.

Don't get me wrong. Liberty National is not an unfair golf course, but it is demanding, especially off the tees, and it punishes errors sternly. I estimate that the average 10 handicap would need at least six balls to finish a round, and would not leave feeling confident about the overall strength of their game - and that is if they play an appropriate set of tees. My group of grizzled veterans relished the challenge and thoroughly enjoyed the journey. Fortunately we had enough ammo and departed energized by the beauty and competitive experience with only minor bruises to our egos. That said, I was anxious to see how the pro's handled it and admit to taking some pleasure in what Liberty did to the best in the world.

Let's just compare the profile of the winner (Heath Slocum) to that of the winners of non-Major PGA Tournaments in 2009:

Score: Heath's -9 total is six shots higher than the -15.25 average of the 32 prior regular PGA Tour events. By comparison, the four major winners averaged -6.5. Personally, I find the more difficult tests to be much more interesting.

Driving Errors: Heath made three tee shot errors (2 were "No shot" results that required advancements to get the ball back in play and the third was a penalty). The prior winners have averaged approximately one such error in 4 rounds. Tiger, only 1 shot back, made an uncharacteristic six driving errors this week.

GIR's: Heath hit 11.5 greens which was good (tied for 6th). The field at Liberty National averaged an incredibly low 9.9 GIR's while the average of the previous winners is 13.5 GIR's.

Long Game Efficiency*: Heath needed 3+ long game strokes for every green hit in regulation. The previous winners average 2.4 long game strokes for each GIR.

*This refers to our patented method for measuring overall Long Game performance. For a better explanation, log on to www.shotbyshot.com.

As I said, the course is particularly demanding off the tee and punishes errant shots.

Here are two more Niblicks of Truth:
Last week, I wrote about Steve Marino's putting issues - especially in the 6 to 10 foot range. Steve hung near the lead this week until he shot 40 on the final 9 holes to fall into a tie for 15th. While I did not collect and analyze his data, I watched and believe that his putting frustrations finally got to him and affected the rest of his game.

Speaking of that critical 6 to 10 foot range, Tiger made only 5 of 14 (36%). His normal success in this range is 65%. His struggles were punctuated by a miss from 7 feet on the final hole to tie the lead - he really is human!

Wonder if Steve Marino Knows How Close He Was (is) at the Wyndham?

Steve Marino is one of the recognizable newcomers on the PGA Golf Tour but has yet to win. He has made almost $5 million dollars in three years and has gotten very close to victory with two 2nd's and 14 Top-10's. Marino tied for 10th at the Wyndham Championship last weekend and was only three strokes behind the leaders and a play-off. Wouldn't Steve Marino - and the rest of us - like to know where his golf game fell short? Unfortunately his "Key Stats" on the Tour's website were typically vague (see above). To help with the analysis I ran his data through the ShotByShot.com models to see exactly where and why he missed out on his first victory.

Long Game Efficiency:
Steve's long game compared very favorably to the three players that tied for the lead and to our 2009 Winner's Profile ("Winners").
Greens-Hit-in-Regulation: 14 vs 13.75 Winners
Long Game Efficiency Index*: 2.35 vs 2.32 Winners
ShotByShot.com Long Game Handciap: +7 vs. +7 Winners

*This is our patented method of measuring the overall efficiency of a player's long game. For a better explanation, log onto http://www.shotbyshot.com/.

Short Game:

Marino's average short game shots finished within 5 feet of the hole, and he saved 75%. This compares favorably to the Winners database (5.3 feet and 69% saved).

Sand Game:

I am ignoring the Sand game because coincidentally all four of the players analyzed had just one opportunity and simply hit their shots on the green and 2-putted from similar distances.

Putting:
This is where Marino fell short, and the deficiency was especially glaring when I processed his putting data by distance:
ShotByShot.com Putting Handicap: +1 vs. +4 Winners

For putts in the 6 to 10 foot range, Marino made only 2 of 13 (15%) vs. 62% Winners. The three players that tied for the lead at the Wyndham made 65% of their putts in this critical range. (Ironically, the winner - Ryan Moore - was the worst with 8 of 14, or 57%.) Had Steve Marino made just 6 of his 13 opportunities (46%), he would have still been just below the average of the PGA Tour in the 6 to 10 foot range (50%), but he would have secured his 1st victory by 1 shot!

The PGA - Tiger will be fine, but I worry about Padraig Harrington

OK, so Tiger Woods just lost his first major golf tournament while in the lead after 3 rounds. It had to happen at some point but if it weren't for a very solid round by an unlikely candidate, Tiger was on track for #15. All of the usual subjects were playing by the script and had quietly disappeared by the 9th hole. Only Y.E. Yang was happy to hang around the lead with Tiger. He gave golf's #1 player a bit of his own medicine when he chipped in for eagle on #14 and Tiger was forced to hole an 8 foot, birdie putt just to stay one behind - big sigh of relief around my TV.

After Yang played a poor pitch to the par-5, 15th and Tiger failed to make a 12 foot birdie putt (again!), I submit that Mr. Yang came very close to the "C" word and to giving the tournament away. Not once, but twice.

1st: On the difficult 16th, he made the unthinkable mistake by missing his approach to the right of the flag tucked on the right side of the green, precariously close to the hazard. The gods shined on Y.A. as the ball barely caught the fringe and stuck. Another two feet to the right and his ball most certainly would have bounced into the hazard - Tiger wins!

2nd: On #17, with a 2-putt for par, albeit from about 40 feet, Yang would almost certainly have gained a 2 stroke lead. But he left his lag putt 8 feet short and missed - bogey. Again, he was saved because Tiger's aggressive approach bounced just over the green and into a very difficult lie resulting in his bogey.

So what happened to Tiger? A combination of three things:

1. He simply had "one of those days" on the greens. After he mis-read the 6-foot birdie putt on #1 and burned the edge on #2 from 14 feet for birdie - both putts that he (and the rest of us) expect him to make - I believe he began to doubt his reads. On the back 9 alone, I calculate that Tiger missed six of seven putts inside 14 feet. Each one was either a very minor mis-read or hit a bit too hard or soft, or a combination thereof.

2. Hats off to Nick Faldo who, at the start of the telecast, predicted that the strong, gusting crosswinds would give Tiger difficulty. And they did. They were certainly the primary cause of the missed greens on 17 and 18. Under the circumstances, Tiger was forced to be aggressive and and the gusting winds made it almost impossible to be as precise as he needed to be. Again, Tiger's uncertainty on the tee at the difficult, par-3 8th hole led to another missed green and bogey. And this is just to list the obvious ones.

3. Y. A. Yang handled the conditions and the pressure extremely well.

Aquaphobia! I bet Padraig Harrington will be nervous taking a shower.
Astonishingly, for the second week in a row Padraig literally drowned his chances of a win. His meltdown that resulted in an eight on the par-3 8th hole on Sunday was difficult to watch. To make matters worse, the network chose to splice in the prior week's mistake.

Here is a niblick of perspective: the average golfer on the PGA Tour will miss the green from within 50 yards of the flag approximately six percent of the time - 6 of every 100 opportunities. This ShotByShot.com stat includes all shots and all degrees of difficulty. Granted, Padraig was faced with two very difficult opportunities, but not only are missed greens infrequent for a PGA Tour player, a miss that results in a penalty is so rare that I don't even track it.

It is often said that the great ones must have short memories. But these two dramatic wounds have to leave deep scars for Padraig. I will be interested to see how he deals with it, and as a fan, I am rooting for him to prevail.

An 8 Iron Hit 182 Yards to 1 Foot - What Are the Odds?

In a recent post, I wrote about Tiger Woods' blueprint for winning golf tournaments. I referred to one of the key Tiger intangibles as "the shot," or his ability to transcend talent and conjure up magic when he most needs it. This week it was the 182 yard approach shot to the par 5, 16th green at Firestone South.

The stage was set perfectly as Tiger was one down to Padraig Harrington. Both had hit poor drives requiring layups to awkward positions, if not distances. Tiger was in the fairway, but much further back than he would have wanted, especially considering that the pin was cut in the front of the green and very close to the water. Under the circumstances, to hit and hold the green would have been considered a great golf shot. Here are a few niblicks of perspective on exactly how magical his shot to 1 foot should be considered:

1. % Greens Hit in Regulation from 175 to 200 yards: 2009 YTD, Tiger has hit the green from this distance with 61% of his attempts (Rank #16). The average of the PGA Tour is 54%.

2. Proximity to the Pin from 175 - 200 yards. 2009 YTD, Tiger averages 29 feet (Rank #1). PGA Tour average: 34 feet.

Let's step back and analyze this. Tiger is one of the best on tour from this distance range. But even then, he only hits the green 61% of the time and leaves an average putting distance of 29 feet.

How does this compare to the rest of us mortal golfers? Our Shotbyshot.com statistical database tells us that from a distance of 181 to 190 yards, in the fairway, the 10 handicap golfer would hit the green 38% of the time. Imagine what that number would be when faced with a similar challange - 1 down on #16 over water, etc., I'd wager that 38% drops to under 10%!

How Important is 5 Feet?

During the Buick Invitational Sunday telecast, the announcers mentioned more than once that Tiger Woods had made 100% of his putts inside 5 feet - 40 out of 40 for the golf tournament. On his 41st attempt the "announcer's curse" did not get him, and he continued the streak on his 42nd attempt. Unfortunately, I lost the recording due to lightning so did not hear if they continued coverage of this aspect of Tiger's performance. Nevertheless, thanks to ShotLink I was able to confirm that he remained perfect from this distance for an event total of 49 out of 49 putting attempts from inside 5 feet.

Our ShotByShot.com data long ago revealed that 5 feet is a magic distance and that it warrants appropriate attention and practice time. Tiger has obviously figured this out, too, and has spent time making sure that he maximizes these key opportunities. We can all learn from his consistent and committed approach to these critical putts.

Tiger exhibits a consistent approach and highly practiced routine. But as with just about everything, there is an important added variable. I believe Tiger chooses the appropriate speed for each putt that maximizes the size of the hole in that particular instance. In the past, most of the greats have become known generally as "die it in the holers" (Nicklaus) or "aggressive" (Watson in his prime). Tiger is not consistently in one mode or the other. Rather, he adjusts his speed to match each specific opportunity. This tactic alone is not totally unusual but Tiger's unique ability to remain committed to the line and speed chosen for each putt is part of his greatness.

Here is what I take away from Tiger's example:

1. Practice putts in the 3, 4 and 5 foot range. The "Star Drill" is a good one and is described in the FAQ's & More section of the Golfer Home page of the ShotByShot.com website. (If you're not already a subscriber, you can register for a free trial subscription to access this part of the site.)
2. Categorize these putts (as with all lengths) as green, yellow and red light opportunities. Build this into your practice routine.
Green light - Uphill: be aggressive as there is little or no chance of a 3-putt. A firmer, more aggressive line will serve to increase the relative size of the hole and your percentage made.
Yellow light - Slightly side-hill: medium speed will tend to hold your intended line but not run away if you miss.
Red light - Downhill or downhill/side-hill: plan to die the ball over the lip and play all the break that is needed to do so.

Obviously, if you are in a match play situation and the next putt matters not, you should adjust your categories accordingly. Let me know how this works for your game!